Member Info for potnak

I don't have a probability of failure. I just know it could happen and I'm ok with the fact that it might. I'm on a free ride now so if it does, other than the hundreds of hours I've spent on this board, I won't have 'lost' anything. Like I said, I work from the worst-case scenario. Works with most AIM industries. Pharma, oil explorers and miners. Stick £5k in, knowing that it is likely that you will lose it and if you get out with £6k you've won. I don't care if the potential is £60k, I've still won. Served me well over the years. Only had one major setback and that was on the main market, OXB. 90% of my holding gone in an instant. I vowed that would never happen to me again and up to now, it hasn't.

Do you think the secret patent is for Covid? if yes, what could it be for? Serious question. Could they not have tweaked the compound specifically for respiratory. I know it is technically still an autoimmune illness.

Aber - yes, this. The 1801 compound is way bigger than Covid and the immune side of things needs to be insulated from any rushed covid trials. If the secret patent is covid related and can separate respiratory illness from immune then the brakes will be well and truly off. I said last year that we might even see an 1803 compound. We or whoever took it on would need to do another POC and preclinical work but it would be so much more cleaner to do deals and would the potential value of TYK2 (based on the high end of other deals) at £2.4 billion. Add SRA737 into the mix and we aren't far off a pound a share just based on upfront and milestones.

Living the dream, Mafuta. I'm 51. A good result here will see me retire at 55 with a nice income. A bad outcome and it will be 60 on an adequate income. An exceptional result, 40p or more means I retire when the deal is announced.

Punters back a 100 to 1 horse knowing it is very unlikely that it will win.

I do sell the odd 100k of SAR shares. I'm now down to 2.3 million shares. Not sure why wanting to know both sides of the story means I no longer hold shares but in the grand scheme of things my £150k profit means I don't care what others think. Hopefully, when we have the SAR party. We can discuss attitude to risk and a balanced view over a pint or something stronger.

Hi SOG. I used the first link in the list. I said it was quick. The point is that you have now spent time to back up your argument but who are you trying to convince. I'm already sold and invested and I believe I will make a nice profit. However, statistically, based on your figures. There is a 96.6% chance of a failure for 1802. Thank you for that: Noted. Still a lot of upside before we get to the binary choice of won/lose. All good here.

I work in IT Service Management. I always start from the worst-case scenario. Any other outcome is a win.

Ha ha, Fax. He is filtering someone who thinks we could be worth 2 billion with successful P1 trails out of the way.

HotBlack - I'm counting on the pharma's getting FOMO, and they will but as ever, timing will be key to maximising profit here.

SOG. A quick google tells me. Only 5 out 5000 preclinical drugs make it to P1 and P2 and only 9.6% of P1 drugs make it to market. Why should I think SAR are any different? You can't say 1801 and 1802 are tox free until the data from P1 is out. If you could we'd already be 50p. I've been in a P3 failure and I closely watched the car crash that was IMM. The long-termers there were just as informed as the LTH's here.

Don't get me wrong, I do believe the is a lot more upside here, I'm just not kidding myself that it is a dead cert.

Maybe they are agreeing, like me, it could be either. IMO, thinking it is exclusively one or the other is wrong.

WIP. It's just experience of the wild west that is AIM, although crypto is making AIM companies seem like blue chips. I'm under no illusion that the chance of failure here is still really high but I also know that I might, just might have picked the hundred bagger I've been searching for. You can't apply any of the normal financial logic to Sareum. No fundamentals, no order book, no forecasts, no major assets. Essentially, Sareum is a vehicle to pay the board and do a bit of science. The value is in the science and the protection we have in the patents. Right now it doesn't matter if you think it will fail or succeed, what matters is the pharma's will want in on the action.

OK, IMO. SAR will not be around. We will have been swallowed by a bigger company.

And that's why we are sitting at 7p and not 50p. The value will realised with each deal as it is made. None of us will be around once the drugs go into production. That is when your critical thinking will come into play.

It's not critical thinking though. You are over thinking it. Sareum will not be over exposed to inflation, exchange rates or Covid restrictions until a buyout or we go into production and as I'm currently approx 900% up, I don't really care if inflation eats into that.

You can't apply this sort of thinking to an AIM company and a virtual one at that. We have no order book, no supply chain as such. Just a couple of full-time directors and some part-time NEDS. Apart from Gas, Leccy and office space what else is there? Even the lab work is outsourced. We know there are supply issues for raw materials and the labs may be affected but it will amount to a few quid here and there. The market cap is purely based on the IP, that's it. The question you should ask yourself is. What is the IP worth?

Not much else I can say that hasn't been said, notalot. Take each day as it comes and all will be good.

Schrodinger's MM corruption.

Lol, James. It's the main thing that baffles me on these boards. Of course, shorters probably do call out MM corruption when the price is going up. Nowt as queer as folk as they say in the north. Pretty sure that word won't be in the post when I click send.

Nor said it for a while but Thursday is always a good day for a transformational RNS. Not saying today but, soon.

Don't know about long term hold. This has a 30% increase written all over it. I'll stick my neck out and say we'll be back in the 9p range within 6 weeks. It is a long term 10 bagger though.