Member Info for potnak

Yes but its all about expectation. Just because the LTH think that were going to get £400 mil upfront and £2 billion in milestones doesn't mean that anything less than that is low ball. I'm expecting and have always expected more like £10 million up front and £800 million in milestones so anything less than that would be a low ball when compared to my expectations.

Yes, I expect the SP to recover once MSCI investors start buying in. However, I also expect the MM's to take this down further before that happens. On your 'low ball offer'. What is a low ball offer? I think some here think we're going to get 3 or 400 hundred million upfront and billions in milestones. That is never going to happen with a preclinical compound. Tim shared some deal sizes done with other companies. Maybe Ahfam could post here again? Im sure he has them to hand. They are in a couple of RNS form a few years ago. Read that valuation and compare to where Sareum, is in the development of our compounds. The big deals are done in P2 and P3 and we are at least 3 years away from that (probably 5 years away in Sareum years).

Couldn't agree more, Spurs and as you say the science hasn't changed and on a positive note, the new patent has extended the saleable life of the compound. Either do a raise and get moving or licence it to a pharma who have their own labs and supply chains. We've been told we are coming to the end of preclinical since 2019, possibly before that. It is not all covid. Sareum has also moved the goalposts. I 'think' Tim is trying to protect the potential value and that is great but there comes a point where a virtual company needs help and that time is now. I've always said, I'd be happy with a low upfront licence deal as long as the back end is loaded with chunky milestones and get-out clauses so they can't do a sierra to us. We are too small to do this on our own, just get the deal done or raise enough cash for us to open our own doors.

On L2 want to buy at 3.9 and sell at 4.4. They want their share too.

The drop was inevitable after that last presentation. Adding a 9 month delay on top of was already 9 months delayed is suicide on AIM. AIM investors are mostly short-term in their outlook and they are voting with their feet. They will be back when we are nearer the CTA. I do think the board will have something good in the way of institutional investment to tell us but the SP could slip down into the 3's in the short term and maybe all the way to the 2's. At this point, you'll start to hit the LTH averages and we will stoically hold the line as we always do.

IMO, I think Peel Hunt have been engaged to do what we've been told they will do. Get us in front of institutions that invest in biotech. but if you really want to go down the TO rabbit hole. Maybe look at the big pharmas that have worked or currently use Peel Hunt as advisors or brokers. usually in M and A you'd try to use the same broker for the sale and purchase. I'm working so don't have the time but for the super sleuths out there. It might be fun.

Not sure what you mean Blastoid? I believe SAR will be worth 2 billion when all compounds are progressing through trials. SAR told me that would be Q1 this year, then Q1 next year, then H2 next year. I still believe SAR will be worth 2 billion, I now just have to wait until 2023, probably. My glass is half full all the time but the last presentation was terrible IMO. They gave us delays but offered nothing to prop up the SP while we wait. So, unless Tim has something up his sleeve, I will wait but not get too stressed about the SP dropping.

We're worth at least 20p, unite. Even at this stage in the development. The warrants on the last subscription are 10.25p.

I know but if it is a TR1 it would indicate a sell but no one person owns that many shares. Even the best brokers would struggle to buy that many shares whilst dropping the SP by 40%. I think all market sentiment has gone. The company have basically said nothing to see here come back next year. On the FT. Only one analyst has put in a forecast and they've said 1.9p in the next year. https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=SAR:LSE

It means nothing in the grand scheme of things but the market can smell blood. I just hope Tim has something up his sleeve in time for the AGM.

3% = 100 million shares. That's a lot of shares to buy or sell on minimal volume. You'd need a good broker to buy that many shares and get you a lower price each day.

I sort of agree with that thinking, Mike but until toxicity and other pre clinical data is in then it isn't a 50% chance. It's much less. I think we will be worth 2 billion once 1801 and 02 are in trials, assuming 737 is progressing too. I've just reset my expectations as to when that might be.

I don't know how it works, Rusky. The brokering arm might be completely disconnected from the Market Makers. Doesn't stop them 'talking' down the pub though. We could get an early warning of news if they start posting wild swings in the bid and ask.

PH will be good for us. I don't think it's a TO yet, I think they have been engaged to get a cheque that will cover the P1 trials 1801 and 1802. Hopefully, it will be at a premium above the last subscription. £20 million should cover it.

They are still an MM and currently have the bid @ 4.9p and the ask @5.4p.

I have wondered how this works. Peel Hunt is listed as one of SAR's MM's. Do we expect them to drop off that list at some point? Is it legal to be a broker and an MM for the same company? Seems like a conflict of interest to me.

It's a moot point but yes, I would question a delay at 8p as that is under the last subscription price. We can speculate and second guess all we want but based on the IM presentation and the answers to the Q and A SAR have effectively added an 18-month delay to the timescales they stated in last years AGM. I have a six-figure sum tied up in a company that is worth hundreds of millions. It's ok to question delays and still be bearish about the future. This cult like behaviour where the LTH stifle any discussion that is perceived as negative as an agenda to lower the price is ridiculous. I do have an agenda, buy low, sell high but I won't be buying more unless the SP falls off a cliff. If we don't get news before the AGM, it may well do that.

GF. I said I'm over it. I will wait (again) but how many more delays will it take for the rest of you to start asking questions. Sareum HAVE introduced the delays, we have added extra steps such as the patent and route to manufacturing. We didn't need to do these steps to on licence. They could have been done afterwards and they were never in the plans started in Dec last year and in the summer this year. Something doesn't add up. It's easy for us LTH to wait it out. We're sitting on significant profits and we are used to sitting on our hands but any new investors and the HNWI must be feeling a bit ****ed off at the lack of progress, especially as the CTA date changed since the last update in the summer. I'll keep quiet about it but i'm pretty sure as the SP falls in the run-up to the AGM. I won't be the only one voicing concerns. On a positive note, the underlying fundamentals and science haven't changed, it's just the timescales. We will see 9p again and hopefully much more.

The delays have annoyed me because, contrary to what other here think. The delays seem to be of our making. We moved the goal posts. The is probably a very good reason for doing so we just have to trust them to retain the value they added. Its, rirtg noting that all the added value cane with the HNWI subscription so if PH can bring more investors on board, I don't see any reason why that can't happen again.

I'm not sure, Aber. They have been pretty specific with the answers. IMO, the only news we'll get before the AGM is what PH are brining to the game, will they get dome II's on board? I'd also like to see a broker note on potential value and we may get some movement on 737. Even with the rind at our back, it is unlikely that 1801 will be in trials for Covid or Immune until this time next year. It is what it is. Just got to reset our expectations.

It's a valid thread and Fadec makes some good points. It isn't about negativity, its about resetting our expectations. They've given us a timetime and it's highly unlikely that we will get a deal on TYK2 until pre clinical is complete. I'm ok with that as long as they don't kick the can down the road again. For Covid and agile, it's still 1801 and Tim stated we still have to complete preclinical to enter Agile. We might get dome news on 737 but I can't see any trials starting until Q2 2022. The only thing Tim has in his pocket is PH. Let's hope they can bring in some investors before the AGM for our and Tim's sake. Delays do matter and if we'd entered P1 in q1 2021 like they said we would, we'd be in Covid trials by now instead of next autumn, if we are lucky. As Thoth always says, sit on your hands and ride it out if you can. Buy more on the dips.