Member Info for potnak

With no TR1 this morning. All we really know is they have less 3% of shares in issue. I think we will get an RNS late this afternoon stating we are giving them another 3 million. Not a problem if demand is still high. It would be nice if we could get and accurate balance of amount owed in the RNS. Hopefully we are well under £500k now.

They look like buys to me.

First thing. If the TYK2 compounds work and get to market, they are worth billions, not just "billions" billions per annum. That's undeniable. However, we don't know if they work, no one does. So, with safety and toxicity almost a given, we need funds to test, trial and prove efficacy. Calculating fair value right now is tricky. If we were fully funded, then 2 to 300 million, would be out of the question. I'm not talk TO value here, I'm talking market cap. Get good solid funding, start 1801 2a and we should see the MC head towards the 100s of million region. If we get just enough funding, then it will leave doubt and new shareholders will be cautious and with the recent track record, they should be. When talking value, you also have to consider that with the dillution, almost 40 milion cheap shares will be sloshing round the market. The 10p ones are already 50% up. A lot of these new shares are new investors and IMO these will change hands quickly and again, IMO, most will be out by the time we are pushing a pound. I also think this will happen before we get any major news. So these shares will be in hands of those who believe the Market Cap is going to be higher andctheyvmight be looking for a 200 million NC, maybe even more. Then we have the WRAP shares that are in SAR investor hands. These shares, IMO (should've just said all this was my opinion) are a big risk to the valuation when talking TO. There are some LTH holders here that would now, gladly take a 300 million offer. As it would make them 7 figure profits.

The dynamic has changed and where once we had a shareholder base who wouldn't take less than £10, probably wouldnt risk losing everything past say £5. The positive here is, if someone wants to sell at £5, those buying will be thinking £10 and so on. My cards on the table, I would be disappointed if we got less then £10 per share in a TO. I will sell a few on the way but even with profits, I would feel like the market had won and the reason is, if all working and progressing, the end of p2 with data to support a p3 trial, then we are looking at 2 billion.

Looking at the volume. There could be another 500k RF sells today. Approx £80k off the balance?

We might get an RNS for the warrants but IMO. RF will recouped the cash they gave Sar through selling free shares. The warrants are the profit. They could wait until a pound SP, then buy the warrants for 10p. It win win for them.

Aber, no TR1 needed yet. Shares havnt been admitted to market yet.

Basil, for once I'll stick up for the board. Paying back RF with shares is the oath of least resistance. It is the path that will dilute the shares in issue by the least amount. I honestly don't get this desire to throw money at the board and dilute your own holding even further. The only real winners are those who had very low averages anyway. They have enough cash to get to the point where a deal can be made. If the data isn't good enough to do that. It never will be, no matter how much cash you throw at it. They might as others a have stated here, see what the last 5.9 million shares when sold do to the amount outstanding, then pay off the remainder with the spare cash. RF will need buyers so if you want cheap shares with no dillution, buy the RF shares.

I know, I've been critical of the board and they deserve IMO. But if we run out of cash after 1a data is released, we deserve to go under.

They'd need to sell a lot by Thursday or we will get a TR1 RNS when the shares are admitted.

You are assuming they sold all the previous 2.9 million already.

At a big cost though. I reckon another 3 million needed plus the warrants. Personally, I cant think about how they got the company into this position. 40% more share for approx £4million. it beggers belief.

And there there they are, my calc were out though. 101 million shares in issue. I think thy might have forward sold upto 500k today. More drag on the sp but if they can be sold above 15p that will help greatly.

Hopefully they will be forward sold so not to stifle the upward trajectory. The difference between it's and selkz today probably means we will see a afterhours sell. Best we can hope, when they are finally out is 100 million shares in issue.

We're not far off phase 2a and at todays exchange rate. That could mean a £228 million mc or a, £2.40 per share SP.

Biotech valuations at different stages of trials. Lot of assumptions here, notwithstanding the drag the AIM seems to add but with 3 coupound on the go we should be able to match if not exceed these valuation stages. https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation.html

Hopefully we can push 30p or more before news if trial end and maybe 50p or more when data lands. £1 on non dillutative funding or on licence. £2 on 737 news and if funding allows kick-start 1802 development. Then it will be wait and see time.

We need momentum, not director buys. If a director buys, it means they don't know of any impending news. They director buys in the wrap probably means no price sensitive news until May. We might get a trial complete RNS, which in itself is good news but no meat on the bones until the statuary period is over. I think it is 30 days?

All im saying is dont give them a free ride. They will congratulated if they get a TO or compound to market and conversely, the buck will stop at them if they fail for any other reason than a trial failure.

The board set their own timelines and targets. You'd think after 14 years, they'd know how to build slippage in before releasing an RNS. You've just done what i said. You've apologised on their behalf and blamed 3rd parties. Take the MHRA scenario. We don't know the real truth why it was rejected. I'd bet my shares that the board do though.

RF Will want to settle way before Aug 2025. The bird in the hand is the options on warrants they have. It's up to them when if they cash them in.