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You know, the human brain can think more than once thing at once. I'm buying, and will keep buying all the way to a pound. Possibly more if news flow is good. Couple of points though. Raises with big dillutions are bad, it kind of universally accepted they are bad. They are bad for long term shareholders, they make the company look weak, inductions, will avoid and so on. If the board had pulled their finger out and secured a deal. You could've still bought cheap shares that didn't dillute everyone else's right up to the point where the deal was announced. I think it's just plain weird, why you can't bring yourself to say it. Yes we may all end up with what we wanted but we all had to risk more cash to do it. Unchallenged and you end up with VAL or any of the dozens of other companies that with good intentions or not, ended up shafting their loyal shareholders.
Yes, all calculations need to be gone on market cap. I know that's you should go it but we all throw sp predictions around that need to be recalculated. I still think that if all goes well, SAR could have a valuations of around 2 billion. End of phase 2 going into phase 3. Before RF that wasn't far off £30 per share. We'd now need a 3 billion valuation to get the same £30. Generally, I dont have a issue with raises and dillution but it's the scale of this one that grates on me. The cash from RF, the Raise and the wrap genrated less than £5 million pounds but cost approx 40 million shares. If the SP were to get back to £1 that's a £40 million cost to run a phase 1 trials, if it got to £10. That a £400 million cost. Worse than than that. The whole saga hasn't even secured our financial future. If the RF facility was the best option, what was the worst?
I'm far from a ramper but I'll be buying once or twice a month as funds allow anything under a pound and the only gets us in the region where we were last summer. We might get there this, quarter or even next but it is coming. My next tranche will come next week so, I'm fine with a little drop in the SP. The only pinch point I can see coming is funding for 2a, maybe Q3 or Q4 24. If non dillutative, then we are on our way to £2.
Those unknown trade look like sells. Could be RF, could also be a large holder here, who has a good broker. If it is RF straying away from their the usual MO, there might be an RNS coming this morning. Out or final tranche of shares.
With no TR1 this morning. All we really know is they have less 3% of shares in issue. I think we will get an RNS late this afternoon stating we are giving them another 3 million. Not a problem if demand is still high. It would be nice if we could get and accurate balance of amount owed in the RNS. Hopefully we are well under £500k now.
First thing. If the TYK2 compounds work and get to market, they are worth billions, not just "billions" billions per annum. That's undeniable. However, we don't know if they work, no one does. So, with safety and toxicity almost a given, we need funds to test, trial and prove efficacy. Calculating fair value right now is tricky. If we were fully funded, then 2 to 300 million, would be out of the question. I'm not talk TO value here, I'm talking market cap. Get good solid funding, start 1801 2a and we should see the MC head towards the 100s of million region. If we get just enough funding, then it will leave doubt and new shareholders will be cautious and with the recent track record, they should be. When talking value, you also have to consider that with the dillution, almost 40 milion cheap shares will be sloshing round the market. The 10p ones are already 50% up. A lot of these new shares are new investors and IMO these will change hands quickly and again, IMO, most will be out by the time we are pushing a pound. I also think this will happen before we get any major news. So these shares will be in hands of those who believe the Market Cap is going to be higher andctheyvmight be looking for a 200 million NC, maybe even more. Then we have the WRAP shares that are in SAR investor hands. These shares, IMO (should've just said all this was my opinion) are a big risk to the valuation when talking TO. There are some LTH holders here that would now, gladly take a 300 million offer. As it would make them 7 figure profits.
The dynamic has changed and where once we had a shareholder base who wouldn't take less than £10, probably wouldnt risk losing everything past say £5. The positive here is, if someone wants to sell at £5, those buying will be thinking £10 and so on. My cards on the table, I would be disappointed if we got less then £10 per share in a TO. I will sell a few on the way but even with profits, I would feel like the market had won and the reason is, if all working and progressing, the end of p2 with data to support a p3 trial, then we are looking at 2 billion.
We might get an RNS for the warrants but IMO. RF will recouped the cash they gave Sar through selling free shares. The warrants are the profit. They could wait until a pound SP, then buy the warrants for 10p. It win win for them.
Basil, for once I'll stick up for the board. Paying back RF with shares is the oath of least resistance. It is the path that will dilute the shares in issue by the least amount. I honestly don't get this desire to throw money at the board and dilute your own holding even further. The only real winners are those who had very low averages anyway. They have enough cash to get to the point where a deal can be made. If the data isn't good enough to do that. It never will be, no matter how much cash you throw at it. They might as others a have stated here, see what the last 5.9 million shares when sold do to the amount outstanding, then pay off the remainder with the spare cash. RF will need buyers so if you want cheap shares with no dillution, buy the RF shares.
Hopefully they will be forward sold so not to stifle the upward trajectory. The difference between it's and selkz today probably means we will see a afterhours sell. Best we can hope, when they are finally out is 100 million shares in issue.