Member Info for portswigger

Of course Pianista. Lets hope DX have done their Due Diligence on Kempster and it's not's a case that they are struggling tor Ned's. He didn't come out of Frasers smelling of roses. !

Enough of cloud for me Pianista.! Without researching it wasn't there something with Ted Baker I read somewhere in the back of my mind. I'm not sure as Chair of the audit and risk committee.!!. Jobs for the boys on the corporate roundabout.!

I'm not sure this is cause for a celebration folks. Jon Kempster of Sports Direct/Frasers financial woes fame. !!!

Deep. M&A is not something I feel is imminent in fact I'd be surprised if it was but certainly within the next couple of years. I just think the organic growth strategy is slow in the industry they are in. They have been on a relatively steady predictable course of operational/infrastructure growth but that will get them to a point but what then. Do they just continue, year after year waiting for someone to come in for them.

A lot may happen in the meantime. I feel Stemis is right about the exit strategy. I made the point when Gatemore got involved of how the two visions of DX, the BOD and Gatemore would be compatible. That's why I really want to see what that strategy is and how it develops and how they plan to maximise shareholder returns.

There are just so many uncertainties and possible outcomes.

I take your point on the possible financials Stemis and I would be pleasantly surprised if the reality matches that theory.

True to a point Stemis. But I take a slightly different view. The only thing that determines share prices is supply and demand. Positive or negative trading can affect supply and demand both ways but sometimes not at all. As you say DX have performed well exceeding expectations but this historically has not done much with the share price certainly in recent years.(22 excepted).

In fact most spikes have been through director buying, depot opening and when Lombard bought in etc. It soon settled down and in 2021 it did nothing despite a very positive year.

Indeed this is what Gatemore were moaning about in their letter in December 2021 that the SP had got no where near analyst targets of 55/57p. The reason....... demand!. Targets are targets... they mean nothing.

Past performance has of course no relevance to future performance but I ask myself what is going to change in relation to demand. Will new institutional shareholders want to get involved if the suspension is lifted. We'll they'll certainly be very cautious after what's gone on. What happens if smaller shareholders like Lombard or Schroeders or any of the institutional shareholders decide to exit after this years shambles. The SP will likely fall in my opinion. That's why I think we may see the introduction of a dividend all being well.

Are private investors going to rush to a reasonably profitable low margin logistics business or are they going to be looking for the next high risk jam tomorrow business etc. I think we all know the answer to that one !

Gatemore are involved for a reason and are looking at strategic alternatives and capital allocation for a reason and part of that is because in my opinion they can't see any substantial changes in demand with DX in its current form and strategy. That's one of the reasons why it's M&A for me moving forward.

All in my humble opinion of course, I may be completely wrong and respect all views.

I think that is a fair assumption Piaista. It's very easy to put on rose tinted glasses after a positive trading update and liberum update. I don't take any notice of own broker forecasts, they are hardly ever right.

The devil will be in the accounts detail and we probably won't get the 22 accounts until next year anyway.

In saying that we are in a far better position than we were last week. Free cash is healthy and the upgrades to twelve depots indicate there are further operational efficiencies to be had. I'm really looking to see where we are heading with capital allocation and Gatemore's influence over strategy. I favour dividends over share buybacks maybe in 23.

If we do start trading on the AIM again is say October and it's a big if at the moment it will be interesting how existing and potential stakeholders react and sentiment at the time. But it's the Aim and anything could happen....!

I think " eventually" is the operative word there Pianista. Forecasts are great but to be taken with a pinch of salt and we were no where near previous forecasts of 55/57p.

It is to DX's credit that they have come clean on the exceptionals which in my opinion is not the sum total of it but it could be disguised with a bit of creativity.It's proved to be a very expensive issue not only in cost but PR etc. There has to be a level of ineptitude or someone must have been asleep at the wheel. If we get the accounts signed off and the suspension lifted then we should be through the worst of it. Deep is right, the main protagonists of this shambles are still in place and it's quite hard to have much confidence in them moving forward.

Yes P.. It probably reflects the seriousness of the situation. We've only had the initial findings from the investigation.. there may be more and more costs. It's a real blot on the landscape.

Good Grief.!!!! £1m in exceptionals in relation to the CG investigation. Astounding.!! I've nearly choked on my cornflakes. !!!

Headline increases are good but as the old saying goes, "Turnover for show... Profit for dough"

The margin will be the interesting thing considering the substantial inflationary pressures.

It's in DX interests to paint a really positive picture following the party line but it doesn't really changing anything for me although it's a positive.

Fair comment Pianista. We are in a better place than being delisted but substantial uncertainties remain. I think the nomad would have been pretty dismayed at GT's letter and the delay in appointing a replacement auditor and probably gave DX the benefit of the doubt until there were some conclusions from the investigation. We now have that and they are still onboard so far so that is a positive.

We could really do with some updates on trading and ops but like I said DX could announce virtually anything and it wouldn't surprise me as there are uncertainties everywhere you look.

Pianista... I have re-read the RNS with my afternoon coffee and custard cream!. I'm afraid I'm not breathing as easy as you.

The stand out statement from the RNS is "initial findings of the Inquiry and Investigation have now been reported to the Board. Having considered these findings and discussed them with the Company's Nominated Advisor, the Board has resolved to undertake some further work. "

Quite obvious that the nomad is not happy. Have the board been told to get their act together?

The RNS is deliberately vague because the situation is very uncertain. I think we have a rolling suck and see derogation as there are a lot of uncertainties.

Will the CG work be done to everyone's satisfaction Littlejohn and the Nomad.
Will it be done within the time frame.
Will Littlejohn sign off the accounts
Are directorate changes likely
Will the nomad stay on board as things continue

The AIM rug in my view could be pulled at any time depending on progress. If we have been given a derogation with a timeframe I think we would have been told. I don't think the AIM is sufficiently confident enough at the moment to grant a 3/4 month derogation.

No announcement of the depot openings as promised.

I think we are no further on. It really wouldn't surprise me if we get announcements right out of left field in the forthcoming weeks and I'm expecting the unexpected. Still M&A for me.

Agreed. A very disappointing RNS. A complete lack of clarity that I am afraid to say is becoming the norm with DX.
An implied AIM extension with no confirmation.How long is it for ?. Etc. is there an agreed extension.?

CG inquiry started October 20, 19 months ago and only now do we get notice of findings. Far to long.

No answers and more questions. I am normally a pretty pragmatic person but I think this is very poor.

So much for the greater transparency Mr Meidar !!!

But….. we are where we are.!!

Probably true Sister, but we are where we are. !
Hopefully the opportunity to liquidate our investment will exist in some form in the not to distant future so those that want to can.

Unfortunately Deep it's something you'll have to get used to in your investing interest especially on the AIM. Things can change in an instant, things are very rarely better than they seem and often worse and it's in every company's interest to portray things in a positive light.It has been a difficult experience for us all so far but there has been far worse on the AIM. Ultimately you invest in the directors of a company as it is their actions/decisions that generally will determine the value the of our investment moving forward. I think we can all agree that that the directors of DX haven't acted in the manner we would expect.

Deep.. You've summed it up pretty well......None of us have a clue !!

I share Pianista's view and concern over the delisting. There is still that possibility.

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks the late appointment of the auditor and the application for aim extension right at the death is all bit convenient and choreographed. At least we'll know something within the week.

I think you have to trust the DX directors. Their strategy since I have been a shareholder is to increase the number of depots in both express and freight so we have to assume they know what they are doing. It is a low margin business so stem miles ( distances to and from depots/customers) is important. There are vast swathes of the country that don't have great depot coverage.. ie South West, Parts of Eastern England, etc, etc. You've either got to have a good margin which they don't or a high volume of business to make low margins workable. To be a nationwide carrier they need the infrastructure and in addition there is the high percentage of self employed in express affecting the margin. Sub Contracting again just eats into the margin.

Only a few days to wait now till we know of depot openings, extension etc. Hopefully we get over the bump in the road of the auditor and suspension but the value of our investment will ultimately depend on the strategy moving forward and I'm looking forward to some clarity on that. Still M&A for me.!

That's True. The picture surrounding DX is still very uncertain. All that's changed in the last six months is that we now have an auditor. We have had no updates on trading the second half of the year, one depot and we know that inflationary and economic pressures are huge.We know that Gatemore are committed to DX or so they said... are the other II's. I can't imagine they will be particularly pleased with a 6 month share suspension and they will be looking at any future plans in great detail. On the assumption we get the extension I think we'll know a lot more in the next three months but the DX picture is still as murky as ever.

Yes P.. !. As a general point it worth checking the filing history for all companies anyone may hold shares in. You generally find out more than what may/maynot be released in a RNS. eg K Leatherland who left DX as Head of Human Resources last year that didn't require an RNS.

I agree with that Piansta. There is no guarantee they'll get the extension although it's looking more favourable and we assume that Littlejohn do actually sign off the accounts.

If we do get a three/four month extension is does give more time to consider strategic alternatives ( Gatemore's words.. not mine).If there are moves in that direction It may well be the that DX is not listed on AIM in the form we all know. Any number of possibilities still exist.