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It's a mistake to think good news equals share price increases and conversley bad news equals share price falls. News just affects sentiment which is how many buyers and sellers there are which primarily dictates at what price market makers make a market. The headline regarding tuffnells is good news but that doesn't translate until as pianista eloquently puts it until we get assessments of the outlook etc. The benefits of tuffnells demise will take a while to come through however successful they integrating the new opportunities.

DX have produced good figures for a few years now and really the share price has done next to nothing on figures. Most growth has come following director buys and i for one don't see much change to that even with a updated outlook and brokers forecasts. The question is if that will affect sentiment positively. if it does great but we're still swimming against the tide of negative makro sentiment.

In my view it doesn't really matter what figures DX will produce because the markets are not daft,they will be already factoring in the future. The SP will grow if we see director buys which i doubt because I completely agree with Pianisa on a new incentive plan to feather the nest. Rumour is king and if there was a rumour that someone like DHL was circling DX

the affect on the SP would be far greater than anything the figures could ever do.In saying that if DX do make it work integrating tuffnells business then DX would be looking around 35% plus of the IDW market which would be an attractive proposition to someone.

Absolutely Everton... a glass half full day. ! But you can bet your bottom dollar that the Dx directors will have in place a strategy to ensure they are well rewarded moving forward. I'm sure we'll hear details of that. Sometimes things are as good as they seem for a short period of time. I've had too many bites on thev bottom over the years on the AIM to realise it doesn't last long. But yes a good day.

Dx are currently in the 2nd year of a 20-25m investment programe... new hub at 12m + , Electric Vehicles 3m , Dividend ???

and tuffnells expenditure... that's alot of candy. Lets hope business is that good and CFO's pencil is pretty sharp.

I think we will see something happening with the 32m odd outstanding share options in the forseable.DX directors have a history of feathering their own nests pretty well and I'm sure that strategy will continue. I'm not trying to pour cold water on the good news but things are never really as good as they seem and there will be substantial financial implications for DX taking on the remnants of Tuffnells. We can't argue with a a rising share price and postive sentiment but I'm not sure you'll need to be practising your cartwheels just yet sister. !

Intention to take on virtually half of Tuffnells depots which is quite a task with 500+ new customers.!!! Good Luck sorting all that out DX.!

It will be interesting to see how this affects sentiment together with the trading update. Undoubtedly positive. Hopefully we'll still get the dividend.

Not strictly DX but interesting that the Brand and IP of Tuffnells have been bought by on-demand company shift. It seems that DX probably wasn't interested and didn't see the value but It remains to been if DX have any interest in the depots etc.

That's one way of looking at it Everton and it's only natural for DX's eyes to light up when one of your biggest competitors goes under but I think it creates a multitude of problems for DX. In the last available accounts Tuffnells turned over 178M year ending 2021 so there is a substantial amount of available business sat in front of them. We have no idea what spare capacity DX have and the possibility of overtrading exists which is one of the worst things that can be done in business.

DX have committed themselves financially with the growth plans including the new regional hub and planned dividend so I wonder what scope they within the existing financial and general resources to take advantage of the market opportunities that now exist. We have the right man at the top with freight experience but in my view its quite a test for him and the DX board.Is it beyond the realms of possibility that there may be a change to the capital allocation policy to (in the words of some chap who resides in the Kremlin) take into account the new realities ?

The administrators will be trying to extract some value from the bones of Tuffnells. From DX's perspective possibly complimentary depots on new leases with infrastructure and resources already in place but who knows who's floating around expressing an interest. It will be interesting to see how DX handle it.. but it's not easy.!!

Well... certainly a statement of intent considering they already have a regional hub in willenhall some 50 miles a way. I think the upgrades to that are due for completion quite soon It also looks like they are buying this freehold so they seem pretty bullish. They have to be admired really and are obviously confident in their cash forecasts.

Yesterday.. I expressed suprise that Tuffnells had stuggled to raise finance/investment. For the first time I read Tuffnells latest accounts last night and I'm not suprised in the slightest. The liabilities both current and ongoing are just to great. The administrators have acted very swiftly to cease operations immediately which is a dramatic step. I'm sure DX will have read the accounts and realised what a difficult position they were in and probably knew for quite a while that administration was a possibility.

Yes.. a very sad day for Tuffnells and particularly their employees in this economic climate. It's a shame a company primarily operating in a niche has gone and it's surprising they've had trouble raising finance and indicating inflationary and competitive pressures. Dx is not immune to this and sound financial, resource and operational management is so important. DX if they are on the ball should have had some knowledge of Tuffnells difficulties for a while and should have plans in place to exploit the situation. Dx will no doubt pick up some business and staff but that doesn't always guarantee continued success... it's not as easy as that. !

Yes, good news that this has been settled reasonably quickly and we'll find out at what cost in the accounts but it seems there is nothing hanging over us (that we know about) moving forward. Hopefully, with a new board DX can now focus on what they are good at. I think Sisteract is right that there is value around this point but the Macro picture is far to blurry for for me and I'm beginning think there is seismic shift in the world economy coming with the Ukraine fall out when it comes so my finger is not to far from the eject button. Hopefully we'll see the 1p dividend and once that is confirmed I'll certainly be giving it alot of thought....maybe before that !

I think that's true to a point FJ but the ultimate decision makers...BOD has changed substantially. The new board haven't really shown much apart from to keep on keeping on but we do have a bit more clarity on capital allocation. It remains to be

seen how they are dealing with the Tuffnells claim behind the scenes.

The share price drift is disappointing but not totally unexpected. We are expecting announcements of new depots/upgrades

but I can't see any SP growth of note. The new 3% investor hasn't, probable 1p dividend hasn't and as you say FJ it really has to be something dramatic of sorts.

I try to keep abreast of logistics at my own micro level and it's interesting that two of my suppliers have changed from UPS to Evri and I have to say the communication from Evri has in these cases been very good.It's always interesting for me how DX are going to take marketshare from the mass of competitors in express or is there just enough for everyone.

Well, I respect anyones view on the yahoo article but in my view it's completely ridiculous. It's completely pointless saying a share could be this or could be that or should be this or should be that...... It's isn't..... It's non statement.It's where it is for a reason. There are no sentiment drivers.

You could make a case for a number of shares trading well below their intrinsic value currently. Theory is nothing. There are shares with more cash in the bank and no debt than their Mcap.

Similarly especially during covid there were many "hot shares" trading hundreds of percent above their intrinsic value and look what happened to them. Sentiment is everything.

If the Americans can't reach agreement on their debt ceiling there'll be a worldwide economic tsunami of problems and every share in the markets will be trading well below it's intrinsic value. In my view the big picture is everything currently.

Anyone taking a 3% stake is good news as they will have done their due dilegence.

As expected the markets shrug their shoulders at the news !

Fj... Is there a niche to be found or created in Express ? I'm not sure there is. Isn't the premise that with the on line marketplace and Royal Mails failures there will be plenty for everyone. As long as DX provide a comparable service to their larger competitors they'll pick up some business but shooting the lights out isn't going to happen. It strikes me that it's just more of the same. They can't charge more than DPD, UPS et al and expect to gain great increases in marketshare. We have a new board so hopefully we'll see some clarity on a way forward but they can show some positivity by dealing with the Tuffnells claim as soon as possible rather than saying its going through legal proceedings which really means... it's going to cost !

Absolutely Pianista. The volume of DPD vans is to be expected. The underlying point I am making in express is that operational leverage and efficiencies will only get you so far and at some point DX really have to be taking marketshare as I alluded to in earlier posts from people like DPD. Can they do it.... this is my concern and can they continue to do it profitably with the added investment required in new vans etc. etc. I use DPD a lot now and in my opinion they provide an exceptional service at a better cost which I expect from a bigger fish.
I don't disagree with any of the points you raise. There is nothing really driving sentiment wherever you look which is concern for us all.

No Pianista... it hasn't been a great month but I'm not sure an end to tuffnellgate or improved PR is going to have any affect on the SP. Since the previous board was installed in 2017 the SP has done very little of note. The only sustained growth came from sustained director buys throughout 2020. Not withstanding the suspension the SP is now lower than it was in December 2020. News of depot openings/expansion good figures are met with a shrug of the shoulders by the markets...
yeah.... very good....next !. There is the odd peak and trough but interestingly there is no II interest at a lower share price now than Lombard or Schroders bought in with a dividend in the offing.perhaps the yield isn't enough.General sentiment is at rock bottom. Despite my earlier confidence thinking about it I'm not sure a share buy back will be of much benefit to the SP... I think I'd prefer a increased dividend but the amount of shares in issue is an admitted problem for DX.

Organic growth is all well and good but it's slow and with currently 15% to 18% of the IDW market there is alot to go at.I'd be hoping they would be on the aqquisition trail but it seems from the AR this is medium term possibility for DX so it's really a slow train moving on a very predictable track. Sometimes I find that comforting... other times I don't .My holding is enough that the dividend is worth it but come December I think it will be time for a review.

For me express has always been issue and I still really don't get the continued expansion. Sure there is more business to be had but how profitable and how much. They have said by having more local depots they can provide a better local service. That may be true but are the rewards there?. In the area I am there are 4/5 DPD vans that we see every day and probably a DX van once every other day. I don't really see how they can make great rather than steady progress.

I have to put my faith in the new board and things seem to going in the right direction but it's ordinary and we really need something out of the ordinary to generate SP growth.

Well this is all very interesting. It’s amazing how I read on various chat boards how so many private investors moan about the AIM but yet continue to invest in it thinking the next time they’ll get it right.

Like most things there are the strong and the weak. The strong companies who are profitable, pay dividends, have deep pockets, financially sound, comprehensive resources, marketshare etc primarily on the FTSE100/250 and then we have the weak on the AIM.. start ups, in dept, in need of funding, promising future riches in the pot at the end of the rainbow in mining, pharma, tech or whatever. The weak striving to take market share from the strong. The strong though are in the box seat.. they always have been, always will be. They have the resources to keep the weak in their place and if there is by some small chance an AIM company that has something the strong want they have the power to take them over to protect their strength and that’s what we all hope for. Even with DX.

What’s been the best performing share index in the last one, three, five years …. The FTSE 100 and the worse.. the AIM

Since inception the FTSE 100 is up 600% +
The FTSE 250 up 300%
Aim All Share -16% in over 20 years

So why do most private investors go the AIM, well, its a cheap way to get into share dealing but the odds are stacked against it… of course there is the odd nugget… and exceptions but not many and often when we think we have found one … it turns out we haven’t.

Well I'm pleased you weren't a victim.!
There are far to many meaningless platitudes on the AIM in my view;
Look for a founder/board who has skin in the game
Look for director buying
Buy on the rumour.. sell on the news blah blah blah.
Directors act in best interests of shareholders

It's true in some cases but certainly not all and it all depends on the context.

I've had a bumby ride over the years but developed a few personal investment rules the most important being:

Never invest in a company that is not paying a dividend or at least making money
Avoid companies in debt
If there is no single insitututional share holding above 3-5% - Why Not
Never invest in companies that talk to much.

In saying that I broke the rules with DX as it was a turnaround gamble and I was impressed with the staregy of the previous board. It remains to be seen if I was right.

I sympathise... but perfectly legal... perils of the AIM I'm afraid. This company has no insitutional shareholding of any note so private investors are wide open. All is not lost yet though.The AIM has the highest risk and this is what can happen.The AIM is a unbelievably horrible and dangerous place. I'm not saying it's true in your case but many PI's put their faith in PLC directors as people of assumed integrity and all that. The harsh lesson is that many are not and will do what suits them.
It's the AIM... hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Yes..DX stated in the capital allocation policy review that they would consider a dividend and share buy back policy as appropriate. As long as the business continues to generate free cash as they have done so far. It's a bit of a balancing act between funding growth plans and satisfying shareholders.