Member Info for portswigger

Interesting registration of a charge between DX and Verdant Regeneration for a site in Ilkeston a few weeks ago.

Interesting that the DX website has updated the significant shareholder list. The most striking is that Schroders who held 5.57% of the company on the 27 Feb now hold 3.21% on the 9 August. A reduction of 13M shares and no notification to the market. !. Lombard increased their holding by about 1% - 8.48% to 9.40%.

I don't attach great significance to it , but a II selling around 40% of their holding would have raised a few eyebrows if it had been RNS'd which it should have been. But it's the AIM.....!!

I don't know what you all thought of the fireside chat ?. I won't bore you all with my points, but ultimately I wasn't impressed and I can't see a clear strategic direction that will enhance shareholder value.

Sorry to see Sister go, I thought she talked alot of sense. After watching that I may not be that far behind but I'll probably wait for the divi.

I understand your view and optimism Pianista. I'm not sure I share it certainly for the next couple of years. From a business perspective DX are really committing themselves substantially.. Still in 20-25m 3 year investment plan, new depot 12M plus,

added depots plus 15 Tunnels depots at what cost, and integration costs, vehicles 3m +, Dividend 6M. I'll really be looking at the finer financial details at year end but they are heavily reliant in business continuing to be good. I'm not as positive on the economic situation. I think it's tough to maintain and increase margin when there is substantial financial investment against a backdrop of difficult trading and economic conditions. If this is sustained for the next two/three years I think it will be difficult for DX.

The projected dividend of 1.5p this year, 1.7p the following and 2p the following is really nothing to write home about and indicative of slow and steady growth but certainly not a given. I really can't see where the drivers are coming from to take the SP to late 30's/40p certainly this year.

Anyway time for a break from me, enjoy the summer break. Hopefully, I'll come back in a more positive mood. !

I like your posts Pianista... well thought out and reasoned. But I have a slightly different view. I think low margin generally is a real problem. DX themselves have targeted margin increase as one of their KPI's presumably. The trouble is that low margin businesses rely almost completely on increasing turnover to generate the profits to reinvest or redistribute or whatever and they are always open to cheaper competition and are much more exposed to economic difficulties.I don't doubt what they have done so far is impressive but that was in the turnaround stage and that doesn't matter now. It's all about the future. DX are focussed on customer service but all the major carriers are getting their act together now... certainly in my experience so DX really offer nothing new in certain aspects of their business. Personally I think the future economic difficulties are being underestimated generally.

DX have stated that the depot network is going to take 18 months to optimise which is one of my justifications for saying its a much longer play now.

In the grand scheme of things I agree that DX is probably as solid as an investment as there can be currently but the fact remains that there is simply isn't the interest in the form of investors. We can't just assume the penny will drop at some point and we wait and wonder when that will be. The real question is.. is there is a penny to drop and if there is why hasn't it dropped yet?

Well, it would suprise me if anyone researching the AIM didn't know about its dividend paying shares.

Get away from the mindset of being a shareholder to a mindset of considering an investment. Would we invest now.?

If I had 5K,10K, 50K or whatever would I invest in DX now?. That's a decision we all would make.

I can understand whe people wouldn't... just a few considerations of the top of my head...

It's a low margin, highly competitive marketplace that won't change

Its profitable yes... but the dividend is pretty low and you have to invest a fair whack to make it worth while

There are to many shares in issue

Projections are positive but nothing to raise an eyebrow

It's a new unproven board and a chequered history of corprate governence

The profitable aspect of the business relies on consumer spending primarily and that is unpredicatable at best.

There are substantial marco economic risks

There is no real history of SP growth over the past three years and 36p has been the ceiling

Is there better value out there

There are pros of course but it doesn't surpise me that aren't many buyers. But who know what the share price will do. I'm no authority. !!

I think it's a different question. Anyone doing reasonable research on the AIM should know about DX. It's a dividend paying share and their aren't many on the AIM. The question is why aren't they buying ?

Absolutely Pianista. But as every marketing professional will tell you, it's the headline that grabs the attention and to imply you'll make a lot of money investing in DX without any context or balance is wrong on every level. The article hasn't brought a multitude of buyers to date so perhaps the savvy private investor has seen it for what I think it probably is.... blatant ramping.!

Yes of course email. Any investment is a risk but there shouldn't be bad faith or ignorance in reporting. This is the industry they work in every day. They research and know better than that surely. !They can't just provide one side of the story.The only point I am making is the industry and by that I mean Media within it has a responsibility to act responsibly and personally I don't feel they do. That article is in my view way to positive and misleading. It's telling people to invest in DX to make a packet. That's it. If I'd have said that people would receive it as blatant ramping but if it is a credible source that's ok. I agree Individuals do have responsibilty to research and check information and form their opinion but they should be doing so when information presented from what are perceived credible sources is balanced.

I'm not criticising the individual, far from it. The people in positions of influence should act responsibily and telling people to invest in DX to make a packet is in my view isn't.

Well, we'll all be grateful if the article generates some growth. But unlikely and quite alot of sells today.

For me the article exemplifies everything that is wrong in the media that surrounds share buying. The aticle headline is sensationalist.

"invest in parcels expert DX if you want to make a packet" Completely biased from a seemingly credible souce ,no putting a warning that "making a packet may not actually be the reality". No mention of possible downsides.

It's alright tipping a share as a buy but in my view fundimentally wrong to say you'll make a packet without any balance in the article.

The private investor believes it but there is no guarantee of anything.!!. Is it any wonder most private investors lose money.

Thanks for posting Tep. I know I have said this before and I know other posters put quite a bit of faith in Broker forecasts and disagree with me but broker forecasts/sp targets make my blood boil and are one of the major reasons for stock market losses by private investors. Seemingly from a credible source there is no basis is in fact, it's unknowable, a figment of the writers imagination.

Weren't the brokers forecasting 50P plus before the takeover of Tuffnells remnants, where's the consideration of the annualised value of 32M. Where's the justification.

I'll set a target price of £1.50. Is that any less credible? I'll base it on the Ukraine war ending in a couple of months.. the major players sit round a table... sort out their differences.....shake hands... everything is rosy in the garden. The climate devastation turns out to be a yearly blip.The world economy recovers..inflation falls, consumer spending increases, DX grow substantially and in 5 years we hit £1.50 or........

I set a target price of 3p based on the Ukraine war turns nuclear and leads to world war three. Climate change is far worse than we thought and leads to crop devastation, world wide economic collapse and of the stock markets.

Unlikely absolutely... possible yes, and no less credible than steady growth year after year..

That's why I think forecasts are futile and are best ignored because anything can happen at any time.

It's a fair comment Pianista...... but what can DX do. The SP is not their responsibility. The capital allocation policy was a result of Gatemore's interference so I would suggest they are happy with that. The new board have read the room a little better and are just getting on with it.

We should all know buy now that we are not going to get a multitude of PI's investing in DX... Maybe we will see some further II' investment but that probably won't do much.A share buyback strategy may help in SP growth but that isn't a given especially with the economic headwinds and landscape we are fighting against. I just think the Macro negativity far outweighs and micro positivity and the markets are more realistic than we give them credit for. Taking onboard the remnants of Tuffnells has changed the landscape for DX and also for us. It's just become a longer play. Holding 0.00001% of the company or whatever is a very different consideration to those who hold 3%+

Yep Stemis and on the face of it DX could be considered undervalued. But it isn't. Theory means nothing on the Stockmarket. A very muted response to a as expected update.Reading between the lines I think there would be no issue in confirming the 1p dividend which is enough for me for the time being.

But I am a little underwhelmed. 10% growth is about the minimum I would have expected with the depot openings and the benefits of the localised depot sales teams since covid etc. Probably a reflection of the current economic situation. Similarly, It looks like it's tough margin wise if they are looking at only getting to 7.5% + within a couple of years.

It really reinforces my view that this is 3 year plus play.

Fundimentally though this is about the share price and the dynamics that move it and figures simply don't do it.There are to many shares in issue so personally I'll be looking for a progressive dividend policy and a share buy back strategy really to keep me interested for any great length of time.

Non taken Sister and it's a legitimate question. Personally I think its important to look at potential difficulties any business you invest in may face.It's pointless looking through rose tinted glasses all the time. DX is a very different beast to the one I invested in during spring /summer 2020. Then it was a turnaround, now its in the growth/investment phase.Totally different considerations. It was quite obvious the turnaround was going well in 2020 so it wasn't a difficult decision to invest with consistent buying from the directors etc. Now it's about growth in a low margin, competitive marketplace with substantial competition. Can they do it and can they do it profitability and what will be the implication on the share price.

I quite admire DX. Investing for growth in difficult economic times is difficult but sound economic practice because when the econonmic landscape improves you are in a much better position to take advantage of it. The difficulty is that the world economic dynamic is changing with trade difficulties between the USA and China and the Ukraine situation and that will filter down to a micro level and it already has very significantly. As I mentioned at the time I sold all my shares as Russia was building up its forces but I couldn't sell DX because they were suspended and I probably would have but that may have turned out to be a blessing in disguise.

The dividend keeps me interested and as long as we see some progression in that I'm quite happy but I review all the time. It's a new board, unproven. I'm still looking for clues as to the exit strategy. There is so many considerations and variables

which we all have.

I don't normally invest on the AIM and DX is the only share I had until recently when I invested in a share that had dropped to a level that I felt was a bargain, but it wasn't a penny share like DX. A few pounds per share so quite a high cost of entry but in a very boring field and a discussion board that virtually no one contributes to.

At the momment I am reasonably confident in DX. I just think the share price growth is further away than others. But who Knows. !

Well, that's a question with a multitude of answers.

Turn it round... why would you invest in DX currently. It's a low margin competitive marketplace, no history of share price growth on performance in the last 4 years or so. Even though it's paying a dividend, a relatively substantial holding is required to make it worthwhile. Logistics is pretty boring, there's no great discovery to be made in the industry... you can only do it cheaper or better than anyone else in terms of service and there are competitors with very deep pockets around. DX do have the niche of course in certain aspects of their business which is beneficial.

So how does that compare with investing where there is a much lower cost of entry, investing in companies that are loss making but chasing rainbows in new developments in biofuels, phama, tech, waiting for industry to catch up with their ground breaking offering or those promising riches digging in the dirt. Convinced by sweet-talking CEO's promising the earth. Which do most private investors choose.?.. of course the latter. !. You've only got to look at trading volume and comments on the chat boards of those companies

In my view DX is a sound bet but it is at least a 3 year play and it's mcap is pretty punchy in the current climate.

Logistics is boring,DX is a pretty boring share. it won't generate the chatter and herd unless there is something out of the ordinary like an offer and I think that it is at least a few years away. I wouldn't dream of making recommendations but I would look at AIM companies paying a dividend.There are a few that I would consider a better bet than DX with a bigger margin and better yield but there is generally a higher cost of entry. Each to their own.

Yep. Interesting that it is solely an express depot... but they needed one in that area. Like anyone I'm interested in the update but I'm not expecting anything startling. If it moots confirmation of the dividend I'll be happy. In recent trading updates DX have indicated 10% - 15% turnover growth often in parallel with depot growth. We have had the background of inflationary pressures and drop off in consumer spending in H2 so if DX have produced anything unexpected then credit to them. It's only really when get the unexpected that we see substantial share price movement and the markets are expecting a good update and confirmation of the dividend.

I do like a bit of positivity e-mail and its always good to look on the brightside. It's the AIM though and I'm a long in tooth glass half empty guy. The thing is with IDW that those major users of IDW should have been fully aware of DX even if they used Tuffnells. Perhaps there is a reason they used Tuffnells and not DX, may be price... maybe service, maybe they've been with Tuffnells years. Sure DX have licenses with a view to taking on Tuffnells depots but with various different landlaords and logistics to integrate I think it will be second half of 2024 before we see any tangible business benefits. In addition DX is not the only alternative IDW game in town.

Absoluteley e-mail. It is history. The update could get us to new ground and some posters are more positive about that than others.

The question is ........what is going to happen that is going to generate more buyers and sellers at a higher price. That's a question I ask myself all the time. So far all the positive news over the past hasn't done it. Trading volumes are low.Perhaps the update will do it....Personally i think it is a fairy story and my belief in those ended a long time ago.

It's nice of you to say deep, but its not incredible knowledge its just my trading experiences and I have run businesses for many years so I look at shares from a business/operational perspective as well. Hence my boring posts when I don't quite get the strategy but then again I'm not in logistics. Anyway it's served me pretty well but I don't get it right all the time and others have equally valid points.

The point about DX is that the substantial growth in the share price in my time came from sustained director buying from April 2020. But it was from a numbers of directors and that pricked up ears. Directors usually buy when they think the share price goes up and in this case it did. Similarly Lloyd cashed in when the SP dived over the CG shambles. A lot criticised Lloyd for that I didn't. He saw an opportunity and took it... wouldn't we all if we saw it or had the money. That's the world we live in... morals rarely come in to it.!!

It's not always the case that director buys are good news. Sometimes it's to reassure the markets after bad news or to mask bad news. Sometimes directors do it to portray the company in a positive light prior to a fundraise. Don't forget Directors are always in a position to look after themselves very well whatever the situation and I can't think of any that don't.

Your question was about further director buying. I don't know. There are the outstanding share options of course and like Pianista says I think we'll see further incentives to take into account the "new realities". I rather like that phrase.

The issue with DX is that it doesn't generate the "chatter". I don't whether you were a shareholder when VOX markets were shouting from the roof tops about DX and how everyone wants to work for Lloyd. Lloyd this and Lloyd That.! It did nothing. Dx is not a generally attractive share.The recent II' and Schroders, Lombard all bought in over 30p.They'll be having meetings with DX perhaps quarterly and none have jumped ship but of course they are starting to get a dividend, they'll be planning 5 years plus. To most private investors 5 years plus is a lifetime.

I think brokers forecasts are irrelevant. The share price is what is. Weren't VOX talking about a £1. It's just a fairy story.

Well the markets are expecting a good update. They've targeted a second dividend of 1p and DX have said nothing to doubt that. email is right about momentum but is it momentum in news or buyers or sellers. Momentum is nothing if it does't generate buyers and sellers. DX has no history in this apart from director buys. Turning around a business is far easier than growing a business in a low margin comptetive marketplace and investors will have been far more interested in a turn around in this industry. I can't remember who said that DX was a good buy at 25p a few weeks ago and it was and it was suprising that trading volume was pretty low and not many buyers at that point. Tufnells was a profitable business although quite modest and not enough for it to find a buyer or find the funding which does tell you something about its liabilities and thoughts about its potential. DX could inherit I dont know 75m - 125m in turnover maybe more but with integration costs it's unlikely to be higher percentage margin than they are currently working at so pehaps it isn't a game changer. The markets obviosly don't think it is so far. Since the end of the suspension last October the Share Price has done nothing. This is despite new depots, hubs, electric vehicles,revenue and proftabilit growth, announcement of dividend, capital allocation policy and one of its biggest competitors going under. ( Good News after Good News) In normal circumstances it is quite logical to ask if this doesn't generate share price growth what will ?

What could happen that is substantially better than that.... not much !