Member Info for portswigger

Well, I'm not one to give advice primarily because I'm not qualified. I'm just an investor and happy to tell people what I do if they are interested. Firstly, I don't believe in most market platitudes and in general I don't follow the generally accepted view/ advice in most things especially finance. If we followed the so called market advice all the time you'd think did we'd all be millionaires.......... and we're not.! In fact.. I've lost more money following advice especially when I first started out.

As a minimum I review all my stocks every June and look at what value may be out there. Things are quiet and many on my watch list have fallen 5% + in last couple of weeks and I think there are sound businesses and in my view some are undervalued so I buy. Opportunity in my view exists all the time, but at the end of the day there is one platitude I do agree with which is is to Do the research ( Thoroughly) and trust it. !

I'm not concerned about the sp drop/stagnation. Summer is notoriously quiet and general sentiment is pretty low at the moment. I think the current valuation is about right based on the known financials. The growth towards the end of last year was primarily based on news flow and director buys rather than the figures and the balance sheet was a little weak. It's a shame that year end and update is in the middle of the summer when not much is happening but hopefully the figures are going in the right direction. The new depots is well known by the markets and it's an investors rather than a traders share so I agree that further RNS depots opening won't have any great effect in SP.I have every confidence we'll reach 40p this year. In fact if the ask drops to around 30p to 31p I'll be tempted to open the chequebook as summer is a time I always look for value.

Agreed Chelsea. Confirmation of the increase in footprint we were expecting. Would of liked a bit more flesh on the bone. Ie Sq Ft.. If it's the centre of operations presumably Teeside it would have to cope with anticipated capacity moving forward. All I can find on the previous Hartlepool site was that it was pretty small approx 2500Sq ft approx so I wonder if three times that is enough moving forward.

Its also slightly confusing as DX this morning still had DXE vacancies in Hartlepool on their website. Nevertheless...a positive. !

Deep,
Whilst its good of you to ask your mate I'd be surprised if he/she would divulge any information if they new something. These things are subject to confidentiality and NDA agreements until information is released to the markets by the companies involved. Anything other is inside information which can lead to insider trading etc. We all know that goes on of course and anyone can start a rumour these days even you or I.

My own view is that that's a good while away. At least a year or so. Like us on this board there will be interested parties looking to see how this rapid expansion strategy plays out financially. The first indication will be in a few weeks but it's really the next financial year for me that will tell us and any interested parties a lot more.

Whislt missing packages and lack of customer service is disappointing.... it's not exclusive to DX. Millions of packages each year go missing with all carriers.. UPS, DHL, Royal Mail the lot. It's only natural in a high volume/low margin business. It's why I have always said that it is a very big ask in DX's case to provide super duper, best in class service and I personally don't think it is achievable especially in Express. Freight is a different story.

But we are not investing in the product, we're investing in the directors to enhance shareholder value and so far they have delivered.

Just about a month until the next update and 6 weeks or so until the year end so we should be getting a clearer picture of how the strategy is going. I for one am expecting good growth from freight especially after the last update and its noticeable that close to 75% of the ops vacancies on the website are in freight together with all of the CS vacancies. I expect Express will be trading in line with expecations. Incidentally for those that want to know DX have a minimum one hundred pound spend per week in express under contract. I think its to early to see any real growth in this area as the sales to teams are relatively new in place and geographical coverage is still light to see any great growth in economies of scale. We haven't seen any share price growth in the past six months which suggests the markets feel we are fully valued. Hopefully the updates will change sentiment.

Yep, had a read of the job description and it is a regional role for the northern region so it looks like there is quite a bit of focus there.. Initially fixed period of two years with the possibility of extension depending on business. Depots are pretty thin on the ground the further north you go and if they are to provide this marketing leading nationwide service it's essential that regional presence is improved.

Thanks for that Chelsea. I didn't have time to read the Job Description.

If it's a national job I wonder why it isn't based at HQ or the Midlands. For a logistics company heavy presence is needed on the M62 corridor so if wonder if a hub is being planned in the Leeds area and depots in the North are planned.

The job is also advertised in the freight division. Who knows if that means anything. I guess we will find out.

Further proof that the directors are executing the strategy as planned.

Noticed on the website there is a vacancy for a property project manager in Leeds, closing date end of July. Perhaps this is one of the new depots. I don't think they currently have a presence in Leeds. ( someone correct me if I am wrong). Certainly something going on there.

Still plenty of vacancies in freight. Although vacancies can mean anything, I tend to err on the side of the latest update a few weeks ago. Freight is where the most profitable growth is.

Interesting update from Clipper logistics today. All going well and provides some context as to what's happening in the industry. A little different to DX as they specialise in retail and have a worldwide offering. Interesting statement in the update that they are actively looking a mergers and acquisitions in Europe and North America. I wonder..............!

6m shares sold in a minute and the sp goes up.

Looks to me like there is an orderly seller. Lombard ?

P. I can’t believe Lombard weren’t aware. The fleet update and number of dx freight vacancies on the website in recent months pretty much signposted it. If they weren’t aware it makes you wonder what their researchers actually do. Perhaps they see better opportunities as things open up. If they do it wouldn’t surprise me if they reduce even more.

So Lombard have reduced their holding by 10% after making about 10% in 4 Months. Can't say I understand that. Don't think it is of much relevance though.

An interesting update. As I thought it's freight that's shooting the lights out. The best statement for me is the anticipation that Dx will significantly exceed expectations for adjusted profit before tax and improvement in cash flow. So increases in t/o, margin and profitability. One new depot opening on average every two months is a statement and all things seem rosy. It will be interesting to see the split of the new depots in either express or freight. Perhaps both.

I wonder what Express trading inline with expectations really means. it's a unbelievably low margin business. Two things really cross my mind.... Is the growth a fattening up process for what may lay ahead. ?.

If they approach a potential customer saying we offer freight, IDW, Express/Volume and secure etc then they offer a complete service that is far as I am aware no-one can complete with. Therefore express is just part of a wider market share strategy and low margins in that sector are not a massive concern.

If trajectory continues like this then I should think a change in dividend policy isn't that far away.

No new buys for me. Personally I think the market valuation is about right based on what we know. We know where DX is hanging their hat so like my fellow investors I’ m really looking to the figures to see how the strategy plays out.

Well, I contacted DX with a view to giving them all my business. Here's how it went.

The initial enquiry is by e-mail. Within 5 mins or so I get an automated reply of confirmation of receipt. Within 25 mins I get an e-mail from a person in charge requesting I contact them. Called and explained my requirements. Subsequently call scheduled from my local depot sales manager. E-mail confirmation of that followed. Call from my local sales manager received exactly when they said they would call. Pricing info received.

Was I impressed ........yes. Based on that experience I would certainly give them ago.

What I learn't.. They were honest.

Basically they said look elsewhere for the European business. They sub contract so there is an additional margin to consider so they are not competitive.

They said the systems were a bit clunky and they were investing in that. We all know that.

Made a big play on the ETA - 2 Hour delivery window to the customer for receipt.

Didn't really learn anything new, it just reinforced my new. Still have my concerns on margin pressure on express especially as the low cost carriers like Hermes now offer next day although only using drop off points. I'll be sticking around for the updates and year end to see how the strategy is working hoping to see some increased margins and bit more balance sheet strength and certainly until I get a feel for the exit strategy.

Yep, I had similar thoughts about sentiment. I was speaking to our DHL driver today and he was saying he's noticed a slight decline in the last couple of weeks in the volume of deliveries as things open up. Nothing major though. Can't find any official notification anywhere of schoders mystery buy... don't know what to make of that.

It will be interesting Chelsea. DX have always said the the 2nd half of the year is historically better. They have set the bar high with the talk etc so hopefully it meets those expectations. If it doesn't.? The investment in the new fleet is real statement of intent and this aggressive growth strategy in a low single figure margin business with a relatively weak balance sheet fascinates me. I can't see confirmation of the new depots doing much to drive the SP. I'll be looking for better PR, notification of contract wins etc which will drive the brand awareness. The benefits of economies of scale should grow to make them more competitive as they win more business.. Next year will be a big for DX and will tell us if the strategy will work. The exit strategy is still the biggie for me though.

I'll do my best Chelsea. I can give them my UK business but as they don't offer anything to EU or worldwide domestic recipients I can't give them much else. If I do get in front of them I'll ask them about that and report back on anything interesting.