Member Info for portswigger

A few days ago I posted that DX now use drop off locations. I have just spoken to my DX driver and that is not currently the case.
It seems that the DX headline on Parcel2Go outlinning 11,000 drop off locations is incorrect.

Deep, If I may... it's not about experience or naivety.Just because a couple of us have a similar view of the VOX market presentations doesn't mean we are right. It's just our view. Others may have a different view and ideally you should formulate your own opinions. I wouldn't worry about interpretation of the figures it's not essential. When they come out plenty of people will comment on them objectively and subjectively and resources to find that out will be easily available.
I've been bruised and battered throughout my investing life but I have learn't many things and probably one of the most important is that common sense is one of the most important traits. I'm sure you have plenty of that.

Today in the markets is a classic example of Macro sentiment. The pandemic has decimated most of the major economies in the world and we have the added complication of brexit. The next few years will undoubtedly be bumpy in the markets an I'm sure we'll learn a lot. Ultimately though soundly run companies making profit will win out and I think DX falls into that category.

I think SisterAct meant it as a bit of joke. That's how I took it and it made me chuckle anyway. !

No real comment on the RNS. We knew that was coming. Awaiting the figures.

Here Here Sister. !
I did like your comment about working for Lloyd. Like something I would expect to read in Private Eye and It gave me a laugh this Sunday Evening.

The comments from Jamie were full of sweeping generalisations and summed up why I never take any notice of platforms like these. He said the share is cheap with no justifications. It's not based on what we know currently but it is if you factor in substantial growth. There is substantial upside in all shares if companies involved grow their business and make profits. They are just worthless throw away comments. Comparing EBITDA with companies with different business models and at different stages in growth is just misleading in my view. Like you Sister for me it was just worthless.

His essential premise is that everything will be OK because Lloyd is in charge. !

I appreciate some may take a different view and take comfort from it and that is absolutely fine.

I was always concerned about DX "collection only" strategy as I didn't think it was viable or sustainable as a stand alone strategy. It seems they have now adopted the "drop off location" strategy that is well used by the other carriers. I have n't looked into it in detail but If you research Dx and Parcel2Go it shows they are offering a few thousand drop off locations. For me..... a welcome change and it makes for far better operational efficiency.

Exactly ..... I know where you are coming from Chelsea.

There is little point in getting hung up with operational problems. They are not unique to DX. I know DX are experiencing problems through my own business using them but the same is true of others I use like DHL.DPD and UPS, 13 warehouses vacancies though is alot in my opinion. Does it change the investment case ... No. Every business has day today issues that need dealing with. Its a sector problem and nothing to worry about in the grand scheme of things.

Deep: You should never apologise for asking questions and it's not embarrassing at all. Knowledge is Power.

I'm not saying I have all the answers because I don't. I can only tell you what I mean and how I view the investment world. I meant both in Macro Sentiment : ie the things that affect the tone of the general market....eg what's happening is USA/Asia, Economic Data, Interest Rates, Unemployment figures, Growth Figures, Inflation., Covid etc. etc and the Micro Sentiment in a particular sector or stock and world and his wife know that logistics is suffering at the moment.

The close to 5% today drop is probably a combination of all that coupled with the two week delay in the figures. Is it justified... I don't know but I have a view that most things on the AIM is an over-reaction either way.

Not sure I can add anything to today’s contributions..
But everyone is entitled to comment and give opinion but the only thing you can really rely on is that which comes out of the company.

I am not worried about the two week delay for results. I don’t think it is anything sinister. Sentiment is pretty low so the small drop doesn’t mean anything. In fact I am hoping the two week delay means a quarter 1 update may be more likely.

Like someone else said it’s a double edge sword for DX. On a basic level demand exceeds supply so that’s good for Drivers and companies that have good network and systems in place so DX should flourish. The problem comes when you can’t manage the business you have and you effectively overtrade. We don’t know if DX have any spare capacity or if they are operating close to maximum capacity. The government intervention in terms of getting people qualified quicker or working a few longer hours only seems to be scratching the surface. It doesn’t matter if people are not applying.

If shortages of beer, food, consumables continue for much longer the govt will be forced to allow more European drivers into the U.K. on work visas as they won’t want these problems approaching Xmas. I am sure there will be plenty of takers with the wages that can be earn’t in the U.K. I only really see it as a short term problem and The DX directors will have the skills and experience to manage it effectively.

News I was expecting. Ikea have announced supply chain problems with driver shortage quoted as part of the problem. DX have the contract or a close relationship with Ikea as the renewal of the 3 year contract was not announced but they have been advertising for drivers at Ikea. It will be interesting how DX report / comment on this and its knock on effects at results time. Not worried long term though.

I hope you all enjoyed the rest of the summer. It's been good to read everyone's very valid posts.

The announcements of the new depots was pleasing and expected and has moved the SP on a bit.
Plans continue with a plan to open a new depot on average every seven weeks so Dx are ploughing on regardless and all credit to them.

The well reported driver shortage must be affecting them and their customers but the effect will unknown depending on what capacity they are generally running at however you don't advertise for drivers if you don't need them. It interesting that the majority of customer service vacancies recently have been in freight so I am expecting a very good performance from that division which has already been signposted. I hope we get a breakdown of the performance of the departments in DX Express at results time but I fear we may not. Still have concerns regarding the courier volume business.

Anyway, my general view is that 40P + will be achievable by year end. Looking forward to the results, hoping a first quarter trading update is included.

For a few more hours P.
I thought the closed period was 30 days before the half year and 60 days before the final results. Perhaps I'm wrong in that.

You make very valid and well thought out points fully understood appreciated by me. All carriers have a substantial number of vacancies whether employed, self employed/franchise etc. That's good as it proves the business is there but it also proves it is a scarce resource. Overtime is of course an option although although that is heavily regulated for drivers. I take your point on agency drivers if you can get them, the trouble with that is the added agency costs makes it expensive which eat in to an already low margin business. There is also now a shortage of commercial vehicles with prices increasing so its a good job DX bought their 300 a while ago. For me it all adds up to inflationary pressure so I generally expect prices from carriers to increase. Not so good for my business but OK for DX.

From the report DX were obviously aware of it but there is a possibility that this is turning into a bigger problem than many anticipated.

We're all the same side though, hoping the DX directors deliver on their strategy. Best ... Ports

Despite the depot openings, positive news flow and trading update the SP remains nearly 10% lower than the start of the year.

Those that read my posts will know that have some nagging doubts about the expansion especially in B2C volume business. That little voice in my head is getting louder. Its a business that relies on the human resource and currently there are about 450 vacancies on the website. 100 Plus driver vacancies. We can view that one way that business is going well or is it a sign of high staff turnover or possibly over trading. I don't know, certainly warehousing staff would be a high staff turnover business. But drivers are the most important resource and they are short, not only that there is a huge nationwide shortage of drivers. So that is concern...... it must be impossible to provide that super duper service with that many vacancies and also to adequately manage the expansion programme. It may only be a temporary problem but as a business owner myself I can see how hard that would be to manage.

I was planning on seeing this play out fully invested, but I may consider reducing my holding especially if some opportunity presents itself. If there weren't successful industry veterans at the helm and the safety blanket of freight I"d be .....Thinking a bit more.

It looks like no further director buys as we are presumably in the closed period now. So it looks like like radio silence from D X and me as well as I need a break. Really looking to the results now and if there are any trading updates of the first three months of this financial year given with the results and any director buys after results release.

Enjoyed the positive contributions from the regular posters and hope you all enjoy the rest of the summer . Ports

As usually a long term investor I didn't think for one second my contribution to this board would last less than week and consist of two posts. The increase in the SP on the sentiment wave following the financials is far more than I thought or anticipated. "Take your Profit" was the most important investment lesson I was ever told and it trumps everything for me and the growth in last five weeks or so is good enough in my case. Doesn't change what I think about the company and its strategy though which I think is excellent so I think your investments are in good hands. Good Luck All.

Been buying into this share for the past six weeks or so. Really because of the strategy which I think is very switched on to the way the market is changing.And that there are women at the top which is something I'm a great fan of. The other crucial point is that they have found a niche which is vital in the fickle world of fashion. I think the company valuation is about right but I plan to be here for a few years.

No Need to apologise Deep. Its only natural for less experienced investors to seek guidance from more experienced people. I've done it myself because that is one of the ways we learn.I'm inclined to help because I was helped immensely once and pointed in the right direction. Guidance is everywhere but the problem with chat boards is that you don't know who you are taking guidance from and that's a big risk.

However, one of reasons I don't post on many other boards, is that they can desend into talking about other shares and all that follows and it just becomes unproductive. To click on a chat to think somebody has something worthwhile to say and then it turns out to be a discussion about another share.

Sorry, I shouldn't have posted that.... this is a DX share chat.
Mentally and Physically frazzled and not thinking. Apologies.
Ignore my last post.

Deep, I'm not sure I'm the person to give you any guidance as we have a different strategy .... and there are lots of ways to skin a cat. !

One share I have bought alot of over the last month is SOS. I have involvement in similar work and really like their strategy and business model.The women at the top are bright and I like women in senior decision making positions and I think the world and business would be in a better position if there were. They also seem to have found a niche which is crucial. Not sure on the length of my journey as fashion is fickle but where they are on the business cycle is of interest at the moment.

No advice intended of course. its just of interest to me.

Yes Deep, a bit hesistant at the moment. I think the valuation is about right. If we see some more director buying I might think again. They have said results will be out late September so the closed period starts imminently. I also wonder if any of the other directors would have followed Lloyd by now, he notified on the 5 July. There also limits on what price sensitive information they may wish to release prior to results being released.

We know new openings are coming but they may delay detailed disclosure of these under publication of the results. If they do we may see a short term small spike but it is my guess the company wouldn't like to see much change in SP prior to results publication.

I can't really see any detail in contract wins coming as to who they are.etc DX haven't really done that in the recent past and I would think they would want to play their cards close to their chest.

Incidentally I made a trip to the Airport at some god forsaken hour this morning. Unable to sleep I scanned through DX vacancies. It seems something is happening in Luton and Dewsbury. Please to see growth on M62 corridor.

Watching brief for me to see how the DX Express strategy pans out with the working capital required to support the growth.