Member Info for pomander

I sincerely hope SS and / or Ollie know something, but I am not pinning nay hopes on that. Fingers crossed for a positive update before month end.

But where is the money going to come from to build it ? Surely that should be in the bag by now ?

Just catching up now Bignose. A production capability of 16 million per annum within next couple of years seems a bit over engineered for 100,000 unit peak sales in 25 years ! All very interesting- seems there may indeed be another plan underway, hope its all linked to a sale of the business. Up on decent volume days, down on low volume days - good sign. Looks primed at long last for a breakout to me.

If its 50,000 unit per batch or 8,000,000 annual capacity- any scale up does not make sense in the context of your estimate of 100,000 units sold in first few years. You have still got to produce the stuff to take advantage of economies of scale If you are correct, most of it will perish in the warehouse ! Anyway, time for a Estrella Galicia and hopefully a decent round in the morning.

Alq - I get all that stuff, but being a simple kind a guy I ask why have they been faffing around for so long giving up exclusivity increasing the maximum production capacity to 8 million per annum, when by your estimations they may never even reach a need for one tenth of this capacity and in many years to come at that. So for first 3/4 years we might even have up to 80 x times the needed production capacity. Reducing unit cost and transfer price is a function of scale and you are really suggesting that there is no meaningful scale, in which case I would expect to see the adjustment at the other end - retail price point.. I understand that pharma's agents typically send out to all and sundry taster documents which may or may not include detailed sales/market projections, and the negotiation process begins form there. It was JG that said Recordati pitched much stronger numbers to RP, presumably to show they were a better option than a rival bidder. Anyway, its hardly that important. There were sales in the UK without any marketing campaign whatsoever, although admittedly small, the compounding effect is a powerful one and I note Fortacin is available on line again in the UK.

Matt - Its an interesting situation because securing licensee's is normally the holy grail for all small pharma's as obviously they cannot take a product to market on their lonesome. It is also normal for the licensee to consider the licencors taster documents and then formulate its own view as to potential sales and then try to agree a deal on that basis. They don't normally wait for sales in other geographical reasons to happen. I just wonder if RP are holding back on the expectation of mush stronger sales thus putting it in a stronger position to negotiate the licence terms ? Its speculative but there must be some explanation as to why licence discussions have been taking place for literally years. Recordati signed up ahead of sales and the licence terms can be conditional.

Italian - I agree with Bignose's optimism, or why else why waste time and money and give up exclusivity to set up a production line with a capacity up to 10x peak annual sales. Points to expectations being much higher than those being guided, but time will tell.

No problem Italian - Bignose will probably be able to help as the resident production line/ batch expert but my question is a simple one. Recordati have projected peak sales which would normally take 2 to 3 years to reach of Euros 20m to Euros 25 m. At a wholesale price of Euros 30 that's between 666,667 to 833,333 units per annum We can produce 8,000,000 when probably only 250,000 Plus might be needed in first year unless sales expectations are much higher than being made public This would fit with the independent sales projections and JG's comments that Recordati pitched much higher sales numbers to acquire the license. Al;q- I appreciate pitching is not the normal way this process works, a teaser is sent out with projections.

Given Recordati have guided peak sales of 20 to 25 million that equates to 666,667 to 833,333 at Euros wholesale price of 30. Why much around, giving up exclusivity to get it up to 8,000,000 canisters per annum from the get go? I get the bit about unit costs, amended licences terms but still does not make much commercial sense to me, unless expectations are much higher.

So the council have deemed Thornton Science Park unsafe due to the risk of explosion of the next door oil refinery and want to retrospectively withdraw the original planning permission. I hope Phe is well insured for not many CEO's would assume that risk ! Its a huge issue but I am not surprised by the reaction on here.

Grow up Piltick, AND stop acting like a BIG baby. If you cannot afford to lose your money, then you should not be in a share like Phe. The glee associated with the pumping earlier today is seemingly fine ?

Piltick - may I steer you to the final sentence of the RNS - 'Our engineering operations continue unabated as we move to completion of our commercial design on a daily basis � supported by the empirical data we continue to accumulate though our testing regime � which will continue for the foreseeable future at the Energy Centre.� Without that empirical data I presume securing funding to build at 25 tonner at Protos will become even more difficult if not impossible. I also note that KA says that testing and collection of data will continue for the foreseeable future, so timing conveniently all left very open ended. I note its now back to pioneering hydrogen production with no mention of electricity- somebody really ought to let KA that Phe is not pioneering anything. As for the CEO of Thornton Science Park, what do you expect him to say - we been rumbled so time to shut up shop! At least we know why Thornton is a ghost town and happy to get any tenant possible.

Looks as though the spurt was on the back of positive sentiment in HK generally towards healthcare sector rather than anything RP specific and now profits being taken. Does demonstrate what positive news should generate in terms of SP action.

I thought we were meant to be breaking ground shortly having received PP to build a 25 tonne Mousetrap at Protos Park? KA's RNS does not appear consistent at all with the many news articles on this issue. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/university-chester-ordered-dismantle-120m-12654241

Piltick- so the short answer is you have not got a clue where 5 million (electricity only), 10 m (hydrogen) or circa 15 m (hydrogen, infrastructure costs, PP costs, maintenance costs, budget overrun etc.) will come from?

Osaka � from my many years of following this company, any forward guidance, management comment and announcements generally have always been very cautious. Hence I do not read too much into the statement to which you refer. Indeed it may have even served the purpose of acting as an inducement for small shareholders to take up the tender offer. I find it very interesting that all the major shareholders, except UIL who reduced their holding minimally from 14.32% to 13.53%, have maintained their holdings at precisely the same percentage as pre and post the tender offer as there have been no other Holdings In Company announcements. Is that just a coincidence? I just have a feeling something is being planned but could be wrong. If the future is so unforeseeable why do a tender offer at all, surely would make more sense to dividend the 5 million over the next two or three years ?

Ok Piltick - where's the 5,000,000 going to come from then ? Who and when is going to stomp up 5,000,000 to build a Mousetrap with no protection, untested to produce electricity ? 10 m plus additional costs plus inevitable budget overrun- call it circa 15,000,000. Its academic anyway until you let me know how its going to be funded ?

Nearly done on the FTC- hopefully we might see a special dividend >= to current share price fairly soon.

To put together a 25 tpd Mousetrap will need at least 10,000,000 plus with other costs factored in. Where's that coming from, when, and who is assuming the risk that it might fail and that it can be copied ?

Its a farcical situation - the CEO is claiming to be a Footsie 100 company in 4 years on the back of technology which apart from having no protection has not been adequately tested and proven to work on a commercial basis ! He is also delusional if he believes that Phe is the only company capable of gasifying waste at ultra high temperatures, should they choose to do so. Hydrogen may well end up being available at all the expected outlets but Mousetraps scattered all over the country with piles of old tyres and plastics will not for a number of very good reasons. It is a completely flawed model.