Member Info for pomander

Alq- when I first modelled Ple way back when, some 6 years ago I did on the following basis, and all subject to sensitivity analysis Male population est 2011 (Source World Stats Info) � UK-31.1 m, France- 30.7 m, Germany -40m, Spain -23m, Italy � 29.5m I didn�t even bother with Portugal. Combined G5 - 154.3m Addressable market � 1 in 4 males = 38.575 m Assumptions ( I appreciate my terminology maybe pharmaceutically incorrect) 1) %of addressable market view as a serious condition � 5% 2) % of 1) that actively seek treatment � 20% 3) Fortacin capture of market � 30% Market size � 154.3 x 5% x 20% = 385,750 Fortacin capture 30% x 385,750 = 115,725 or 0.003% of addressable market My pricing was based on �2 � generic retail price for Priligy to which I added a 15% premium for PSDD502 as it was then, to �2.3 per dose or �28 per can. Usage varies across the countries but for arguments sake let�s take 6 x per month. That equates to 6 cans per annum � total revenues - � 12,961,200 � so as you can see I was very conservative with my numbers. If we plug the anticipated retail price of �100 � total revenues =�69,435,000 but still way below RP�s own projections. So if we take the �25m in E5 guided by Recordati - add 4x US- �100 m and another �100 m ROW with an average royalty rate of 20%= total revenues � 45 m- that is above 50% of RP�s current market cap. So it looks to me that unless Fortacin completely tanks and no one buys the stuff, that the investment case is very sound even on a very conservative basis. If Fortacin shoots the lights out, then you are looking at a huge multiple of RP�s current market cap. This makes the investment case compelling for me, whilst I recognise that I am not part of the herd and the consensus would currently seem to be from the SP action that Fortacin will not sell in any great quantity.

Flow77 - twisted logic. of course they are feathering their own nests- as you say they will only exercise if and when SP is much higher so they are guranteed to be in the money. Back 1.2 p and they trouser �500k, not bad for no risk assumed. I agree with Jabber- and what they should have done is staggered the options in tranches with increasing exercise prices. At least that provides a real incentive, rather than a Christmas present. 90,000,000 is excessive, a complete joke and reward for complete failure to date. My guess is that they will do everythig to pump this, exercise and then dump their stock via the usual brokers. Welcome to AIM.

Twisted logic - just so you know, they don't have to pay anything unless they exercise the option so if Phe goes down the swanny they loose nothing - you loose your shirt, your pants and everything else you care to mention. In my book, the options are excessive and just another example of directors in faltering AIM companies feathering their own nests.

Loftgroov - or even crunching the numbers, although in case perhaps crushing is more apt ! I only made one mistake in business and that was to rely upon the experts.

Alq- RP in its presentation is not projecting sales on the basis of the total addressable market or all men with PE. It applies a 7.5% factor to this for what it calls treatment awareness which I assume equates to your total accessible market. In regard to EU I suspect this figure is much lower but those numbers are not presented. If I understand you correctly you are arguing that RP�s figures are overstated and should be 10% of RP�s projections � ie.EU �23.2 m. If you are correct it does beg the question of what the hell are the independent analysts and so called experts doing. Are you suggesting they are incompetent? I do have certain issues with your reliance on historical percentages � seems very conceivable to me that percentages opting for any form of drug treatment may well be historically low because there simply has not been any approved treatment available outside of SSRI�s or the alternative of dodgy OTC products. Your discontinuance rates also seem far too high. The logic of validating them by comparing them to SSRI�s I think is flawed as discontinuance rates for SSRI�s are extremely high because essentially its not a great treatment .

It really is quite a story- KA gives shareholders a load of old flannel about Placing Hillgroves shares to protect the share price and now grants himself 30,000,000 share options at rock bottom prices. You can't make this stuff up.

Options are not skin the game and nothing like granting yourself options when the SP is on its knees. 90 million - they are having a laugh and taking shareholders for mugs

Bignose - 4% top sniff and a better way to look at it.

We have no idea if Phe has the 'best' or 'cheapest' solution and right now it does not even have a commercial and marketable solution. There are many other approaches and there are many far more knowledgeable than me that beleive hydrogen will never be adopted to run vehicles of any kind. As always sacle will be key to unit cost reduction.

Hello Bignose- and top sniff as always - forgive me if I am teaching how to suck eggs, but the RP model if same as for US works as follows for EU Max Patient Population ( 38m - not sure where you get 32 m from) x Treatment awareness (7.5%) x payer type (EU 100% cash) x Price (�100 ?) x Number of cans pery year (4) x Doctors willing to prescribe (80%) x patient willingness to fill (67%) If we plug those in we get : Euros 611,040,000 or US$ 757,695,710 This is a million miles away from the quoted US$ 232 m figure. So, either the EU model must be different or the price point lower (Alq has estimated price will bec lsoe to �100) or combination of both. To get to the 232 m, based on the above model for US, market share of patient poulation would need to be circa 3%, not your 1.68%.

Bignose- I have mis-understood the launch announcement as meaning the milestones had been triggered by first commericial sales. So, hopefully as the first commercial sale is made by the retailer to the end user in each of the 5 countries a release might be made confirming this and the milestone being triggered. JG does have a knack of creating confusion.

Yes, I think JG's wording is very confusing, referring to supplying wholesalers by Recordati as being the first commercial sales is odd and not the point of key importance to RP in regard to triggering the milestone payments. I now understand that they become due when the retailers make the first commercial sale to the end user. I revisted the Dr Mike presentation at last years Master Investor - he refers to annual sales in Europe of �232 m ( a very precise figure) and then goes on to say that they are not our figures, but those of independent analysts- whatever that means. Unfortuanately a few minutes later in the rpesentation the annual sales figure becomes �300 m for x years at 15% to 20% - an amount worth having in his words !

I think the only relevant costs comparisons are for Phe are between 1) other producers of hydrogen and 2) alternatives to hydrogen. The cost of diesel will become irrelvant as it will disappear as an option.

Lisboa not so balmy, I was at the Benfica game on Saturday and it came down cats and dogs, but agau much needed. Difficult to sqaure increasing the batch size and production runs with delaying the launch if near term on sampling quatities are anticpated being necessary. I was referring to the �4 or 800,000k per country which has been announced as triggered and due without deduction. Dr Mike has certtainly done very well, a six figure slary at Ple, plus his other acttivities and now on the cusp of maybe a second blockbuster and hopefully a third to come !

Apparently they were gasified.

I think the Press Relase of 14th Feb and the Regulatory Announcement of the 13th covered this, although not the best woprdinmg used. I am not expecting anything further on the �4 m and quite frankly I am not sure it would make one iota of difference. The positive news can only come from 1) new licenses 2) positive FDA update 3) sales in a few months time 4) positive update on treatment for Viagra non responders which seems to have been excluded from any share price potential calculations, but again not sure this will make much difference to the SP until HK investor/broker community aware and the wall of money arrives ! Now for the broken record bit - recent SP action only makes me more confident that the post SP action was due to a combination of a large stake being built and HK punters trading around this.

I don't but would not expect it to have any impact on the SP as seems to me RP is not widely followed. I suspect the important stuff was achieved in Lisboa outside of the presentation. Hope he took a brolly with him- certainly been wild and windy in the capital.

Did he tell you what he had for lunch ? I heard it was a disaster, almost cancelled due to the bad weather.

I also know that they have been in contact with Toyota. Toyota are now moving in the port of LA. We have been in contact for 4 months. They have only just made contact so I couldn't imagine they have got too far just yet. If you will persist in ramping with pure unsubstantiated speculation and gobbledygook, at least get your story right. Seems KA shares quite a lot of price sensitive information with Jabba- who then posts- market abuse !

Now, now Alq- you are up to your mischief again and speculating that JG mighy not know of Dr Mike'sISSM attendance is a tad churlish.. The RP announcement is very clear that the milestones have been triggered following first sales to the respective wholesalers; they are now due from Recordati without any withholding. If the milestones were to be triggered by first sales by the wholesalers it would surely say so? I don�t know about ISSM�s conferences, but if like most others,I suspect the important business is conducted and contacts made outside of the main hall. It�s a long way to go for a couple of 5 minute slots. I suspect Dr Mike will be rubbing shoulders with KOL�s whilst quite rightly basking in his success of being instrumental in launching another potential blockbuster drug following his success with Viagra. With a drug to treat the 50% of Viagra non-responders hopefully to come, Dr Mike is clearly a serious achiever in his field and one to be held in the highest regard.