RE: master investo19 Mar 2018 13:20
SOTRR- thank you for taking the time for posting the slides. Unfortunately they appear to be pretty much a carbon copy of the October 2017 presentation which itself was a carbon copy of the preceding presentation. I was rather hoping for something new, but suspect the closed period is a barrier to that.
For me considerable confusion remians on the mumbers and there remains a significant disconnect between those projected by RP and those by Recordati.
Whilst Recordati may have sound strategic reasons as a listed company for dumbing down the numbers lets look at the comparisons.
Recordati have pojected sales of between Euro 20-Euro 25 with the proviso that this may require uplifting, as predicting sales for a new PE treatment is very difficult. So if we assume they are 40% undercooked ( a percentage advanced by our resident expert, plus or minus). That gives us Euro 35 m, net sales - royalties, assumed 20 per cent flat - Euro 7 m to RP.
By comparison RP are projecting (this is peak sales and above is first year sales) Euro 232 m. This is retail so if we assume 50:50 split for add ons to wholesale price, we get Euro 116 m. Roaylties on that at a 20% flat reate equal Euros Euro 23.2 million.
Using this rather simplistic approach it seems to me that RP's projections are circa 3 times more aggressive than Recordati's.
There is now mention of China, a failry recent develomenet as Bignose has pointed out - and yet China does not even figure in the sales projections. Sureey if they are at an advanced stage on a lisence, they must have an idea on the market potential ?
I think this needs to be sharpened up, for if there are II interested ( and I am not sure RP is on the wider HK investor radar) they might have similar questions on the numbers.