Research Note15 Apr 2018 16:32
I stumbled across a researchh note on Recordati issued by CFA Insitute Research Callenge -CCB Capital management.
http://www.italiancfasociety.it/store/1240_CCB_CAPITAL_MANAGEMENT.pdf
In brief projects peak slaes of �40 m at best. Whilst ok, some way short of the US dollars 232 milion or Euro 190 m peak annual sales in the graph on page 20 of the company Overview Oct 2017.
http://www.regentpac.com/ICMServlet/download/18-2154-3507/(1F)CompanyOverview-RPGL(October2017)-English.pdf
On the positive side, further milestones should be achievable pretty quickly with a lot of headroom for error in CCA's research note. Indeed they wil llikely revert to their originally agreed level.
I think JG / MW should address the huge difference in the salesprojections for shareholders. An email to them on this might be a good idea.
MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT & OUR OPINION: Fortacin represents a new interesting products that diversifies REC�s portfolio in a ThA which is seeking innovative products to its unmet needs. There are currently few pharmaceutical products to treat premature ejaculation: Dapoxetine (Priligy) was the fist compound developed specifically for that disease but at least 5 other selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) can be taken into consideration. The major problem withSSRI is that they are antidepressant with potential side effects (like erectile dysfunction). Despite not belonging to an easy identifiable market, Fortacin will have to face the competition of many non-pharmaceutical products, from natural remedies to other non-pharmaceutical products that share its active ingredients (that can be bought online) to other famous topical treatments like EMLA (which shares Fortacin�s AI). Despite this competitive environment, we think Fortacin still has the potential to cut its space in a very difficult market. We think management�s peak sales estimates of �20-30M are conservative and that the product could
reach, in a best case, even �40M, but pricing is going to be crucial.
KEY ADVATAGES: safety, fastness (5min), can be used 4 times a day.
KEY OBSTACLES: Rx drug (requires going to the physician), cost, new launches (ex Zartane,Tramadol).
Fortacin has been licensed by Plethora Solutions for Europe, Russia, CIS, Turkey and other countries in North Africa for ~�11M. Launch is expected in 2017.
Obtain EU approval of variation to commercialize a canister with fewer dosages.