Member Info for Pokerchips

Stamp "mellowing into the day to day at NEX"

Stamp "Just pulling a huge salary & doing little"

Guys

I suspect you dont fully get the full responsibilities of a CFO and the workload it entails...the figures shown on Results Day are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the spreadsheets and work related to financial data management within the business and ensuring everything is audit compliant etc... many new data systems have to be set up with each new contract win and integrated into the main systems of financial control ..they dont appear by magic , and the CFO has a lot of overall responsibility for that ...plus re-finance the bonds and meet lenders, etc etc

I suspect Stamp is in constant contact with each Team of US,Germany, Spain, Tendering etc.... finger in every pie ..

His presentations are very clear and he makes it look easy , but there is a lot to manage and have legal corporate responsibility for .

"so how will they make moola LONG-TERM? "

Well they are obviously looking at taking some UK market share and looking for volume in passenger numbers..... push the brand recognition .... with a strong focus on cost control throughout the business

They have been going 3 years or so and in many parts of Europe ...set-up from Munich

RealityBytes

Bondholders look to be in the stronger position at this stage ..

The bonds have sold down nicely with some shorter help no doubt..... I suspect few initial buyers will still be holding at that Issue price.... I suspect some Hedge Fund scavengers have worked to buy some at low prices and take a very good yield coupon

The Bondholders may well know the bond wont be paid back when due and it is in the company best interest to have a D4E default , ..so the bondholders are quite possibly now pushing for the best Equity Discount they can get, ...maybe with intentions to sell some at a profit if a relief rally happened after the solution is complete ..all remains to be seen

Key shareholders will of course want to bargain for a softer Equity Discount ..so..the two sides discuss whilst Aiden chairs their views...I suspect...meeting somewhere in the middle or tilted to the bondholders advantage to get the settlement agreement

The BOD just running the day to day business

IMO

Scavenger

Maybe compare prices with some competition ..

https://www.flixbus.co.uk/

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2024/apr/16/coach-service-offers-journeys-across-the-uk-for-knockdown-price-of-2-each-way

"I can see why the market did hit us with a bit of a further cut."

well a £245.5m loss on shareholder Equity is a good a reason as any

Book Equity down to £1,066m

JG68

yes, and with dealing with frustrations ..I tend to find that if you face reality and timescales and fully understand things it helps a lot....

If we look at the Pricing/Volume increases for 2024 and add the estimated £50m savings ..then that is one hell of a fight to match the £100m inflation/costs ...so I have no doubt there is a lot being done ..just a kick in the teeth to get the German provision so high

A real test of patience through to 2025 I am afraid

" Did you top up today @pokerchips "

no..but very tempted now

I have a CFD short to hedge against long trade losses and am now tempted to bank the CFD short and put money in a Long .( i wanted exposure both ways) ... but... the traders are still inflation obsessed I think which affects the ongoing EBIT outlook ...and fund managers still see this as avoid as it has no dividend and any sale money will come by the year end ..some months away ..

JG68

450 new US Bus routes for 2024-25 and a $20m annual upside for this year compared to 2023 already shows the US teams are making progress on driver retention, contract renewal etc ..with much more price improvement to come in the next pricing for the contracts coming up...which will be ABOVE the inflation rate

JG68

I thought the CEO was OK.... at the end of the day..it is the teams themselves that are doing the work out in the field such as within ALSA, US Bus and Shuttle and UK and Germany ...and the CEO, Chair, Deputy Chair and NEDS are all supporting those teams and team heads ...

I have no doubts about Ignacio having a good understanding of the business ... I suspect he has visited the US,Germany, Spain etc and even places to support tender bids as well as meeting lenders, key shareholders during the difficult period

The German Rail provision is now set and wont be a further knock , and is actually placed now to work on recovering ..say £20m over time

If they made say £200m EBIT this year on favourable wind and had a substantial drop in the exceptionals overall ..then the earnings could show some good improvement on the recovery path compared to 2023

" Big buy of 1,070,515 shares? "

That is the closing auction UT ... not one buy but many trades , agreed to buy at the closing auction price , to clear the book

suggest to me that sellers or shorters have bought back in the auction, now the price is at a low

Market will now wait until FED meeting and the next inflation figures and wage growth figures -IMO

Room for SP pick up by H1 Results if external data supports

" When you consider the running costs (fuel, maintenance, fleet renewal, staff wages, driver relocations etc) "

In house maintenance, wholesale contract prices for repair parts, plus hedged prices for fuel ( in relation to your own spot price for petrol) .....all contribute to a lot lower "cost" than what you may release ...fleet renewal is now largely leasing on Elec buses

"And if you want to mix your useful facts with a bit of passionate rhetoric about your investment then no problem with me"

Wigwammer,

It is funny that holders always like Ramping , but scream the place down the minute anyone has "passionate rhetoric" with regards to de-ramping

the aim of "rules" is..believe it or not ...to remove both .... so one sticks to debating proper issues..rather than unsubstantiated baseless "opinions" aimed at controlling forum boards rhetoric or even causing forum "squabbles"

"Is this likely to affect FCF for 24 ?"

It affects the use of FCF ..see slide 12 from Webcast ..click on it and you get the relevant Stamp vocal

Guys

I STRONGLY recommend that you re -look at the Webcast.... you can stop/start/pause/rewind .....first time round there is a lot to take in...second time round you will quite probably pick up a lot of detail and information very valuable for understanding the business

The German Bidding problem occurred in 2015 and the problem hit the fan in 2023 .....plus driver shortages that take 12-18 months of training ...an industry wide problem... but the issue is causing an oversize affect on cash outflow issue for 2024 , with many other positives to be gained from the rest of the business ongoing and into 2025

I also found seeing Ignacio the second time round he actually came across well...it must be remembered his native language is Spanish ...

450 new US Bus routes for the 2024-25 year already secured is one snippet to show why they will wait until later in the year to undertake the Bidding

UK Bus 18% revenue increase in Q1 2024 Yoy and a removal of the Network/Price restrictions from Jan 2025 makes that 2025 will provide more flexibility and possible automation of price increases ...

As expected ...2024 is still recovery year against inflation costs etc ...but... 2025 has many things that will show through

"Did they mention anything about NA sell off"

Aim is to conclude the process by the end of the year

Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-will-yen-carry-trade-end

Wealth

It was interesting what statistics Stamp gave about Q4 year on year and the momentum within Q1 ... so some optimism there ..to take forward

I wonder if the BOD now see the need to publish Quarterly revenues ..it seems more essential than ever .... disappearing for 6 months can surely no longer be seen as acceptable

This is linked to inflation data ... Stamp more or less said it

Wealth

You have investors like JPM who are currently loading up equity swaps , CFD shorts etc to make money out of the headwinds at the moment

It is only "dumb" Private investors who go out in a storm without an umbrella ( dont use any hedge ) !!!! ... i say that in the sense that PI just bet long ..so complain when they suffer from such a strategy