Valuation/margins10 Feb 2021 12:54
Afternoon, I’m just throwing some numbers around and trying to figure out if this is a no brainier... I’m using odx as a comparator, not to disparage that share so if you’re also in there please don’t have a fit. This is also purely on Covid testing.
Abdx have 12m capacity. Odx are ramping up to 2m. Abdx are obviously going to manufacturer something and they’ve got the same kit. Odx mcap is 170m ish, abdx is 85m ish. Half the mcap, 6 times the capacity.
Maybe £1 a test rev, 50p a test margin maybe? Ramping to 2m/month so less than £12m profit with a £170m valuation for odx. Same theory for abdx gives £72m profit, they already have that capacity and therefore the cost base, I’ve no idea what surescreen are doing with their army of 200 to get to 20m tests - manually making them?! £72m cash vs £82m mcap for Abdx seems a much better bet.
What have I missed? Any thoughts on margins?