Member Info for pijoe1212

i have undertaken a quick and dirty NPV10 calc, but assumed much (hedge costs / spot prices / production declines etc etc). i like the answer but too many unknowns to be sure. with all oilers you have to look at the enterprise value (Mcap plus debt) before doing any comparisons. a good "rule of thumb" for north sea is c. $50K per flow bl. the extra 19Kbpd from the deal needs to be discounted down to reflect the payments to BP...in round figures call it say 11K bpd ..add in erskine and you get to 13K bpd, so on that simple metric you get to say $650M EV. given no debt that translates to about �500M EV or �500M Mcap.. big assumptions in the above, but even allowing for missed costs / cap ex etc, i make that way north of �1 a share..... another way of looking at it is the current erskine production throws off shedloads of cash, but the single asset risk has (in my view) held back the Mcap to a very low multiple of free cash flow..that risk is now much reduced...so on that basis by itself this is a good deal... the lack of placing is great...i am sure a few II's will want to buy into what will be a significant NS player..so they have to buy in the market..

buzzlightyear isengard has been commenting here for some time (near 2 years)..he is down (as are many of us). i can understand what he is saying and why (and from an accounting perspective he is correct). in my view he is not a moron - just a frustrated shareholder. apology in order?

lol so pleased a few on here told me i was a moron for saying this was pumped by abman (the total share guru with perfect forward vision). of course others such as inner made it even clearer with tech knowledge the rest of us don't have... they are clearly very clever posters but now poorer..such a shame

will do Q1 2018 or is that 2108? i get so confused...

were into profit land...!!

wuffle i don't look in here very often, but have a core holding and a trading holding (have since low teens). your take on the cost recovery cash flow is mine also. Ogo (apr drill hopefully next year) is a biggy in my view (and yes a am very up to speed on Ogo history...). there low % in PI hands...so not many peeps holding or posting on here compared to the uber rampy shares or those with a dominant PI shareholder base..to me that is no bad thing - value will always out..I remain currently long in the trading pot, over and above core holding.

Take care in all respects and do make sure you post your share transaction on this share and copl. There a good chap.

fancy seeing you here...

i posted 19:51: "i posted at 19:31 the following: aberdeenman you state "I talk to a lot of CEO's privately, everyone knows the score." in your post 19:15. if they tell you anything not already known to the market and you trade after such discussions, then are you not guilty of insider trading? i invite you to clarify your statement. i posted at 19:38 i stated in my post at 19:31 - "i invite you to clarify your statement." i repeat the invitation for you to clarify your statement. i note you have posted between these times and after the second request. i can therefore assume (for good reason) you have read my posts and have had the opportunity to respond. this is the third and final request for you to respond. i am sure you know as well as i do why i have to provide you with three opportunities in the public domain to clarify your statement." you sure you do not want to respond?

i stated in my post at 19:31 - "i invite you to clarify your statement." i repeat the invitation for you to clarify your statement.

for what it is worth i finished taking my position in arg today..

a few months back.. i have always done ok over last few years..despite shite IR..bought back and sold out for nil gain.. i trust this bod as much as i do JC @ labour for the good of the country..not at all. so out now..shame they could not respond to a single e-mail or call..untrust worthy *ankers in my view..

interesting idea about the buy back...one can only assume the bod have line of sight to a use for the cash or the authorities to buy back shares are not in place (i have not checked but it is a normal agm resolution to provide authority to do so, so i assume this is not the case)

in my view the biggest risk to SL sanction currently is Catcher coming on stream without issue. another solan would see the debt holders in pmo getting very risk adverse. but pmo need to keep the new bls coming on stream to offset declines in current fields. tolmount fid is due first..(not close enough to the detail on pmo to understand if this is also subject to Catcher start-up for the debt holders). without question solan has left pmo with a need to re-build credibility. i also think the funding will take some months more yet - i can not see FID pre-easter with H2 being far more likely.

do you guys get the rkh investment case? i can only assume not. short term should be the watch word on this BB for most posters? i feel sorry for peeps with high averages (acquired pre-oil price drop esp).. but this investment case is about gearing to oil price and has been for 2 years. SL will happen (in my view) with oil above c. $55 ..and have said this consistently for 2 years.

i think you are being a little hard on TC. he has never hidden his view is over one or two cycles of the oil price. always has been! this was never a share to hold for a short time..and by that i mean years at least! i am sure all of us wish we had not bought before today with the sp were it is. deals can not done at current oil price, but assets can be bought on the cheap. this was as much a bet on oil price - far more than most aim oilers..blaming others for poor investment choices is easy but the reality is we each make our own choices..now i have to say the IR / PR here is second to none for being *rap, but i invested knowing that.

i recall your post.. nothing came of it..but then nothing was likely until oil price changed direction... meanwhile so long as finance matters progress i remain hopeful..ok better than hopeful!

just found a new co of the same name at co house registered this year...back to sleep

gemini resources ltd are showing at companies house as voluntarily struck off last year....very strange...

isen.. your old friends are still here. ap remains a great poster .. why oh why do i not always see eye to eye with him? i thick it is because he does not like chicken bridge.. tr had a sex change ..? or not.. hassle from a poster into real life so boys in blue required late 2016... glad to hear you now hold several stocks! i remain in here and it was always a 3 to 5 year investment (just wish i had invested later!)