RE: Pijoe13 Feb 2018 23:06
Evening rookie
i see it in a very simple way on a first pass basis, and i will not bore you with a secondary basis!.i make no applogises for mixing up finaicanl ideas / calcs here- I am trying to keep matters reasonably simple!
i will split my comments into: producing assets; contingent assets; SL and cash:
producing assets:
rkh has assets that produce c.1000boepd ..on an ev basis I would value this as c. $35M equity value (I consider the timeline to be sufficiently long to be comparable to other �oilers�)
contingent assets:
rkh have not declared the quantum of the OM claim or the chance of success. I would suggest (on good basis) no results only legal firm would take the case on a �no win no fee� basis unless the chance was at least 25%. I would opinion (and no more than that � my opinion ) the claim would be for some say $150M..so on a risked basis lets call that $40M (�30M)..but given the CNE experience of india..lets call that �an icing is over and above and not priced in or should be at this stage�.
SL
Phase 1 should see some 200mbls to 2P. now 40% of this is to rkh..but the �deal� is to reset the npv to 50/50 with pmo at time of fid with �finance charges� back to pmo after carry costs (to pmo). I think this �deal� is missed by almost all PI�s in it�s significance �it set a marker in value. Now what does that mean? I would suggest this means rkh get at least 40% of the npv, but pmo have accepted 50%...for pmo to farm out they need to see this agreement honoured..
But what is the �real deal� on getting phase 1 away (to fid)�without question fogl t/o was all about future farm out( 2 v 3 cos is much easier)�so I think a farm out will happen. Note the above point about the 50% npv�that will be the marker I (and others) will refer to..
What is the value? What is the FID phase 1 deal? (I think phase 2 / issy phase 3 is easier to see..). either way lets just say phase 1 is at FID $5/ bl to rkh and 80M bls..so lets just say $400M (at fid).. now lets discount that back on a risk basis..say 50% chance of fid in a time frame that does not discount the value of money (NPV)..lets say $350M (FID in H1 2019)..
What is the remaining 2C worth (at least some 150M bls+)? That has to be a split questions- now or post sl ph 1? The value will be different and any investor would need to consider the time and time discount factor.
Cash
We know rkh is spending on pre fid sl costs (what a surprise!). it is also investing in the producing assets. It had $51M end of year � this was inline with my expectations, given the SL feed costs /closeout drilling costs.
So what is my estimate of value? Work that out on a risked and unrisked basis?
only my "short form" view
hope that is useful