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They said they were "expecting pipeline orders to begin to recover, starting from February 2024", and the CEO obviously believed that, with his purchase at nearly 14p.
They'd know by now whether sales have indeed recovered, but haven't informed the market presumably because they are too busy running the business!
Meanwhile, with its pitifully low share turnover, it only takes a few nervous investors to knock the SP for six. But at sub 10p, it surely can't go much lower, so I would say it's a great opportunity for anyone not already heavily into this share.
Whatever the trading performance has been since the profit warning, the SP has certainly deteriorated. The CEO's lost about 30% on his own purchase, his colleagues much more. But they won't be too concerned, as long as they expect the next update to confirm that the company is back on track.
In the meantime, as we are in a close period, there won't be any more directors' share purchases to settle the market's nerves, so as you say Mr BB, we'll just have to be patient.
What I mean is, I'm pinning my hopes for a recovery in the SP on the contract rather than a takeover - though I still don't think the language ML have used necessarily makes a takeover unlikely, because I think when ML talk about M&A, Trak being already an associated company is regarded as a special case, not to be lumped in with the various other companies they are targeting.
From Ml's final results today:
"The Company remains alert to further acquisition opportunities, particularly internationally, both in markets in which we already operate as well as new geographies.
"M&A remains a core part of our strategy and we continue to see a robust pipeline of opportunities. We continue to assess further acquisition opportunities, with a current focus on international business, both in new geographies and in those in which we already operate, and will act appropriately should they align with our immediate and long-term strategic focus."
Personally, as regards the possibility of Trak becoming a target, I'm setting more store by that elusive software contract than anything else....I just hope we're not kept waiting again till the end of the financial year!
KBYK - it certainly does feel like Groundhog Day!
Interesting that ML/Raza now have £1.1m tied up in CLN's, and with the lower conversion price of 8.1p, this will potentially give them an additional 13.6m shares, taking them to c38% I think of the enlarged share capital if no one else converts. Edging ever closer to a takeover?
By the way, I wonder who the undisclosed subscribers - who've stumped up £590k of the £990k - are. It's hard to believe, with the large sums involved, that they're not connected with the company in some, possibly obscure, way.
dc2 - maybe agreement was close when the software contract was first mentioned. Then something or other happened to delay it....
Yes, what stands out is the timing. Were they crying wolf last week, I wonder?
On the face of it, today's announcement is a clear vote of confidence from the directors. Cynics would say, yes but it's in their interests to keep the company going, because that will ensure they can continue to draw their inflated salaries.
However, this is not true of Raza, who's put in another £100k. Then again, what is that to someone worth well over £50m?
Overall, though, I think today's RNS is good news. I'm surprised therefore to see that you can buy the shares today cheaper than you could yesterday. I don't think this will last. It could even double if the elusive software contract is landed.
ML's SP has jumped today following its RNS re a AU$20m contract - good news for ML is indirectly good news for Trak of course.
Also, ML have confirmed that its audited results for 2023 will be issued on 9/4/24, together with a presentation to investors at 11am on the same day. The presentation may be worth watching for any clues about their intentions towards Trak.
It would be nice to think ML will at the same time take the bull by the horns and announce a takeover of Trak - at a decent price of course! But I suspect nothing will happen and nothing will be said, unless they are specifically asked to comment.
More likely is that the long-awaited contract will be landed by Trak, and the SP will drift back up a bit, perhaps as KBYK said to 14/15p, or a bit higher even depending on the size of the contract. But still not high enough to reverse (most) investors' losses...
"Why would you sign a contract with a business that is potentially going to run out of cash"
All the more reason for ML to take over the company.
Though in any case a substantial contract should automatically stop them running out of cash.
According to Allenby, "Management remains confident that a contract will be secured."
The RNS was not nearly so bullish, but perhaps they didn't want to tempt fate.
By the way, QTX has lost 70% of its value since 2021, so they've also had their fair share of banana skins.
A couple of points.
If Trak is so badly run, why have ML - and Raza personally - invested so heavily (starting with £2.3m in shares, before digging themselves in even deeper by lending £1m?) Have they too been fooled? Or have they just been distracted by running their own business? Or do they know/believe something – something positive about Trak – that we don’t?
Also, why have the large shareholders not bailed? They include the ex-FD with roughly 5% of the shares – surely he, of all people, should be able to judge the situation the company is in.
Whatever the situation, let’s hope something happens soon to bring this sorry saga to a conclusion.