Member Info for Phyl

Top notch overview report from Myles which I for one totally concur. Answers every question an existing or potential new investor could possibly ask and some. Brilliant insight into SAE. There's one glaring error to spot!

Once again oldtramp thanks for sharing this invaluable piece of research/information. The Uskmouth building blocks appear to be coming together nicely. The air quality is of the primary considerations for any Natural Resource organisation to consider when assessing whether or not to grant an environmental permit so this comes as a relief but not suprise.

Strangy83 and everyone will have an opinion. Here's mine:
The EP deadline is the 19th March. This is the date that Dr. David Poole has targeted for making the decision. This means, the answers to the outstanding questions raised in December will need to be provided by circa mid Feb ahead of any further challenges. I believe the chances of obtaining the EP are extremely high. I want to say 100% but I'll say 99% for the same reason any cleaning product states 99% effective in killing germs. They never say 100%! The reasons: SAE have secured the services of Graham Reed, a well known, well respected and highly experienced project manager with an engineering background & history of bringing to fruition building projects from around the world. SAE believe they can utilise this expertise during the pre & post EP when a number of building works will need to be undertaken. The SUP team themselves are in constant dialogue with NRW in a positive way. I know this because I've been told the same by my contact at SAE directly. There has to be a justifiable & legal reason not to grant the permit. NRW have already paid reference to this in writing during the early stages of the application when consulting with other interested parties. Lest we forget the majority of the questions/challenges have already been provided. We must also remember that the original application was for a variation to the existing permit but this changed to a new application by way of NRW recommendation due to new legislative environmental requirements hence the delay. This would ultimately benefit us & NRW as they will be responsible for holding a post public consultation process with any objectors etc. & help overcome any public concerns more showing full due diligence had been taken not to mention abiding by the law of the land.
In answer to the question about the SP movement, this is a piece of string. Back in August, the SP jumped to 32p on receipt of a positive RNS. This is arguably a more significant update. If the base SP is as it is now, in other words, around the 22p mark, I can see it jumping to circa 35p on immediate news. Remembering this is perhaps the major milestone to achieve with the next being the PA itself which should be a formality. The SP should increase commensurate with each milestone attained thereafter.
Hope this helps for now.

Hi oldtramp, many thanks once again for this invaluable summary. Excellent stuff. We should mention, a successful SUP outcome is in the best interests of the local economy. A new data centre could be situated on site to further support the local economy. NRW as we've said many times are fully aware of this. Cara & Phil ably supported by Sean are continuing to make progress so no change there. Lest we forget, theres also the JV with N&P on the pellets, arguably (on paper) the most profitable winner. So many positives it's hard maybe not to ramp the opportunity.

Think there's a bit of a difference between Graham Reed with his credentials as opposed to the Farage/Trump combination. Lol

I for one respect everyone's opinion even those that disagree with me. This forum, like no other, remains hugely respectful of one another. Once again, we have received an out-of-the-blue RNS whose timing, as some have pointed out odd. Once again the SP has suffered as a consequence. I might take issue with the timing though. SAE/SUP remain extremely optimistic as many of us do including myself that the EP milestone will be reached with a number of other milestones within sight including PP for the site itself including the likes of the storage facilities (silos) etc. Plus lots of other building works that need to be carried out. With the EP (and perhaps most important determination) in sight, what better time to bring in someone that has all the relevant experience with track record at this point in time? I would therefore counter argue that it's the best possible time.

No mate. SAE about to provide the information as requested by NRW in December. NRW have stated their determination date is the 19th March. Graham Reed has an engineering background and will be used to get the project over-the-line as per the RNS. As it stands absolutely nothing to worry about on that score.

Completely agree with Strangy83. Sanjeev Gupta has visions of taking SAE to new heights and requires a leader that has a strong CV, experience & track record of achievement with a large company mindset. Graham Reed delivers on all fronts and is a positive if not fabulous appointment. Tim C, with all his relationship skills and 2nd to none understanding of tidal is still around helping to support the new incoming CEO. What's not to like? The market will undoubtedly drop as they tend to do when there is a directorate change of this magnitude mainly borne from those investors not understanding the situation and bailing out like its a sinking ship. SAE is not a Titanic. This matter will undoubtedly settle next week, normal service resumed and in the meantime and I hasten to add once again, the SP has become mouth wateringly tasty prospect. As a reminder, we dont have to wait too long for the EP determination which we trust will be positive. What a great start to life for the new CEO that would be!

Hi oldtramp, you're very welcome. I've just gone through your calculations and can confirm they are spot on. Thanks for sharing them as I think they are useful for both existing and on-the-fence investors. The profits as you've highlighted are very significant and very much feasible/part of the plan and not as some may think, pie-in-the-sky. We gain on every ton of non-recyclable waste we take in and lest we forget the £100/t is at today's prices. NPA have not as yet released their price list for the PAF's for 3rd party customers but I would assume anywhere between £50 -£70/t. I guess this will be more of a commercial negotiation between the two parties and dependent on volume & logistics. The PAF itself is absolutely unique and hence can be considered an alternative fuel gamechanger. The product will continue to be developed to take out even more carbon, NOX, chlorine etc and should prove too irresistible to other power operators. What's not to like: Meets emission targets, burns at a higher calorific & costs less than other subcoal alternatives. If they gave me half a chance I'd sell it myself! Ha ha ha. Without fear of sounding too discourtious there will be many that simply don't understand what's at stake here. I have a number of other investments but nothing excites me more than all that's going on with SAE right now. Thanks again for the maths. Absolutely spot on.

Correction, coal was previously £70/mt. More speed less haste!

Hi oldtramp. SUP will, in essence, be procuring their PAF pellets at just £4/mt. Coal was previously £7/mt but as you rightly say is now null & void. However, at £4/mt this compares extremely well versus wood that currently costs £100/mt. As you can see, this is a significant saving over wood alone. To answer your 2nd part of the question. The gate-waste costs are £100/mt and as this is a JV with N&P, we stand to gain an additional £50/mt thus creating significant profits both ends of the spectrum so to speak. As we are edging closer to the EP decision your question is timely. It therefore remains an extremely important & valid point and the reason why I continue to mention the word "transformational" year in a number of my own posts.

That's spot on OHS. The site itself can potentially accommodate a 3rd boiler but no plans to introduce one at this stage and would, of course, be subject to obtaining planning permission. As I write, my understanding (and I stand to be corrected) is the PA itself includes drawings for only 2 boilers. A 3rd boiler would we quite some distance into the future. To be honest, we'll be doing terrifically well to have both boilers working to maximum output!

Simec is a likely beneficiary to the fund pot for those companies looking to reduce carbon emissions. Hope this makes sense for now.

Hi Wenglishboy, they say patience is a virtue and you & your wife appear to have this in spades! Well done for hanging on in there. At the time and like any investor you bought on potential for growth. That potential has only grown & grown over the past couple of years culminating in what I believe to be a transformational year (2021) were SAE simply need to deliver. As we all know, they're batting on 3 fronts 2 of which are more likely than ever to springboard the business to new heights, namely, tidal & SUP. I hate to say it because the reason I invested was due to its tidal division business and certainly lots going on here to justify the current SP not to mention help toward being a growth & profit maker in this financial year but, alas, I concede it's SUP that's likely to be the catalyst for bringing you into profit. The EP decision is now very likely to be on or around the 19th March as I mentioned in a previous post but in any case, not much longer to wait now before your patience (In my humble opinion) will be rewarded. Lets continue to keep the faith.

I guess it depends on your view on relativity. 0.5% doesn't sound like a lot and perhaps the reason behind the muted SP so far today but it still amounts to just short of 2.5m shares. In my mind, not too an insignificant amount which, incidentally was RNS worthy. The point I'm trying to make is this purchase is in addition to their already significant volume and one that companies the size & weight of Janus Henderson tend not to make unless they are confident the SP will grow. I recall a similiar situation a couple of months ago when Morgan Stanley took an additional shareholding in Boohoo. This SP soared a few weeks later. Not saying the same will happen here of course but the omens look all the more positive when the likes of Janus Henderson make a move such as this one. This RNS therefore, shouldn't be taken lightly in my humble view. Hope this helps.

Interesting update regarding Janus Henderson increasing their stake from 6.97% to 7.02%. If experience has taught me one thing about wealth management companies... they're usually in the know! For those that are new investors, NRW have targeted the 19/03/21 to make their Uskmouth Environmental permit determination. This means qtr1 and not qtr2 as we were led to believe. NB: This information is available to the general public on NRW Uskmouth Power Station web site. Edging closer and closer then to the decision that, if successful and were all expecting to be, would be transformational for the company. Investors such as us might not do too badly from it either! Keeping the faith.

Absolutely Strangy83. As I said in a previous post there's a lot going on particularly with Tidal (SAE's core business division) but SUP likely to be the catalyst for a transformational year ahead. Lots to like here. Keeping the faith.

OHS/OT, brilliant posts as always. In respect of the subcoal PAF, you outline the most important benefits over more conventional biomass materials. The PAF that SUP are looking to introduce burns, as you say, much more efficiently thus better for the environment and as an added benefit of low cost at £4/mt. From a commercial perspective this is critical to the success of the NPA joint venture. The fact the fuel has been pulverized to 3mm using 50% non-recyclable plastic is therefore quite unique and one, you would expect, be of interest to current operators not to mention owners of ex-coal powered sites considering their options. What's not to like? Really important of course that NRW grant the Environmental permit (EP) which they ought to do once all conditions have been satisfied. This will undoubtedly serve as being the catalyst for its success in the open market hence it's ability to supply raw material at a competitive cost. I'm aware the SUP team themselves are working tirelessly with their suppliers & consulting partners to deliver all that's required. It feels like the team are edging closer & closer. Naturally, the Pulverized Alternative Fuel (PAF) is one source of additional revenue & profit for SAE moving forward but lest we forget, represents just one of the building blocks it's CEO talks of in the most recent RNS. As investors, we should rightly expect this year to be transformational across each trading division but delivering one very important gamechanger by way of SUP. Hydro & Tidal looking more likely than not to play out a significant part in helping the company drive it's revenue & profit growth this financial year. Exciting times ahead I feel and many thanks once again for your continued research & contributions. I for one find the data/information invaluable when considering my overall investing strategies of which SAE has & continues to play a significant part.

You'd have thought the Alexion deal would have been factored in by now. Since the RNS, the SP has skidded almost daily. The market's don't like the deal and the increasing value of the pound versus the dollar isn't helping and it seems like each time AZN deliver good news the shares slide! On a more positive note, the company is being ran by a world class CEO with world class ideas working for a world class company in my view. The SP I feel therefore will come good for its investors. Wishing all AZN investors a healthy & wealthy new year.

Hi mate, it's 67pence. Hope this helps for now.