Member Info for Phyl

About the effects of underwater turbines on marine life and in particular, porpoises...

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/for-good-or-ill-porpoises-avoid-tidal-power-turbines-180979491/

Credit due where credit's due... JCGI so far today, in the blue! Perhaps those positive commentators are right after all! Fingers crossed for onwards & upwards!

Another 3% fall today. Sigh... and to think, we pay these fund managers for abstract failure! If they where football managers they'd be sacked well before now! One of the worst performing China trusts. If this was a school report I'd be writing: "must try harder". !!! OK, China has been a dog for some time but if this continues much longer this trust will become a penny share! On a more positive note, some commentators are saying China is now undervalued and maybe the market to once again consider? Certainly hope so. Apologies for the rant by the way.

Is there no end to these losses?

Anybody out there?

Literally. The government have announced energy cap increases in the region of 54% today which are due to impact this forthcoming April. At least part of the reason for this monstrous hike is a lack of wind in 2020/21 driving the overhead turbines... well blow me down with a feather. Err, you can't. No wind! And there goes the problem. The wind (or lack of it) cannot be predicted. Unlike, err, tidal streams. Maybe, just maybe, this government will now sit up and smell the coffee or rather, the sea. We're surrounded by it What the government would give right now for a robust & sustainable tidal energy source. We'll guys, guess what, we have the source right here on our own doorstep. Never has there been a more crucial time then for our duly elected government to make a much needed & significant investment in tidal energy then right now. Wouldn't half be bad for SAE investors I hasten to add!

As I write, SP down yet again. This trust is anything but defensive. The shocking performance continues I'm afraid. Feels like I'm paying these fund managers for abstract failure! Sigh.

Unfortunately, the SP is once again in negative territory (-4%+) while the rest of the market is generally up. Not sure why this is the case particularly as the majority of share trades today are purchases. Fingers crossed for a recovery later on today albeit I won't bank on it!

I'm guessing many investors will be well & truly underwater with the current SP and particularly so those that bought at circa £15 a pop. Nervous times then & scary to think there could be further to drop. The truth is, nobody knows if the SP will continue to fall further into the abyss or not. Nobody knows if & when the SP will bounce back. However, the market has demonstrated it's ability to recover time & time again. Indeed SMT has always bounced back. Nobody knows what the true impact of its lead manager, James Anderson's departure in less than 3 months time will have on the SP. Granted, it's not looking hugely rosy right now for any so called tech based stocks but this market is as volatile as it gets and we shouldn't be surprised whatever happens. For all investors looking at a thumping loss and I suspect they may run into their 1000's, the one grain of comfort is the fact that during SMT'S 112 year history, this trust (the oldest in the UK) has continued to make its investors money. Patience is the key word here. As I see it, there are a number of choices including, sell or part sell your holding at a loss. Average down by drip feeding any spare cash. (not a bad ploy in my humble opinion) Do nothing and wait for the markets to recover remembering "the market is a vehicle for transferring money from the impatient to the patient". Good luck with your choices.

Generally speaking it was an open (and I think) honest appraisal of where they are right now. Pretty much reiterated that they were a forward looking company & confirmed their strategy around potential disruptive business's and it could take years to fully benefit the SP growth. Not a trust for the short or even medium term and dismissed inflation as transitory in the grand scheme of things whilst acknowledging anyone recently buying into them and seeing their investment not in blue territory might be somewhat nervous but their record over the long term speaking for itself. Seemed buoyant on China and Europe going forward. Europe I get but China? Did not seemed phased on inflation as I say nor on higher interest rates as the companies they invest in are not wholly dependent on this. E.g. Moderna which he spoke of highly. Despite recent misgivings they remain quite optimistic on Moderna citing HIV, cancer and other drugs in the pipeline. Personally, I think he came across pretty well but one thing is clear, this is not a trust for any short term gain. There is too much volatility attached to their holdings for that.

The above appertains to my understanding only.

Completely agree Spikeyj. SMT is considered an adventurous trust so really important to have some defensive stocks particularly right now to balance a portfolio. As you say, diversification is the key albeit almost everything today is taking a hit. It feels like we've been in a spiral for weeks now with some trusts & funds already down by more than 20% and that's before today's tempest! Some commentators are predicting a further 20%-30% drop but of course they don't really know for sure. One thing's for sure, after a market crash the market recovers and more than makes up lost ground. History suggests that's happened 100% of the time so perhaps we can draw some comfort from that? Some of my friends have or are about to sell (crystallise) a number of loss making stocks (their choice) in order to amass some dry powder. I'm not sure this is a good strategy but having some dry powder to spend on a rainy day I believe, certainly is although you can never ever second guess the bottom of the market as it seldom is. Same goes for what you consider to be the top. I should know, I've suffered both!

One could easily argue we're in a perfect storm. Higher than expected inflation, (not transitory) a likelihood of increasing interest rates not to mention equity over valuations. Small wonder then we're seeing what we are seeing. A 20% drop would take the SP down to circa £8.36 which is more than £1 adrift of their 52 week low. Quite possible of course and this is the reason I believe drip feeding (small amounts) could prove the best strategy here. Today's NAV suggests a discount in excess of 6.5% so one could be forgiven for believing the current SP is of good value for its bucks as it stands right now. Don't invest unless you have nerves of steel!

Hopefully James Anderson will throw some of his magic dust in the direction of Tom Slater just before he leaves in April! As you say, SFH300, past management/performance might not mean too much in respect of the future but at least Tom S has worked under James A for a number of years and more latterly side-by- side. He appears switched on & level headed from a number of various podcasts etc I've seen. Fingers crossed Tom and his team can continue the good investment choices of the past and implement them in the future. Goodness knows, the trust needs it! Now 6%+ down as I write.

Can't see £1.02 by COP today as current SP has fallen 5.87% to £0.961p.

I sold my SMT holding last year at £13.00 not knowing if the SP would rise further. (it did) I guess that's the point. Nobody knows what's going to happen. We can only hypothesise how deep the crash will go. It may go down to £9.50 and beyond. It might not. It might stabilise from here? It might not. For any existing investor sitting on a substantial loss I'd probably look at drip feeding any spare cash that can be afforded to help bring down the average unless of course you think the SP might continue to dive. Otherwise, for new investors, it might be wise to drip feed on a regular basis ( as I am) to help capture the lows & (hopefully) highs. But only if you were considering buying into SMT and you think it would be a good investment for the future as I do. Good luck with whatever you decide. PS: down almost 5% on the day

I wouldn't argue buying on a discount to NAV is a poor strategy by any means but I also believe it dangerous to try catch a falling knife. Another strategy is to drip feed a certain amount say every month regardless of the SP at the time. This way you capture the highs & the lows and you accept the mean average. However, as we all know, no one strategy is perfect. I 'm not saying anyone should try time the market here but I believe waiting for an upward trend particularly in these unprecedented investor times perhaps a tad safer strategy.

I agree traderUK. SP currently £11.23 which means the discount to NAV (@ £12.25) is now a smidgen over 9% and I wouldn't be tempted to top up or even make any investment in SMT right now. Today's one day fall as BIG as I've known and could easily fall even further. Just what we don't want!

I

We're currently 4% (0.50p) down on the day which is bad. Many other trusts appear to be having a black Monday as well albeit and I hasten to add, not to the same extent as SMT. Could be a mini market correction or something maybe more sinister? A great deal of patience needed here not to mention trust in the managers!

Yeah, an understatement to say SMT have found market conditions particularly challenging as have Baillie Gifford in general. Take, for example, their American, China growth and Global Discovery funds. BIG sell offs currently taking place especially tech stocks as investors move from growth to value investments. I think people are generally & genuinely believing there is one almighty stock market crash around the corner that could easily wipe 30% or more from portfolio holdings. Worrying times for all us investors. I think the 52 week low was around £9.50 but whether it falls to this or worse is anyone's guess. 3% down as I write. I'm neutral but for those having bought at, say, £13.00 or so, it might be best hang on in there & ride out the storm unless you believe that so called market crash is a distinct possibility. Personally, I'm selling as much as I can to release dry powder albeit I'm very much underwater on the aforementioned funds. Good luck with any investment decisions you do make by the way.

Incredibly worrying for all investors but also, a penny for the thoughts of the BOD this morning.. what must they be thinking?