Member Info for Phoebus

Back to flat since pre-spud rally and unchanged since end April 2020. Seems well OTT as basically nothing is priced in at this level. Has market forgotten the 12 well Canje drilling campaign scheduled for Q1 start? Ridiculous.

HUT + 10%, HIVE + 9%. This should have a rocket up its 'rse by now.

OK. Let's hope he's recorded a whole f'kin album while we've been waiting.

Has PW opened his pie hole lately or does he have to keep shtum for regulator reasons? If not he should be making some noise.

+5%

Over 7p to buy £10K+.

Seems poor form by TLW to update right at this juncture IMO, but it is providing a buying op. GLA

.

Some selling nearly 4p under TSX close. Very odd. Not seen news on any front yet regarding the well. I think TLW's presentation last week caused a few to take some cash of the table and the market is mistakenly taking that as Sapote related.

.

.

up about 4%.

Ah, I got you. Hope you manage to get in before this re-rates. ATB

I agree MNS.

BTC and ETH dropping a bit a bit as folks sell a bit to move into DOGE. All healthy and suggests to me this crypto rally is broadening further and supporting the idea we are about to make a major move higher. Hope so. GLA

Great thinking. Don't forget to factor in the cash on JHI's balance sheet.

This link to the Canje 12 well project summary should work.

https://www.epaguyana.org/epa/project-summary/summary/5-project-summary/770-canje-12-well-project-summary

No problem Monica. Gil will be waiting on Exxon and JHI before he can give further details, but here is the link to the project summary which was posted by the Guyana EPA on August 8th. The table on page 6 clearly indicates a 12 well exploration drilling campaign on the Canje block starting in Jan 2022 to Mar 2025, so not long to wait until the next well.

https://www.epaguyana.org/epa/project-summary/send/5-project-summary/770-canje-12-well-project-summary

ECO mentioned it in their Aug 31 RNS and have also tweeted about it.

https://investegate.co.uk/eco--atlantic--o--38-g--eco-/rns/results-for-the-three-months-ended-30-june-2021/202108310705071104K/
https://twitter.com/gil_holzman/status/1425770453654810624

Indeed. I keep forgetting about our Namibian acreage. For those interested, the wells are Total's Venus-1 on Blocks 2912/2913B, Shell's Graff-1 on Blocks 2913A/2914B and Azinam's Gazania-1 on Block 2B just over the border in South Africa. They are all due to spud Q4 this year. Maurel & Prom are also looking to drill Aurora-1 next year and that is surrounded by ECO's acreage.

Yes Monica, did you not read my post from 10:43 on Friday?

'... Exxon's 12 well Canje Block drilling campaign is scheduled to start this January. ECO's 2U net recoverable exposure on the Canje block is roughly 145 MMB. Due to the extremely low break evens I seem to remember Hess using a valuation figure of $7/B for discovered barrels on Stabroek. That equates to £736M or 368p per share net to ECO in the success case. Unlike Orinduik Canje has an operator with immensely deep pockets that is clearly very keen to get on with it. The risk is also spread across a large number of drills as opposed to one or two on Orinduik, so the risk profile is a lot lower. Clearly we would all like to see a drill or two on Orinduik, but make no mistake Canje can totally transform ECO's fortunes and there should be plenty to drive the SP here whilst we wait for Orinduik turbo charge the SP. By the time Orinduik drilling gets underway ECO may already have been completely transformed. ...'

In other words, starting with the current Sapote drill ECO looks set to participate in one Exxon operated well per quarter on the Canje Block for the next 13 quarters on the trot, each of which of which looks worth on average around 30p per share in the success case. That means that Sapote is just the first of 13 rolls of the dice for ECO on Canje. A discovery on any of those drills should completely underpin the current SP regardless of Orinduik which was itself being valued at over 20p per share last year even when drilling on that block was still expected to be over a year away. In my opinion ECO is in an excellent position, with a huge amount of news flow to look forward to going forward which will only accelerate when Orinduik finally gets the green light. IMO the biggest risk here is staying out too long and missing the first Exxon discovery and then having to pay a lot more to get in for a ride on the huge Orinduik drills. The risk reward here looks brilliant for an oil explorer and I'm very happy to hold.