RE: Calling it …. From Aces30 Oct 2021 12:25
Not announced yet Elgin. EPA application shows Jan 2022 as start of Canje 12 well campaign. They will recalibrate models and prioritize target selection based on all available data. We should also note that the applications for the 24 well campaign across Canje and Kaieteur were made after the Tanager, Bulletwood and Jabillo results, so if Exxon has decided to massively accelerate their exploration efforts on these blocks to the tune of what must be $1 billion or more gross, they must believe there is huge potential on Canje and Kaieteur despite the results so far.
Having looked at numerous maps of the Canje block, I have only seen three prospects identified, which are those drilled to date. However, we know from WTE's RNS statments that a CPR has already be produced for the licence which highlights that Canje contains 'more than a dozen prospects in the Canje portion of the Liza play fairway.' It is my undertanding that Sapote tested a different depsitional setting to Liza, which makes sense given it is separated from this area by acreage reliquished when the licence was renewed, so prospects in this area may or may not be in addition to this figure.
Clearly the Canje prospect maps have omitted the vast majority of targets on the licence. Once Exxon has determined the order of play for the next wells then we should get an updated map featuring the new prospects. This may seem strange if you're used to investing in small cap exploration stocks where every bit of info is shouted from the rooftops, but the big boys seem to keep their cards close to their chest like this and only reveal information to the market as it becomes pertinent. It should be noted that the Stabroek prospect maps are now littered with new fields which were not even shown on earlier prospect maps.
Looking at the overall picture I can't help but wonder if any of the new prospects will suddenly appear in the area of Canje to the south of Sapote as it appears to be directly in the golden lane that runs from Stabroek through Block 58 and on to Block 52. Exploration seems to be circling this area right now with the Kawa-1, Sapote-1 and Bonboni-1 stepouts reported or in progress and the Stabroek discoveries waddling ever closer with Cataback just announced. If they have a prospect mapped in this area, you would think it stood a great chance of being successful.
At the same time, as Noix suggests, any peceived lack of success outboard of Stabroek may encourage a bit more focus on acreage that is inboard, which leads us back to Orinduik. With Fantooth up next, the closest target to Orinduik at Cretaceous level or below, success there may make our acreage the next locical move.
It's a shame Sapote wasn't the result we wanted, but we have many more rolls of the dice in what is a staggering area. Give it time and I'm still certain we will do very well here. Have a great weekend all.