Yes Orion are not a charity. Very significant then that they continue to support BMN.
Vametco and Vanchem do indeed have the very signifsnt steel market as currently their main source of revenue.
However Vanchem (in my opinion the star of BMN’s production assets) also supplies high value chemicals and products for the aerospace industry. BELCO will soon start producing high value electrolyte as a new source of revenue.
As far as V price is concerned if you have been following BMN long enough you will know that the original rental product developed with Avalon (now part of IES) was specifically and explicitly developed to hedge against volatile V prices by drastically cutting the upfront capital costs.
At the same time BMN would be ‘raking it in’ from steel and other sales. Win win
Those who produce vanadium as co-product are dependant on steel production for their raw material. BMN has no such limitations and has more power to increase its own production.
Energy storage is not about the past. It is about the future growth of that industry and rising demand for electrolyte.
There is no chance of party is over RNS. That is just scaremongering.
If you don’t like the investment case then don’t invest. It’s your money.
Vanadiumdum “thanks faramog. For just a bog standard vanadium miner it's not that exciting,”
Really. A company that owns two of the four primary vanadium production plants and an active mine with the Brits along strike extension providing a secure source of vanadium for decades to come. Not to mention the world class Mokopane Vanadium project, as yet not developed. And both plants have recently been refurbished. There have been issues but even without significant capital investment BMN are working to increase production and reduce costs.
And of course BMN is so much more than just a miner with the two production plants serving a diversity of markets with a variety of products. And soon to be producing electrolyte too.
The main market for strengthening rebar is being supplemented by demand from the rapidly growing VRFB industry. That is likely to put pressure on the Vanadium price, which I think we would all acknowledge is not very helpful at present but which can rise very quickly from this level as history has demonstrated.
One essential step forward is completion of the refinancing deal which is in the best interests of both parties and is going to happen. Remember Orion are a specialist multinational mining finance company that have made a long term commitment to supporting BMN. I think they are capable of looking beyond the current vanadium and share prices and will recognise the future potential.
BMNs future is not without its challenges but ‘a bog standard miner’? I disagree.
Just my opinion. DYOR.
Thanks for posting that Agricore. A good read and much to think about.
Perhaps a few more sceptics will wake up to the potential for growth and profitability within the Bushveld group.
Vanadiumdum your post is exactly why I add DYOR to the end of my posts. I don’t do that for decoration.
You appear not to be aware that BMN has had a new CEO in post since 01 July 2023.
Craig Coltman had a long career with DeBeers a $multibillion mining company and part of Anglo-American. He finished his career there as CFO. With his extensive career in mining and finance in South Africa can you think of a better qualified person to restore faith in BMN’s finances? If so do tell.
Just my opinion. DYOR
Vanadiumdum can I start with your last point. If this seems like a very risky investment to you, and I assume by that you mean beyond your risk red line, then surely you can make up your own mind as to what to do.
As for the refinancing deal I think that putting % probability on this is just your invention and not particularly helpful.
So do I think the deal will go ahead? Absolutely. Both parties have much to gain from the conclusion of this package with regard to long term ROI. Bushveld need the refinancing agreement and Orion have publicly stated their long term support. They are a multinational mining finance investment company. I think they are quite capable of seeing the long term opportunity that lies beyond the current and transient share and vanadium prices.
Will the package go through as already agreed? I believe so. However the backstop shares may prompt some discussion the outcome of which I cannot predict. Yes Orion knew about the potential backstop shares when this agreement was reached but since then MUST failed to deliver and consequently 270 million extra BMN shares have been issued. On the other hand BMN/BE have a sizeable chunk of Enerox. Will that impact on the terms? I honestly have no idea (nor does anyone else here). Up to Craig to keep it all on track. Let’s see if he is as good as we hope.
Just my opinion. DYOR
Just to make something clear.
My posts mostly focus on BMN operations and issues related to vanadium and it’s markets, including energy storage. To those that are regulars here that may indeed seem to be pointless and repetitive.
However to those visiting the bb with little or no experience of BMN and perhaps looking in out of curiosity or in response to RNSs or other media events they no doubt would like to know details of what BMN does and what are its plans for the future.
I recognise that as I have a positive opinion about the future of BMN (backed up by investing more money recently and increasing my holding by nearly 20% … so far!) that will affect the tone of my posts. For that reason I clearly state ‘just my opinion. DYOR’. I do not give specific share price predictions or tell people to buy.
I am happy for people to challenge my opinions providing they give evidence and rational conclusions. I am not happy for that response to be a personal attack on me. I have filtered about 20 posters in recent months. Most have been filtered for personal abuse directed at me. None have been filtered simply because their opinions about BMN are different to mine. One or two I have removed from filter for various reasons.
By the same token others must understand that if you voice opinions on a bb like this you must accept that your opinions can be challenged. I accept that with regard to my posts and I challenge others if appropriate.
I try not to post anything here that I don’t believe to be true or cannot verify at the time of posting.
Of course things change and that can alter outcomes. For example I expected record production at Vanchem in Q2 but what none of us knew until results were published was that the reported supply of new feedstock did not arrive until July (scheduled for April) and that breakdowns in the electricity supplier’s infrastructure also would disrupt production.
As I have often stated there are no guarantees, other than I will continue to voice my opinions.
As always just my opinion. DYOR
Dollar Rand remains strongly in BMNs favour at 19.24, helping to ease the impact of soft Vanadium prices in Europe and China (Asia). I understand that in BMNs main market the US vanadium prices remain firmer.
The new CEO’s focus on raising production and reducing costs at Vanchem should deliver results soon. His own target was to achieve 180 mtV per month within 6 months. Barring the sort of unforeseen circumstances reported in Q2 Update Q3 will hopefully deliver increased production and a further reduction in costs at Vanchem.
The recently announced problems at Vametco may take longer to fix. They need to deliver the 200 mtV per month referred to in the Update for the remainder of the year.
Ultimately we need Vanadium prices to rise but anything that reduces costs is helpful.
I will repost an answer I gave even though the post I was responding to has disappeared.
“Phimx there is an error in your post that needs correcting. Acacia did not take 160 million backstop shares. See below:
Acacia before recent TR1s
3.54% @ 45,565,049 (approx)
After TR1 on 03 August (threshold crossed 11 May)
2.63% @ 33,797,618
After TR1 on 21 August (threshold crossed 16 August)
10.28% @ 160,103,265
As can been from above Acacia sold around 11.77 million shares by 11 May to raise funds to meet their obligation of $500,000 of new MUST CLNs.
Contrary to what some here claimed they did not sell out, as proven by their existing holding of 2.63% in the 21 August TR1.
So to correct your post Acacia did not take 160 million of the backstop shares. From the numbers above they took 160,103,265 minus existing holding of 33,797,618 which gives a figure of 126,305,647 or 46.7% of the backstop shares.
It would appear that roughly 144 million shares went to other CLN holders.
I understand from other sources that KS was not a CLN holder. There is more info on this but as I was not the source I am not going to share as I cannot verify it.”
Knutsfordnotary posted this yesterday.
“ …. get well soon Knuttie -who is undergoing his second spell in ICU after his cancer operation ( hopefully successful). ….”
knuttie sending you my very best wishes. I know that you are familiar with the challenges that cancer brings to a family. You gave great support to your wife in her battle with cancer and I am sure you will be equally determined in resisting this disease. Stay strong. Wishing you a successful recovery.
For anyone that does not know knuttie is a long term holder and has been a strong supporter of BMN.
Kind regards. Paul
Metatron I admire you for taking on the trolls. This is a very small group of nasty individuals who are determined to do or say anything to crush any positive posts about BMN.
I believe the best way to deal with these individuals is to filter them and let them show themselves up for what they are, and they will.
Just get on with focussing on BMN and vanadium. Let them play with themselves.
Thank you knutsfordnotary.
In part answer to your question I believe when permission was sort for the Vametco minigrid there were limits to how large a system was allowed to be installed. Since then the rules have been relaxed and I understand that further capacity is a possibility.
Vanchem not sure. Possible issue of space at that site? Others may be able to provide a more detailed response.