Member Info for pauldrayton

7 drills haggis ;-).

Yes some activity at long last, and hopefully more to come.

Well the first new employee has appeared on LinkedIn:

Ciaran Nolan, Senior Consultant Geoscientist

Looks to have plenty of experience, including in Norway.

Haha fair point Whirlaw, you're probably right about that! I'm not trying to be negative though and the reason why I invested here is because I seriously rate the management, in particular Helge Hammer. I don't think they are like the rest of the dross on AIM at all, and I expect them to stick to the LTIP.

Looking forward to seeing what they manage to get the placing away at.

Absolutely. The only danger is them buying in now with a lower placing price than the IPO (hope not), or issuing themselves with more options.

I hope they stick to the plan of the LTIP & basing the rewards on multiples of the original IPO price. It’s shameful how many AIM directors award themselves with more & more options at lower prices as the share price falls. They should stick to £2 being the threshold.

And yes the clues re this deal have certainly been there over the past 6 weeks or so.

Yes good points there daveri re funding structure.

In terms of PI involvement I don’t like Primary Bid because it doesn’t favour existing holders. I’m happy for the institutions to pick up all the placing shares if they are committed to holding them (although some will flip them of course).

I don’t mind an Open Offer later down the line for existing shareholders when they fund the production deals ;-).

I wonder if the institutions have been in a closed period since the end of April. Volume dropped off a cliff around then - not many of them seem to have bought & sold over time but we know some have. The major shareholder record was also updated on 30th April for no other obvious reason.

Agree with you there munch.

If the placing is going to be at a decent price then it needs to be oversubscribed and if the institutions won’t subscribe to it then it’s not a great sign.

I don’t expect any shares to be offered to private investors.

It would be nice to see the directors buying a significant amount of subscription shares to show confidence, and hopefully at a price higher than the IPO.

I’m not even sure if it’s worth us speculating to be honest. My main concern is how much exposure institutions want to exploration, but the tax rebate limits that to some extent. The board will be in discussions with them now - I’d say that the sooner we get news the better. Hopefully early next week, followed by a more detailed outline of this deal and their strategy from now on.

Good find Mogger:

“ Mr Speaker, last year I referred to the Sea Lion project being paused, this was due to the dramatic decline in oil prices, which affected the industry worldwide. Additionally, the onset of COVID-19 significantly impeded our ability to travel, which was incredibly disruptive for a sector which moves large numbers of employees around the globe.

However, I am happy to report that the government has continued to work closely with Premier Oil over the past year. This includes during the period in which they combined with another British company, Chrysaor, to form Harbour Energy. Harbour was listed on the London Stock Exchange on 1 April 2021, and government officers are now in discussion with the new management regarding the Sea Lion project.

We also used the intervening time to progress parts of the regulatory framework, and the long-awaited Offshore Minerals Ordinance is now advancing well through the legislative drafting process. When enacted this will bring in new environmental provisions and the implementation of the latest offshore safety standards, modelled on those in the UK. These are both critical in terms of ensuring that we have a robust capability to responsibly regulate future hydrocarbon development.

Meanwhile, the project planning process has now resumed in order to help define likely timelines and priorities. We are hopeful that the current recovery in the oil price to almost $70 per barrel, will be maintained, and in turn will create the conditions needed to support the successful execution of the Sea Lion project”.

They’ve stated the 10th June to close the placing so I suspect they will be doing the rounds and presenting the full details to institutions this week and we will find out the price next week. So a bit more patience required, and the relist probably won’t be for a few more weeks at least.

I think the slightly muted reaction is because this deal in and of itself is not in line with the strategy of acquiring production & cashflow.

The deal looks quite exciting but it’s not production and after 18 months perhaps I was hoping for more than exploration exposure. I wonder what kind of appetite there might have been had this been the stated strategy at the outset - probably less I suspect. I also wonder how much appetite the institutions have for exploration compared with production, and the ramifications of that for the placing price. I stand to be corrected if there is plenty of demand and they can raise at a decent premium to the IPO.

I hope that this is just one of a number of deals they are working on, and that they are still aiming to add a production deal on top of this but we don’t know for sure at this stage.

I think an updated presentation at some stage would be useful to clarify what happens next in terms of the M&A strategy, and whether they intend to continue with that in the short term in addition to this deal.

The key is obviously the placing price for now, and we will have to wait and see what they can raise at. It’s relatively low cost once you consider the Norwegian tax rebate.

I’m hoping this is the first of several deals rather than the only one on the horizon, but I guess more will come out regarding the ongoing strategy in due course.

I can see the attraction of the tax rebate. The post-tax cost to Longboat of the carry element of the transaction is approximately $7.8 million ($35 million pre-tax). So a refund of $27.2million.

I’m hoping this is the first of a number of deals rather than the only one we see for the foreseeable.

Yes hard to comment on it at the moment. Need to see the admission document and the placing price to start with.

Was hoping for production as part of the first deal but let’s wait for more info and see what they have to say.

robs12, without wanting you to say anything you don’t want to, have you heard anything with regards to a deal with LBE or are you making some calculated guesses? Thanks.

Despite my frustration there is something I quite admire about their nonchalance! Also it’s actually quite rare on AIM to have directors who don’t ramp their own company and provide teasers of info to private investors. No news today as I had come to expect and they will let the 18 month deadline pass without comment. I think they have a quiet confidence - I just hope it is well placed!

Agree with all of that Mozza and I suspect many of us are thinking the same.

I really thought we’d have seen a deal by now. I’m bored and frustrated waiting but there is a part of me that thinks they will be able to deliver serious shareholder value so I continue to hold and be patient.

They did use those words but I’m not convinced they will act on them. I got the impression that the message was: sorry but you’re going to have to continue being patient but we understand your frustration.

Well I got a response to my reply requesting a more comprehensive update.

Essentially they said that they understand the frustration and the need for more information, and thanked me for my patience.

Reading between the lines of both replies, they are saying that they understand it's frustrating but more patience is required. I don't think we will hear anything until they have something concrete to announce so I'm not expecting anything tomorrow but you never know.