Member Info for pauldrayton

I don’t think Godders thinks the award will be that high though Much. He thinks sunk costs but not lost profits if I recall correctly, so around £30m, which would probably result in no share price movement at all.

He might be right, although I hope it’s much higher of course.

ICSID have now missed their own timeline which they stated in March and repeated only a few weeks ago - it’s staggering but strangely not unexpected.

There isn’t a lot else to talk about at the moment! First spud in a few weeks, and results 4 weeks after that (end of September).

I wonder if all those large trades cleared out a big seller yesterday then.

Plus a final trade of 334,592. Busy day!

7 of them now!

5 x 50k trades this afternoon. Somebody taking a position maybe, but it didn’t budge the price in either direction.

My fear is the market often gets it right. Perhaps the payout won’t come, or won’t be as big as hoped. I don’t know, I’m just wary because AIM investing often has a way of kicking you when you least expect it. I’m obviously still hopeful of a very positive outcome but taking nothing for granted until an announcement is made.

Can you repost as the link seems to be gone?!

I checked with RKH and as of this morning they hadn’t heard anything.

I’m hopeful of something this week but you just never know with ICSID. I think they would have informed the parties if there was going to be a significant delay to the timeline they’ve stated & repeated.

Why do you think we will get an update regarding a delay? I seriously doubt that. The next news we will hear will be the outcome IMO.

Nice one thanks - as you say nothing new but probably just printed in anticipation of an outcome being known fairly soon.

Anyone able to read the full article?

Given the last update was on 2nd July, you would have thought there wasn’t much work left to complete at that stage. They might be out by a matter of days but it shouldn’t be weeks on that timescale. If there is no update tomorrow I doubt RKH will chase - they will simply wait for the tribunal now. Even with it being ICSID, I can’t see it being more than a week late personally. Famous last words!

Incorrect. The update in March stated that the tribunal expected to be in a position to issue the award during the course of July. The July update was a bit more vague and stated that they expected to complete their work in July but I think it’s a fair assumption to think that means issuing the award in July (after all, their work is not complete until the award is issued).

Also the arbitrators are not Italian, the defendants are Italian.

Only ICSID could communicate twice that they would be in a position to issue an award in July and then leave it until the last two days! I won’t hold my breath for this week.

Yes SecretBluePrint - exactly what I’m trying to say. I just don’t see how they could make a due diligence argument against Rockhopper and I don’t see how any award could be reduced/mitigated on that basis. The award should be decided as if it was still MOG as owner - anything else makes no sense to me.

I’m not sure I understand how Rockhopper can be held responsible for lack of due diligence (for the purpose of this case I mean).

Are you suggesting that if MOG still existed and Rockhopper hadn’t bought them, that they would have a stronger case for damages?

That doesn’t make much sense to me. Surely when Rockhopper acquired MOG, they acquired all of their assets and also exactly the same rights to compensation should any of those assets be compromised like Ombrina Mare.

Or am I missing something?

I agree Ash. One of the most promising parts of the RNS for me was the comment about the increasing number of opportunities they are seeing. Let’s hope they are able to convert something on favourable terms.

Looks like it’s heading to Black Vulture first, so Egyptian Vulture should be after that.

Has it finished at Tiger Lily then?

I can’t see any news on how that went.