Member Info for pauldrayton

Agreed, although I’m guessing another large holder or two have sold to him as these must have been off market transactions. Certainly the large trades printed after hours for hundreds of thousands at the mid price. So they’ve probably gained one large holder and lost one or two which is fine. I doubt the big holders will want to trade each well result like PIs - it would be interesting to know how many are now held by private investors. Longboat is unusual on AIM as it’s mainly institutions holding, and it’s therefore more difficult to predict how the share price might react on either a success or failure.

Interesting times - the next 4-8 months will define the future of the company.

Well he’s no mug, and from today’s volume it looks like he may have picked up some more but we will have to wait and see. I’ve always had a lot of time for Baillie Gifford in general.

On the operational front it looks to me like Rodhette may now be the first well to spud as VAR have booked the anchor handlers and there is still no sign of movement for West Hercules.

Presume it’s the ex Baillie Gifford Richard Sneller. Very interesting and he must have deep pockets!

New major shareholder at 4.3%.

Only 5 weeks late now with no explanation.

Another couple of large trades reported late, and again they didn't move the price.

I'm guessing it's a transfer from one large holder to another.

Confirmed rig move: "Prelay Scarabeo 8" - starting work on 6th September, so mid September for the Rodhette spud still appears to be on track.

KL Saltfjord has been contracted by VAR Energy for Scarabeo 8 for the next 16 days which I suspect will include the rig move to Rodhette:

https://www.hagland.com/rg-hagland-shipbrokers/offshore/spotlist/?page=fixtures

Still no sign of West Hercules moving to Egyptian Vulture.

I guess they would have been off market transfers so both buys & sells because there’s no way the market makers would have accepted those volumes.

I think Black Vulture is taking a bit longer than they expected and as I suggested maybe West Hercules had been earmarked for Kveikje after Ginny/Hermine so the knock-on effect is that Kveikje has been pushed into Q1 2022.

No sign of movement at Black Vulture (West Hercules) or Goliat (Scarabeo 8) yet.

It will happen when it happens - I’m working on 5 drills over the next 6 months, which is still very busy!

As far as I can see, West Hercules will drill Egyptian Vulture and then move on to Ginny/Hermine.

Meanwhile Scarabeo 8 has been booked for Rodhette and Maersk Integrator has been booked for Mugnetind.

Not sure about Kveikje - maybe Equinor have earmarked West Hercules for that as well.

5 wells to spud before year end, so whilst it would be disappointing if the first well fails, there are more to come in quick succession. Just hope they get success at a few of them!

Well it doesn’t look as though Egyptian Vulture will spud in August now - spending longer at Black Vulture than they anticipated maybe. Rodhette is scheduled for mid-September and I personally wouldn’t mind if EV spuds at a similar time.

As to what the share price could be on a failure of the first well, it’s hard to say because I think this is a share price driven by institutions rather than private investors which is unusual for AIM. Having said that AIM always overreacts so 50-60p is possible/probable. It depends whether the institutions have the appetite to buy more in that scenario.

Anyway let’s hope all the wells are successful ;-)!

I have some Petrotal. The risk there is mainly political and social. Their production has been stopped in the past by armed local militia and there is a bit of uncertainty following the recent elections. Lots of potential and growing production but Canada is probably safer than Peru.

I thought it was a ridiculous suggestion to begin with but I’m now beginning to subscribe to the idea that the delay might be due to the August summer holidays. I would have expected them to provide an update either way out of common courtesy but that doesn’t seem to be the way they work.

Perhaps September will bring news of some kind, but again I won’t hold my breath.

Or here:

https://www.hagland.com/rg-hagland-shipbrokers/offshore/spotlist/

Keep an eye on the Spot Requirements.

Thanks icemax. You should see the AHTS vessels booked here once they are ready to move:

https://offshore.clarksons.com/

No sign of it as yet.

Looks to me like the West Hercules is still over Black Vulture so it hasn’t moved to Egyptian Vulture yet.

The most concerning thing is that the panel have not even declared the proceedings closed, and theoretically they have another 3 months after the closure of proceedings to render the award.

On 24th December they stated: "Deliberations have continued and work on the award is advancing. The Tribunal will revert to the Parties in the early part of 2021 with any final questions it might have or, if none, the declaration of the closure of the proceedings as per ICSID Arbitration Rule 38(1)."

That never happened, so even though they've said since that the deliberations & drafting process had advanced very considerably and that they would provide regular updates to both parties, before stating twice that their work should come to an end and the award rendered during the course of July, they are under no obligation at all to do so because the proceedings haven't even officially closed yet.

So they can still take as long as they like. It's absurd given what they said in December, but the company has no control over this at all - it's simply a waiting game.

Their lawyers have not received a response from the panel.

He doesn’t mean they haven’t received a response from their own solicitors!