Member Info for pauldrayton

2pm today.

Register online to attend and/or submit questions.

I get the feeling Rockhopper know the outcome.

Not sure which way it will go, but I think they know.

Perhaps the Harbour decision prompted them to contact the Italians and settle? Or maybe the tribunal have been in touch.

I have no idea but my guess is we will find out this month.

Currently waiting on weather for the Maersk Integrator rig move to Mugnetind then.

Also for anybody who does not know - there is an Investor Meet presentation at 2pm on Friday (24th September). Even if you don’t attend at the time you can register in advance and submit questions.

Savv, I doubled checked and the first 3 well estimates are as follows:

Rodhette: 46 days
Egyptian Vulture: 39 days
Mugnetind: 46 days

I think these figures will be the total time anticipated including P&A, with contingencies built in as well.

So the results of the first 3 wells could/should arrive towards the end of October/beginning of November. Although nothing is ever certain!

These were my calculations based on the assumption of $4/boe – they mentioned earlier in the year that most of the recent transactions have been in excess of that, and it will differ depending on oil/gas and proximity to infrastructure etc but let’s use it as a yardstick.

These figures are based on their best estimates, but obviously until each well is drilled we have no idea whether they will come up dry, low case, best case or high case. So this is purely theoretical at this stage:

Rodhette: 41mmboe (8.2mmboe net to LBE). Total potential value to LBE = $32.8m = £22.96m = 40.5p per share.

Eqyptian Vulture: 103mmboe (15.45mmboe net to LBE). Total potential value to LBE = $61.8m = £43.26m = 76.3p per share.

Mugnetind: 24mmboe (4.8mmboe net to LBE). Total potential value to LBE = $19.2m = £13.44m = 23.7p per share.

Ginny: 41mmboe (3.69mmboe net to LBE). Total potential value to LBE = $14.76m = £10.33m = 18.2p per share.

Hermine: 27mmboe (2.43mmboe net to LBE). Total potential value to LBE = $9.72m = £6.08m = 12p per share.

Kveikje: 36mmboe (3.6mmboe net to LBE). Total potential value to LBE = $14.4m = £10.08m = 17.8p per share.

Cambozola: 159mmboe (39.75mmboe net to LBE). Total potential value to LBE = $159m = £111.3m = 196p per share.

Copernicus: 254mmboe (25.4mmboe net to LBE). Total potential value to LBE = $101.6m = £71.12m = 125p per share.

So the 4 wells this side of Christmas (5 prospects including Ginny & Hermine) 'could' add 170.7p worth of value on a best estimate basis. There are low cases and high cases, and there is potential for follow-on prospectivity if any of the wells are successful, so this is purely a guide at this stage. I suspect if 3 or 4 of the wells are successful then the share price could overshoot to the upside on excitement, and equally 3 or 4 disappointing wells will not be appreciated by the market!

The total number of estimated drilling days for each well are in the Admission document so you can check them all on the website. Most are around 6-8 weeks but that includes P&A plus contingencies, so the well results should be known a bit sooner (more like 4-6 weeks but every well is different and there can be delays for any number of reasons so it’s not set in stone).

West Hercules is currently on its way to Egyptian Vulture, arriving this evening.

The Maersk Integrator anchor handlers are booked to start work tomorrow/Monday so I would expect both Egyptian Vulture & Mugnetind to spud this week. Probably two spud notifications by Wednesday/Thursday all being well.

All as we were informed last week but it’s good to see it’s going to plan.

Longboat will then well & truly be underway.

Much, it’s interesting that Rockhopper commented at all. I don’t think they have done before - they’ve always refused prior requests. Not sure why they decided to respond this time.

AkerBP are now in the process of booking anchor handlers so that Maersk Integrator can move to Mugnetind next week so it looks like that's going to be the next well to spud.

Yes, as expected - first well spud with another two to follow shortly. So in a couple of weeks they will be drilling 3 wells simultaneously.

Another managerial appointment with Hilde Salthe joining too. They clearly have big plans to require all these employees so let’s hope they can pull them off, including some success in the initial wells. It would be nice to get off to a good start and set the tone!

Clearly got too much time on my hands Mozza!

Scarabeo 8 has now arrived at Rodhette so they will lay anchors and I suspect we will get a spud RNS within the next 24-48 hours.

Still no sign of movement of West Hercules to Egyptian Vulture so we may also get an update on the situation there too.

Rockhopper have no idea why it has been delayed. They have had no communication from the tribunal since early July so they know as much as us - nothing.

They also state that “DNO’s 2021 Norwegian exploration and appraisal program continues with the ongoing drilling of the Gomez prospect and the Black Vulture appraisal well”.

The Black Vulture appraisal well is obviously taking much longer than anticipated so it could be that both Rodhette & Mugnetind spud before Egyptian Vulture now.

I suspect there will be an Operations Update once the first well spuds anyway, but it looks at the moment like it should be at least 2 wells this month - possibly 3 depending on how long the Black Vulture delay is.

https://www.dno.no/en/investors/announcements/dno-scores-bergknapp-upgrade/

“The Mugnetind exploration well (DNO 32 percent) will spud in September”

Sorry Mogger I missed your reply to me before.

Thanks and in your opinion is this likely to impact Rockhopper's case?

The ICSID tribunal have already made a ruling on jurisdiction in Rockhopper's case - Italy made the argument but lost.

I wouldn't have thought they are likely to change their minds at this stage regardless of what the CJEU rule, and particularly in this instance where the comments regarding intra-EU ECT disputes are just that - comments, not a ruling.

The CJEU also have no jurisdiction outside of the EU, so if Rockhopper were to win the case then it could be enforced outside of the EU regardless.

That's my understanding anyway, although this delay is somewhat disconcerting!

I've read it several times and I'm still not sure if I understand the implications (if any) for Rockhopper!

At least RKH sold their UOG shares.

For any other sad ship watchers, keep an eye on KL Saltfjord & Njord Viking over the next week. Both are heading up to Scarabeo 8 for the rig move to Rodhette - Njord Viking is already making its way up the coast. Rodhette is only a short distance from Goliat so the move itself shouldn’t take long. In fact Njord Viking is off hire on 17th September so it should all be complete by then & Longboat’s first well spud.