Member Info for pauldrayton

Let’s be positive and assume that Rockhopper and Navitas can come up with a funding solution for Sea Lion by the end of 2022.

How much do Rockhopper need to be awarded (net) to cover the Italian decommissioning and working capital etc required to get to first oil without needing an equity raise?

Let’s also assume they get paid either willingly or by force within a reasonable timeframe.

Sam Moody has replied to say they cited Vattenfall in 2019.

Doesn’t sound like they are doing so again but the lawyers are aware of it and the tribunal should be as well.

Thanks SpaceHoppa - done.

It looks to me like Italy’s argument has already been thrown out regardless of what the CJEU say now.

I’m no lawyer but assuming the tribunal in the Ombrina Mare case are aware of the Vattenfall ruling you’d think it would be hard (maybe not impossible though) to rule in a different direction now.

I guess we can only wait and see.

I don’t see what the arbitration has to do with Moody or Rockhopper’s due diligence at all. It’s effectively MOG who are making the claim, just under the new ownership of Rockhopper (aka Rockhopper Italia). MOG’s rights surely do not change just because they were bought out.

Who knows how the tribunal will view it but I don’t see what Rockhopper’s due diligence has to do with the validity of the claim.

Whilst I appreciate this was a ruling prior to the ECJ’s recent comments on the ECT, I thought the comments made by the tribunal in the Vattenfall case were of relevance:

“Responsibility for defining the scope of the obligations established by the ECT lays with the treaty drafters, finds the tribunal: “It would have been a simple matter to draft the ECT so that Article 26 does not apply to disputes between an Investor of one EU Member State and another EU Member State as respondents. That was not done”. Additionally, the arbitrators do not recognise a conflict between Article 26 ECT and Articles 267 and 344 TFEU, but remark that even when applying a variety of conflict rules – lex posterior, modification of the ECT or lex specialis ­– EU law would not prevail over the ECT.”

https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/blogs/arbitrationlinks/2018/september/vattenfall-tribunal-maintains-jurisdiction-over-intra-eu-energy-charter-treaty-claim-against-germany

A few new recruits to the Longboat team have appeared on Linkedin (in addition to Hilde Salthe):

Alex Stuart as Senior Geologist
Berengere Savary Sismondini as Senior Geoscientist
Robert Pfau as Senior Geophysicist
Espen Rorvik as Senior Reservoir Engineer
Nina Irene Molvik Henriksen as Senior Accountant

Don’t forget PMO spent a couple of years fantasising about a £3bn TLP project to begin with. They really were an incompetent partner and with hindsight I suspect Sam et al would have gone with the lower offer at the time.

Using $4/boe, I work out Egyptian Vulture to be worth 76.3p if they were to prove up the gross mean case of 103mmboe, although there is potential upside to 208mmboe which would make it worth over 150p to Longboat.

So it’s a very big well! The biggest of the initial 3. All we can do is wait and hope now.

Thank you - that final link works!

Interesting stuff, we just have to hope that some of these prospects come off now.

I confess I'm struggling with that link!

Richard Sneller still buying then - holding over 5% now.

Perhaps, and I think Ovets has already made this point, the ICSID have deliberately waited for this and have encouraged Italy to seek its admission just so they can use the Rockhopper case to rule against the ECJ.

Whatever they decide now sets a massive precedent for them and the future use of ICSID.

You would think that if this issue was likely to be a total game changer that could wipe out Rockhopper’s case, then the panel would give them more than a week or two to respond? Especially given the costs involved for the arbitration funders and the fact that this process has taken years.

I would guess the tribunal have already made up their minds on the issue.

But then what do I know?

Looks like they are struggling at the moment to find a weather window for the rig move to Mugnetind. Atlantic Kestrel & Atlantic Merlin spent about 48 hours circling but have now returned to Montrose.

Looks from the forecast like there ‘may’ be a window next week but I’m surprised they didn’t make the move yesterday evening because it looked like the best opportunity. So the wait continues on that one.

I asked Rockhopper about this at the time of the judgement in early September. At the time their lawyers replied as follows:

…………..

This might possibly have been a case our panel was waiting for, although if so it’s somewhat difficult to understand given we already had our ruling on jurisdiction back in 2019. The outcome really should have no impact on us and in fact comments made in this judgement on the matter of intra EU ECT disputes are really not much more than a “side comment”.

…………….

Italy are trying their luck but hopefully the tribunal will side with Rockhopper. If they do then it’s probably better that it was considered by the panel and a ruling incorporated into an award.

There is obviously a risk that the panel side with Italy in which case the arbitration would be dead, but it’s hard to see them accepting they no longer have any jurisdiction having previously ruled otherwise.

I’m no lawyer though.

I remember videodawn saying in 2011/2012 prior to the Premier Oil farmout that Rockhopper should borrow the money to pursue a small initial development, at which point the financial markets would have probably have been supportive.

Now we are back to that position after 10 wasted years. They have been working on smaller, lower cost developments for some time though - I remember Sam saying they were going to put several different options to Harbour back in December last year, and the Premier technical team were working with them.

I guess we might find out what those plans look like and what they might cost tomorrow.

But most importantly we need to know what’s happening with Ombrina Mare really.

I’m a bit surprised it was dry actually because it was an appraisal well that took about 3-4 weeks longer than expected. Let’s hope it’s better luck at Egyptian Vulture.

You are correct Savv, Black Vulture is not related to Longboat Energy. That is the well that Equinor drilled prior to moving to Egyptian Vulture (which is the one Longboat hold an interest in and is being drilled now).

I emailed the company about Ombrina Mare last week. In the past they’ve said they haven’t heard anything but this time they said they hope to be able to provide an update in the interims and at the investor meeting.

I’m not entirely sure what this means but I think we may find out something this week, even if it’s just news on further delays!

Wasn’t even a shareholder who asked the question!

If you want an AIM stock whose CEO pumps the share price for other people’s gain then there are plenty to choose from!