Member Info for pauldrayton

It would be a shame if it was somebody in the know selling. They could be in the zone now so who knows. I really feel like they need a strong commercial discovery at either Egyptian Vulture or Mugnetind now though.

Sometimes maybe but that’s not always the case - Equinor’s Black Vulture well before this one overran by 3-4 weeks and was dry.

A very long drill can also sometimes be a sign they’ve had downhole/formation problems.

I think we just have to wait for the results to be honest.

Yes it’s a bit odd because different timescales have been provided for Egyptian Vulture.

In a previous press release it was quoted as 4 weeks to drill. However the permit application says 39 days (5.5 weeks) and so did the Longboat Admission document. They then said up to 7 weeks in the spud RNS.

4 weeks have now passed so I guess results could come at any time but perhaps more likely in a week or two because I would have thought the estimates included some contingency for delays. Having said that, they could have delays so we will just have to wait and see!

I think Pierre Jungels was to blame for that - it was him who was so excited about Monte Grosso, and at the time that was the basis for the MOG acquisition.

A bit of additional info on the well here for anybody who is interested. The well design has an extra section compared with Rodhette as it’s deeper so I’d expect it to take a bit longer, and there could of course be delays, but if all goes to plan then we should hear this month.

https://hoering.miljodirektoratet.no/LastNedVedlegg/15161

Yes those figures that Longboat provided in the Admission Document probably encompass the entire operation from the rig getting on site to the rig leaving, and also include a lot of contingency.

As icemax says, Equinor have estimated 4 weeks for the drill itself at Egyptian Vulture so I suspect we should get results towards the end of this month.

Looked to me like they were indicating a potential tie-in with Tornerose to the Goliat infrastructure.

Nice to see a discovery but a little disappointing that it’s smaller than anticipated. Clearly not a company maker but the new proposed tax changes are helpful for development projects - with oil at over $80/bbl, 10mmboe might be doable with infrastructure nearby and large tax rebates.

We will see - after the first few well results we might hear a bit more from Helge in terms of the possibilities and plans.

Rig arrived on location this morning. Outside chance of a spud RNS before the weekend but otherwise Monday.

Suspect Rodhette & Egyptian Vulture results are only 2-4 weeks away now depending on how they get on.

From 2019:

June 18, 2019
The Respondent files a request for the Tribunal to suspend the proceeding.

June 24, 2019
The Claimants file observations on the Respondent’s request of June 18, 2019.

June 26, 2019
The Tribunal issues a decision on jurisdiction and on the Respondent’s request of June 18, 2019.

——————————-

2 days to issue a judgement on jurisdiction after Rockhopper’s response.

As the rest of the work was supposed to be complete in July, and the tribunal were probably anticipating/waiting for this admission from Italy, they should be well prepared to respond and issue the award.

Who knows which way it will go but now both parties have submitted their responses it could be days or weeks now rather than months.

Rockhopper will very soon either be dead & buried or have a lifeline.

True although in that instance Rockhopper would have to bear the burden of any settlement - the lawyers will want full payment based on the total award (if there is one).

Yes I would agree. If there is a settlement offer then RKH would need to insist on the money being in the bank, not to be paid at a future date.

The tribunal should have completed all their other work by the end of July so this could now be the one remaining issue they were waiting on. If so it will be interesting to see how long they take to assess it and provide their view. In 2019 it was only a few days between Italy requesting that the proceedings be suspended and the decision on jurisdiction, although they may have been considering the question of jurisdiction in the months beforehand. Do the ECJ’s recent comments change anything? If not then it could be a very swift response again from the tribunal.

The Falkland Islands legislative assembly was dissolved on 24th September, with elections to take place on 4th November.

So the FIG are unlikely to be in a position to approve anything until after that, but hopefully an agreement can be made between all parties before the end of the year.

A positive OM outcome beforehand would be most welcome!

An appraisal well was drilled & tested with flow rates around 900bbls/day & 1200bbls/day with gas injection. That well was completed as a producer and a field development plan was then submitted for 40million 2P oil & 6.5BCF 2P gas.

I’m taking nothing for granted - who knows how the tribunal will view it, but they were quite advanced with the project.

I still don’t understand why due diligence from Rockhopper has anything to do with the claim at all.

Even if they bought MOG and Ombrina Mare AFTER the Italians had changed the law, they would surely still inherit MOG’s right to claim.

I can’t see how this has anything to do with Rockhopper’s due diligence, it’s about MOG’s history with the license. Surely Rockhopper have the right to claim on the same basis as if MOG were still in existence. I can’t see how it can be argued in any other way personally, but again I’m not a lawyer or an arbitrator!

The Italian government approved the Ombrina Mare EIA in August 2015:

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/rockhopperexploration2/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=441&newsid=554322

The law was then changed on 1st January 2016.

Some fair points by Kluwers but they seem to have ignored/missed the 2012 ruling:

https://news.yahoo.com/mediterraneanoil-italian-offshore-drilling-law-070400510.html

They have found a weather window and Maersk Integrator is now on its way to Mugnetind.

Spud RNS next Monday I would guess.

Thanks SecretBluePrint - that makes sense as I think it was ERC who were commissioned to do the Ombrina Mare CPR.

https://www.erce.energy/our-team/board/

Whilst I’m sure Italy would defend every part of the claim, it does appear that they have engaged on the question of quantum and there was some argument over the Ombrina Mare reserves which would relate to lost profits. The Italians requested access to the data room and Rockhopper used an expert witness:

“the Claimants submitted Mr. David Wilson's Rebuttal Expert Report to the Respondent's report on the Ombrina Mare reserves together with supporting documents”.

Not sure who David Wilson is but MOG commissioned a CPR which would have presumably formed part of the supporting documents.

Thanks cyan. $50m net to Rockhopper probably requires an award in the region of $80-90m total.

So they are going to need to win (of course), and win an element of lost profits as well as back costs.

Let’s see what happens. Hopefully the tribunal has finished all its other work and now only needs to respond to this latest admission.