Member Info for pauldrayton

Yes cyan I’m inclined to agree that gas is unlikely to be developed in the NFB in the short term at least. You never know in the future though.

It’s certainly not a priority for now.

Johnson. Could be a significant gas resource at some point but let’s get Sea Lion up & running first!

Plenty of gas as well as oil in the NFB & SFB - a huge province with loads of potential if they can get it started. Hopefully Sea Lion will be the key that unlocks it.

Well spotted Mozza, shouldn’t take long to get there so I suspect there will be a spud RNS this week. Let’s hope for some better luck with Longboat in 2022.

Well let’s hope so wraith, and let’s hope it’s a substantial award if they do win - I agree there doesn’t seem to be any logic to a long wait from here.

Merry Christmas!

wraith, the only reason I can think of is if the tribunal actively wanted to use this case to deal with the ECJ ruling and set a precedent.

I certainly hope that Rockhopper have won and will get a substantial award - my only point was the time taken and the jurisdiction ruling don’t necessarily mean they will.

With regards to the timescale in the Ombrina Mare case, I’m not sure we can read too much into the length of it.

The Eskosol (ECT) case took 5 years and the tribunal eventually ruled in Italy’s favour, even though they ruled against them on jurisdiction earlier in the process. Let’s hope that the same thing doesn’t happen in Rockhopper’s case but just because it’s taken a long time and Italy have failed in their jurisdiction argument, it doesn’t necessarily mean Rockhopper have won judging by some of the other cases.

bridgedogg1,

Can you please point me in the direction of the ICSID awards that Italy are currently refusing to pay please?

I’d just like to do a bit of research on them and the current status to see how other parties are dealing with their refusal.

Thanks in advance.

I love the positivity here - having been bitten too many times on AIM I will have to wait for the official Ombrina Mare outcome RNS!

However, if they do win an award then rest assured they will be paid. The funders (Harbour) will be absolutely certain about that and the reason they’ve done it via ICSID is to provide themselves with that certainty. It is Harbour rather than the lawyers who will take the biggest cut in a success case. Harbour have already paid the lawyers for their work, although they could get a kicker as well depending on the outcome.

Yes it might take some time if they have to enforce, but enforce they will. And they will get paid. So as discussed yesterday Rockhopper may have to look at selling the debt or borrowing against it (Sam Moody seems to think there are options if successful), but Harbour have not financed this process just to watch Italy refuse to pay if they win. I’m sure work has already been done on preparing for enforcement if Italy attempt to delay.

But first Rockhopper need to get a positive award. I do agree that there doesn’t appear to be any reason for a delay now - the work was supposedly complete last summer and the only additional submission was on jurisdiction which has now been dealt with.

And me sadly!

Assuming Rockhopper get an award, the interest will keep building if Italy refuse to pay. It depends how difficult they want to be but surely they will realise they will have to pay up eventually. Rockhopper can enforce anywhere outside the EU, and Keith Lough will know a bit about that thanks to his involvement with Cairn.

Sam Moody has insinuated in his reply to my email that there may be “various funding options” if Rockhopper receive an award but have to enforce it. I take that as a positive in that they might not necessarily need an equity raise - I’m not sure what the other funding options might be but perhaps some kind of bridging finance whilst they await enforcement/payment.

I now believe the OM outcome could be transformational for Rockhopper. Get nothing and they need a fairly substantial equity raise which means dilution at a relatively low share price. Get a substantial award and they could potentially get to first oil without the need for any major dilution. I think Navitas will have a clear idea already of how they intend to finance the development so if that goes ahead and Rockhopper can get a substantial OM award then dare I say it the future might look quite rosey.

“Only” 15 pages from the tribunal according to Sam.

Sam Moody is saying they tried to negotiate with Italy earlier in the proceedings but they weren’t interested. They would rather lose and point the finger at others rather than face the embarrassment of settling.

So I guess we have to wait for the tribunal’s final decision and then hope to enforce it if positive.

Without wishing to be a party pooper, I would have expected the tribunal to throw out Italy’s argument regardless of the outcome of the case. It would have caused huge problems for them had they accepted the ECJ’s ruling so it’s not a great surprise.

Clearly it’s good news that it has been rejected and the issue of jurisdiction has now been resolved (for the second time) but it doesn’t ‘necessarily’ mean the tribunal will rule in their favour on other matters.

Hopefully they will though and it’s just a question of quantum now. I wonder if it might be in the interest of both parties to negotiate a settlement now, so that RKH get paid sooner and don’t have to raise equity? The lawyers will want their full cut though given the time it’s taken and work they’ve put in.

Good news that Italy’s request was rejected.

But I thought the rest of the work was supposed to have been completed in July.

So how much longer until an award is issued?!

It’s the ICSID tribunal rather than a court.

They don’t seem to do anything quickly that’s for sure. Last submissions went in at the beginning of October - their work was otherwise supposedly complete in July so the remaining issue is whether or not their opinion on jurisdiction has changed since their initial ruling.

How long they will take is anyone’s guess.

This will have already been agreed with FIG. It’s just a case of getting it all signed off - a formality. As Mogger pointed out, Navitas mention January so it’s as good as done. The sooner the better, and once a development plan is agreed they can start work on the financing although I’m sure Navitas already have something in mind on that front.

Sea Lion is looking much more promising - the nagging factor is Rockhopper’s financial position. Without a positive Ombrina Mare outcome (and payment) within 6 months, they will need an equity raise and clearly no long term shareholders want that. They really do need the ICSID tribunal to get on with it now - a smaller award paid quicker could actually work out better in the long term than a larger award that takes ages to enforce.

Sam Moody said in early 2021 that the Sea Lion project team had a range of development plans to show Harbour, including a much smaller, lower-cost option.

So with a bit of luck they might already have fairly advanced plans for this.

Meanwhile they continue their recruitment drive.

Gabriel Mynheer added as Group Economist; &

Ingelin Loklind Lunde as Senior Geologist

Let’s hope they know something we don’t as they keep adding to the headcount!

Looks like more of the same. Same people on the whole. I wouldn’t expect their stance on O&G to change.