Member Info for pauldrayton

Ok Emerald!

“Agreements signed for the acquisition of oil discoveries in the Falkland Islands and for the development of the Sea Lion project”

It's on the link Mogger posted some time ago but you might need to use a translate function!:

https://www.magna.isa.gov.il/details.aspx?id=013056&reference=2022-01-040482#?id=013056&reference=2022-01-040482

Thought I’d change the subject heading for those who haven’t seen the news yet!

Looks like the deal is as expected and outlined previously.

Yes it would appear that the Navitas deal has been signed and sealed.

Now for ICSID….

Yes it’s a high-pressure, high-temperature well. A deep target and not without its challenges.

Even if the Russia/Ukraine war ended tomorrow the after effects will be long lasting.

Energy security is at the forefront of the agenda now (at last - some of us have been screaming it for years but it took a war to open the eyes of politicians). They still don’t quite get the magnitude of the problem but they soon will, and Rockhopper may ‘finally’ have their time.

Let’s see.

I asked a question during the presentation about Blackrock but they chose not to answer it!

I thought the presentation was pretty pointless actually, it didn’t add much to the RNS.

Even so, I’m pretty confident that the current share price is supported by the EV & Kveikje discoveries now so the big two of Cambozola and Copernicus are a free throw of the dice for me at these levels.

Happy to hold and let the next two wells play out whatever happens.

I had Kveikje worth somewhere between 15p and 26p per share based on the $4 in the ground figure Longboat provided last spring.

28mmboe (2.8mmboe net to LBE) = $11.2m = £8.5m = 15p per share.

48mmboe (4.8mmboe net to LBE) = $19.2m = £14.6m = 25.7p per share.

With commodity prices as they are this could well be higher now. At $5 it would be worth 19-32p and so on.

Cambozola and Copernicus are lower CoS but both have the potential to catapult the share prices (multiples of where it stands now).

Yes same for me. Not appearing in the diary yet.

For once I’m looking forward to a Longboat presentation though.

That 3m sand in the Rokke formation is really interesting - shame they couldn’t wireline but I’d like to know whether there is a way they could share in any potential upside if they do trade this discovery now before further appraisal.

I somehow missed this RNS:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/LBE/kveikje-presentation-investor-webcast-8sx8kd07iova0m6.html

Should be an interesting watch.

Yes with Kveikje being oil and prices where they are at the moment, Longboat probably see this as an opportune time to trade it if possible.

It’s not like Egyptian Vulture which needs another couple of wells and a well test to appraise properly. The wireline & coring will give them pretty much all they need for the main Kveikje reservoir.

Probably some people relieved to get out now on news. Many have become despondent over time. Possibly some profit taking too from those who bought recently.

I think EV and Kveikje more than underpin the current share price but another discovery is probably needed to really see this move on from here (or an attractive asset swap).

https://longboatenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/PL293B-Kveikje-Rockn-Roll-Result-Presentation-050422.pdf

I suspect they will end up producing from the Roll discovery (3m sand with hydrocarbons in this well) - no wireline carried out on the deeper targets so not much value added at this stage but certainly potential.

It does sound like they have asset swaps in mind though for this.

That’s a very high quality reservoir and obviously commercial. Thank goodness really because Longboat needed that! The Rokke and N'Roll targets are potentially still in play, I’d definitely like to hear a bit more about them but the main thing is another proper discovery to add to Egyptian Vulture.

One more commercial discovery from either Cambozola or Copernicus and I think this exploration programme would be seen as a real success. They are both huge wells.

I don’t think the delay is anything to do with OM or any other partner joining. In fairness they are getting this done much quicker than many smaller deals so they were ambitious with their timeframe. They were always slightly up against it but I don’t expect this to take until the end of April. Before Easter would be my guess - I think they are very nearly there and there is an appetite on all sides to get it done.

Not concerned by a slight delay personally.

I just wish the tribunal would hurry up and make a decision. Nearly 12 weeks now since costs were submitted.

120k sold at 60p and bought at 62p?

Thanks Mogger. Good that they are continuing to support the idea of Sea Lion development. The only downside is that a “final Sea Lion FID is unlikely to occur in less than 12 months”.

I don’t think anybody expected this to be quick but that’s a bit disappointing.

Well I certainly hope you’re right Savv.

The company presentation was pretty downbeat about the M&A market at the moment and at least Helge has admitted with hindsight they should have done a production deal sooner even if it cost them more than they wanted but that’s not much help saying it now. We are entirely reliant on the exploration results to stop the rot.

Helge mentioned yesterday that they are close to the exploration targets. Let’s hope the selling pressure this morning isn’t an ominous sign - unfortunately it has been on previous results. I feel Longboat really need another ‘proper’ discovery in addition to Egyptian Vulture and there were high hopes for this Kveikje well.

End of the month is the end of next week.

Middle of the week most likely for news that the deal has been signed.

A huge step in the right direction for Rockhopper, but will there be an equity raise alongside it (or soon after)?

The OM tribunal is a disgrace for taking this long, whatever the outcome.