Member Info for pauldrayton

“ assuming they continue to hold the strong appetite from their inst investors”.

This is the key - let’s hope that is the case and they haven’t been scared off investing this year.

Yes absolutely if they would split them.

Y

Yes I’m not sure LBE will be able to compete with these:

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/9/22/bidders-line-up-for-exxon-s-uk-north-sea-oil-and-gas-assets

Have you heard something or just pontificating?

I would guess unlikely at this stage because LBE wants producing assets straight away.

Thanks, although Rockhopper are seeking double that I think? Discount that by 50% instead of 75% and you get to 20p per share which I think would be an excellent result. I hope for somewhere between 10 & 20p per share, but we are in the hands of ICSID! It could still be nothing for all I know.

Thanks fuddstone - so an average of $53/bbl over the past 6 years (including this one). If we use SBP’s $35 life of field costs (I thought it was lower but let’s be conservative) that’s $18/bbl profit for 20million barrels = $360million.

That’s my concern as well fuddstone. The Ombrina Mare outcome can’t come soon enough and let’s hope it’s a very positive one.

Agreed, Mexico really screwed PMO with Zama. After the bidding process late last year, PMO expected to have it sold by the spring which would have helped to pay down debt and for the BP assets. I don't think the new group will be too keen to put any more money into Mexico at the moment, and it's going to take some time to resolve before they can sell it.

PS. Whilst you’re here, the poster currently known as SBP was the finest poster on iii by a long long way. I used to love reading the stories, anecdotes & insights into the oil patch and life in general. Sometimes I’d get a bottle of wine & enjoy reading through your historic posts (sad I know!).

It would be great to meet one day and go through tales of the past. I can let you who I am then. The Forest of Dean is a bit far for me but maybe when you’re down in Cumbria.

If you’re interested my mail is my username at the U.K. hot mail address. We did connect a long time ago with Enola Gay but I’m not sure if you use that anymore.

Thanks, I guess we will have to see what comes out in the wash. Like you I see it as a small bonus rather than anything else, but every little helps nowadays!

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID

This was 2009 though.

Correct me if I’m wrong SBP but the Edison note I read stated $8/bbl CAPEX to first oil plus $7/bbl OPEX, which would make a big difference to your calculations.

Also without checking or wanting to split hairs the average oil price over the past 3 years must have been over $50?

When Craig David starts posting we will know the time has come.

I appreciate all views including munch & daveri007 (who I’m sure wasn’t trying to mislead anyone).

Let’s see what tomorrow brings!

As the Ombrina Mare case seems to drag on, I decided to contact ICSID. Not regarding Rockhopper or Ombrina Mare in particular (they would never comment on an individual case anyway) but just on their timescales because when I asked them earlier in the year, they stated that they were all able to continue working remotely. They told me specifically, and I quote:

"ICSID has not experienced delays with the rendering of awards. Note that the award must be signed within 120 days of the proceeding being declared closed (Arbitration Rule 38 and 40) - rather than from the final hearing".

I find this interesting because if they are being truthful and there has been no delay in the rendering of awards, and I'm sure Rockhopper wouldn't outright lie in an RNS, perhaps the delay was in the proceeding being declared closed rather than with the award itself.

If so, would I be right in thinking that an award would not be being worked on until the proceeding has been declared closed? If I'm correct, RKH stated on 15th September that "feedback from the Tribunal has indicated that work continues on the award". Rockhopper also state that they got that update in August, so can we assume that the proceedings had been declared closed by the end of August at the latest?

If so, then the award (outcome) should be declared by the end of this year at the very latest.

Hope that makes sense!

I thought from this morning’s action that something was stirring but it’s all gone a bit quiet now.

Those BP assets would be a good bet. The transition to PMO ownership started in January so they must be in a bit of limbo now. Could be a good opportunity to snap them up but they will only have recently become available again so negotiations would only be starting now if they did want them.

£10?! ;-)

That would be nice munch! Couple of sells just pulled it back but let’s hope the momentum keeps going and there is substance behind it.

Either a background buyer or some rumours I would guess. Not huge volume at the moment so staying calm for now!

Bid & Ask suddenly jumped up.

Sometimes that first trade gives an indicator of where it’s heading that day. Let’s hope that’s the case today!