Member Info for pauldrayton

Wider strategies at play there though too, and the deal is more than just production.

Let’s see what deal LBE can do.

"it's always a year away
Always"

Made me chuckle. Very true Godders. I've lost count of the number of times this has been said. Every year since 2015?

Now imagine securing those Suncor assets with a large proportion of debt.

I like the way their incentive structure works because they gain from a share price increase, and will therefore want to keep equity dilution to a minimum.

Exciting times (I think!).

Absolutely agree with these posts. The other thing they seem to be highlighting in the presentation is the value they can bring to an asset and the other partners and vendors, and how important that is:

“Aligned partnerships with ability to influence and optimise operations – increasingly important to vendors”.

“Strength and quality of relationships establishes Longboat as a trusted partner”.

“Leverage operational and subsurface expertise to identify and extract incremental value”.

Their involvement is worth a lot more than just an investment vehicle, and they will ultimately add value to the assets.

ICSID have a funny understanding of “early”.

It certainly feels like we are entering the window for a deal now. I’m sure they will want to get something over the line before having to request a shareholder extension at the end of May. They are already involved in a number of processes so I suspect they will hope at least one of those will come to a successful conclusion in the next 2-6 weeks.

I think this period has given them a chance to eye up a number of assets so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few deals done this year. Whether the first one is for 5-6k barrels or 10-12k barrels I don’t think it really matters, as long as it’s the right deal to build from. They know what they want and now is their window to get it - reading between the lines it sounds like activity is really starting to ramp up now.

Good spot WS. Well worth a read with a bit more info than the Results RNS.

They talk again of other companies wanting to rationalise portfolios to reduce G&A and staffing levels, together with their ability to absorb personnel. It certainly sounds like they are trying to secure production as well as some bolt on exploration, appraisal & development.

Some positive statements in there:

"Tax structure allows for greater debt financing of capital investment by new entrants such as Longboat".

"Pursuing value accretive acquisitions opportunities with significant upside".

Certainly feels like the wheels are in motion now and with a bit of luck it should be a much busier year for them.

Maybe, but that discounts the value of the management's knowledge & expertise, their industry connections, their historic relationship with institutional backers and the due diligence they've done to date.

There seemed to be a bit more interest today although we've seen that before only for it to fade away. There is low liquidity though so who knows where the share price could go if the market senses that a deal is getting close.

Mozza it makes a lot of sense to me that when they launched Longboat 16 months ago they were perhaps aware of some upcoming divestments/asset sales that they felt they could make a successful business out of - assets they knew and were familiar with from their previous experience with Faroe.

They were perhaps expecting those sales processes to proceed last year (hence getting their ducks in a row with the formation of Longboat) but the Covid pandemic put a stop to it.

They may well have even earmarked a certain deal/asset that they wanted to be the ‘first’ for Longboat and the foundation from which they would build, and the pandemic just threw a spanner in the works. People talk about Andrew Austin doing a deal with KIST within 3 months but I’m sure he had that Tulip deal lined up before they even launched. Had that not gone ahead and a global pandemic hit within a few months of them launching it could have been a different story.

When Longboat’s prospective deal(s) got delayed it left them frustrated and back to square one in a market where M&A was generally on hold and that’s where they have been stuck for a year.

It’s easy to criticise but when the delays are out of your hands and the rest of the market seizes up there is probably little they could do without ditching their strategy. In a way it shows confidence that they were willing to wait and hopefully it can now come to fruition in the way they initially envisaged. Also with a bit of luck they will have spent the interim assessing other potential opportunities so they’re in a position to build quickly once they get going.

All conjecture of course but it does make sense to me at least!

Yes thanks for that Mozza - good thinking and maybe it’s the subtleties in the comments which reveal the most. I didn’t think they’d be able to give much away but your thoughts make a lot of sense and tie in well with what’s being insinuated in the results. Here’s hoping anyway, and it’s interesting that they’re involved in current processes and potentially more soon. You’d like to think some of those would come to a conclusion within the next 4-8 weeks, and I’m sure LBE have done their due diligence already.

Exactly what I expected to read.

Sounds like they are keen to get a few deals done.

Frustrating wait but hopefully it will be worth it in the end.

I’m expecting very little tomorrow. Probably a general overview of the M&A market as you say and hopefully a positive outlook but no specifics. Be nice to hear from them nevertheless.

Nice return that daveri, congratulations.

Let’s hope LBE can help it to grow even further.

I personally think daveri is genuine. He’s made enough over at Greatland Gold by the look of things to worry about ramping anything else.

Maybe his source was wrong or maybe the deal fell through but I don’t think he was deliberately misleading anybody.

Annoyingly I actually topped up at 120p following his posts having previously had an average in the 70s but that was my choice and my risk, I don’t blame anybody by myself.

Still pretty hopeful here though regardless, the management are very good even though they’ve taken ages!

At least we know there will be some news of sorts next week (at long last). I'm not personally expecting anything too exciting in the Results. I think it will be the standard "frustrating period but making progress on numerous fronts" type announcement with very little concrete information to hang your hat on.

Oil taking a beating today which might have an impact tomorrow.

Cheers Doc, any discussion re: Serenity/North Sea?

Probably not enough volume to suggest any kind of good news leak but nice to see the share price heading upwards regardless!

How can you subcribe on Primary Bid without knowing how much you're paying?

What's the placing price?