Member Info for pauldrayton

Thanks Rovers - it’s always useful to get the input of somebody in the exact work arena. It corroborates what I was thinking but you make a valid point about how the industry & workspace has changed since the start of Covid. A lot of teams have been downsized & recruitment put on hold (including at Suncor U.K. & Suncor Norge), so they may be able to hire people quicker (and possibly cheaper) than usual. I still think it’s unlikely they would take on 3 permanent senior salaries though if they didn’t have a deal lined up.

icemax I hate to give advice on here and as you know most people who post here are invested so are likely to be bullish. I agree with Whirlaw though, it’s a good management team and I like the fact that they have been patient - as frustrating as it has been! I’m pretty hopeful they will get something over the line and it all depends on the quality of that first deal. Their incentive structure kicks in at £2 so you’d think they would want to minimise dilution at lower prices and might have a target of something in the region of £3-5. I obviously hope for even higher(!) but nothing is guaranteed. Good luck.

Is there a facility online to view historic trades? Rather than just the previous day or whatever shows on here?

As you say it could well be more than one person/party but it would be interesting to know how many have gone through in recent weeks.

I must be bored!!

What I don't like about Primary Bid is that it doesn't favour existing shareholders, it's open to anybody. I would prefer an Open Offer if anything although I realise it takes longer and is probably more costly.

Fair point re: share price movement Whirlaw and I suspect you’re probably right.

Meanwhile (intriguingly) there does seem to be somebody willing to patiently pick up 25k chunks at above the ask. 2 more went through today but it’s been happening sporadically for a few weeks now.

Maybe Whirlaw, but aren’t we back to question of whether they would need to hire 3 senior members of staff in order to analyse & bid on licenses?

That would seem a bit premature to me, and they could use contractors until they’ve secured something. Not only would they be adding significant cost to their monthly cash burn, but there would be no guarantee of success either.

And as somebody else pointed out, which senior geologist/geoscientist/reservoir engineer would want to join a shell with no assets? They could be out of a job in no time for a start.

My guess is they’ve agreed a deal but are now getting the legal and financial work done behind the scenes and are recruiting in preparation for that deal (or deals) being done.

The job application deadline is 21st April and I think they will want to explain their exact plans to applicants (if they want to secure good ones). That’s why I think we should see news next week or the week after, but I have to admit there is nothing happening in the market to back up that view. Very little appetite to buy shares for a number of days now, so I could be wrong but only time will tell.

Wonder if daveri has a theory on why there was no RNS on Tuesday...

She is indeed Mozza. I’m just pontificating that given her background she may have been hired to fulfil a wider HR role as well with the new recruits, which she will continue with if & when Hedvig returns.

You would think that Line Cecilie O.Veiberg has come in to be more than just be a PA/Admin Support having been a Human Resources Coordinator for Talisman for 4 years before completing a Masters in International Human Resources Management at Rome Business School.

It’s difficult to get excited as there seems to be very little appetite for shares for the time being - certainly doesn’t feel like an RNS is about to drop tomorrow, but I do think there must be lots happening and we should find out more fairly soon.

I know I’ve said this before but I just can’t see how these new positions could be for due diligence.

If they’re in advanced discussions on certain deals, would they be able to ask a vendor to wait? The job adverts have deadlines of 21st April, after which they’d need time to filter through applicants and select a shortlist for interviews. Interviews/selection processes would then be arranged which could take a couple of weeks, and if the successful applicants have notice periods it could be anything from 1-3 months after that before they even start work. The whole recruitment process from placing the ad to somebody starting is probably at least 6 weeks, and possibly up to 5 months. That’s before they actually do anything.

Also would you recruit 3 senior permanent positions at the due diligence stage? Wouldn’t it be mostly contract work up until the point they’ve secured a deal?

Maybe I’m reading too much into it but I guess we will find out soon enough.

daveri says Tuesday.

I’m going to say somewhere between 19th & 30th April (last two weeks of the month).

Maybe daveri will elaborate on whether he’s heard of a bookbuild but if it was you generally see that in the market first as word starts to get around. There tend to be too many people involved in these financial arrangements for it not to leak - at least to some.

I could be wrong though! I was also thinking news would probably arrive later in the month but that’s a purely a guess.

“Just a calculated guess/assumption!”

Calculated on what?!

daveri, is that purely a guess?! Just checking as we have been here before ;-). Any actual knowledge or just hoping for the best?

All the best Zeus. I did suggest that some may want to lock in profits or bail out at higher prices having been under water waiting for a deal for such a long time. Everybody will have different strategies and that’s what makes a market.

Have you needed to use that today Nico?

From the look of the trades yesterday & today you would have thought plenty of shares would be available.

Can’t sell more than 500 this morning.

The weirdness continues!

What’s the maximum buy quantity?

Maximum sell was 3750 shares last time I checked.

I don’t think the MMs like to hold too many of these so it’s illiquid in both directions.

Haha I didn’t mean to sound pessimistic! Just not getting ahead of myself after mistakenly doing that last year. I personally think a deal will be done and announced this month but that’s just a hunch based on the recent presentation & job adverts.

Not surprised to see a bit of profit taking today after the recent rise. There are plenty who bought in the 70s/80s over the past year who can get a nice return now with no risk. Many have probably been fed up waiting and are happy to move on now.

I’m going to hold and see if they can get a deal over the line. That first deal (if and when it comes) will set the tone for the company’s future and I will review at that point, but I understand others may want to take their profits given the length of time it’s taken here!

FWIW I discussed the prospect of a Corbyn government with PMO prior to the last election. They were remarkably unconcerned and said the FI sovereignty issue had wide support across the house.

I’m still thinking this month but not necessarily this week.

We shall see.

In the meantime a few more days like today wouldn’t go amiss!

There have been some chunky trades going through for a few weeks now. Mostly 25k chunks at a premium to the ask at the time - guessing negotiated trades. It's interesting how many shares have changed hands recently though - 1.5% of the company traded today alone and there were a couple of similar days last week.

It could be a bit of excitement following the job ads over the weekend or there could be more to it.