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Dimi
I know Saturday night is busy but did you a get a chance to look at this again?
I still can’t see if we more or less agree or not.
Tomorrow might be crazy but I have some time today
Not to worry if you are busy the waveS will continue and we can join anytime
Noah
I value your posts and find them informative and interesting but they can be a bit cryptic and ambiguous as a newbie so I’m never quite sure if I’ve got it right.
Is the red flag removed the order numbers which the RNS on Friday said had been exceeded?
Thanks again and I’ll wait you coming back from your walk
For my tuppence worth he's been helpful to me and generous with his time time as have many here.
Would I have him as a life partner? ...not sure. Would I meet him for a pint/shoot/day at the races/etc definitely. I don't care if his got £19M or 19p he seems fun. If he's got £19M he's buying if he's got 19p I'm buying. I've got plenty of pals who have supposedly had trials for Chelsea but had to turn them down, won the lottery but couldn't find the ticket and so on . I like a bit of embroidery makes life more fun
DIMI
The graph is too detailed and busy for me to see date/prices but from what I can see It is the same as mine, except that C has not definitely finished. We need an upturn in sentiment ala Oz posting earlier,
This is my observations from my "waves of Optimism" Check them against yours
Wave 1 22nd May -- 28th May 35.46p - 58.5p
Wave 2 29 May - 1st June 58.5p -54.25p
Wave 3 1st June - 3rd June 54.25 - 68.85
Wave 4 June 3rd - June 4th 68.85p -66.65p
Wave 5 June 4th - June 8th 66.65p -80.7p
Wave A 8th June - 11 June 80.70p - 65.5p
Wave B 11th June - 16th June 65.5p - 74.2p
Wave C 16th June -??? 74.2p - ???
"Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realises that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond."
Wave A 8th June - 11 June 80.70p - 65.5p size = 15.2p
Wave B 11th June - 16th June 65.5p - 74.2p
Wave C 16th June - ?? 74.2p - ??
1.618 x 15.2p = 24.59 or beyond
74.2p - 24.59p = 49.6p or beyond
Wave C 16th June - ?? 74.2p - ??
1.618 x 15.2p = 24.59 or beyond
74.2p - 24.59p = 49.6p or beyond
We await wave C to complete
To be sure this is where we are, I looked over a larger time scale like you.
Taking a step back, the initial sentiment changed on 14th May.
14th – 22nd May also seems like an entire Eliot wave which completed on 22nd May. This is Macro wave 1 &2. This means the one above starting on 22 May to today must be Macro wave 3&4 of an even larger Eliot wave and so MUST complete
So macro wave 1 & 2 = 14 - 22nd June
Macro wave 3 & 4 22 - 27 June onwards
"Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three.
Macro Wave 3 = wave 5 = 80.7p June 8th
38.2% of 80.7 = 30.83
80.7p - 30.83p = 49.17
Friday's low briefly touched 49.02 respectable margin of error
This DOESN'T mean Macro Wave 4 (current wave C) is over because as OZ says shares don't move for nothing.
Without positive sentiment we meander here but
"Wave 4 may never enter the price territory of wave 1."
Macro wave 1 maxed out at 39p on 19 May so that is the new maximum low.
There is an interesting thread entitled" disappointed but impressed" where I am trying to judge how Friday is generally viewed.
Disappointed - we meander and linger in the 40's 50's
Impressed -we start the new Eliot Wave Macro 5. Although when we start this wave we will have to negotiate Macro ABC corrections when we do that will be the completion of Mega wave 1&2 and we know that wave three is usually the strongest so we have that to look forward to so Mega wave 3 will be massive.
Either way if we see straight C and Macro 4 MUST complete
Health Warning. This all seems straight forward but what are the chances of a shopkeeper and a restaurant owner 1000 miles apart getting this rig
Thanks 33 for your reply and your kind words - I’m just dabbling really. You and dunnie have really generated an informed chat.
It was your gut feeling I was after as I am trying to detect a widespread up shift in sentiment. It seems the majority on the BB are with your gut feeling whatever their method of getting there is.
Pattern wise, once that sentiment reaches a critical mass among the wider investors the wave completes and a new one starts so an upturn. Until then we meander in the 40’s and 50’s
On my reading of the tea leaves the pattern I mentioned in my “waves of optimism”and “keep calm” posts required us to touch at least 49.5. So I was ”pleased” that we put that behind us on Friday
What Stroll did on Friday was to accelerate the conclusion of the pattern we are on which Is good. The sooner it’s over the sooner we go again. As someone else said this could all be BS or just beginners luck.
33 do you think your view is widely shared particularly amongst those who bought into the placement?
Will that view remain if it drops a below the placement price Even temporarily?
If it is we should rise sooner rather than later
Morning all
What a crazy amount of posts yesterday. I gave up as I couldn’t separate the wheat from the chaff!
I think you’ve summed up the conflicting sentiments well Dunnie.
I would be interested to know which sentiment people think will prevail generally - disappointed or impressed. We will rise but on positive sentiment If not we will meander where we are now for a while.
Hi Billy
I almost lost you in the sea of posts today. I I’ve just got into his too so no expert.
My understanding is this is not a theory of share price movement but a theory of the behaviour of investors based on their buy/sell actions.
As in other spheres of life our behaviour is predictable not on an individual basis but as a herd. This eliminates extremes.
This behaviour forms continuous repeating patterns and those pattens are waves. The skill is seeing the pattern.
There are no resets as the pattern is simultaneously part of an identical larger and smaller pattern ... it is fractal.
What that means is that each sub part of an Eliot wave is made up of a whole Eliot wave And is itself a sub part of an even larger Eliot wave. So if you reset you would destroy everything
Although he didn’t realise it at the time the waves use Fibonacci sequencing. I like that because a lot of nature follows Fibonacci sequencing such as the arrangement of leaves on a branch so it makes sense that we should too. Today for example, complicated and frightening news to most of us, the herd panics and sells at a loss. Price drops Perfectly predictable. But not everyone. To win you have to not behave like the herd but read the waves and change your behaviour accordingly.
I have two earlier threads “Waves of Optimism” which kind of got A bit hijacked and “calm down and let this all wash over you “ which got no response. I would be interested in your thoughts
In those threads, If I read the tea leaves correctly (and it was only my first shot) I thought I could see the start of wave C on 16th June. This suggested a correction to around 49.5p or beyond (below) Dimi said as low as 43p. This now doesn’t scare me as once C completes,which it must, then we MUST start wave 1 of a new Eliot wave which is an upturn. Timescales are not given however but as sure as the tide goes out it must come back in again.
"Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realises that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond."
From my earlier thread waves of optimism.
Wave A 8th June - 11 June 80.70p - 65.5p size = 15.2p
Wave B 11th June - 16th June 65.5p - 74.2p
Wave C 16th June - ?? 74.2p - ??
1.618 x 15.2p = 24.59 or beyond
74.2p - 24.59p = 49.6p or beyond
Good news is for long term investors is that when we have put the 5th wave behind us a much larger new impulse wave will start. We seem to be past 3rd down but not sure if 4th down has finished yet.
It is not even July yet
I'm still on for Athens
I still want my free DBX (although I am happy to go easy on the options because of dilution)
I still want to see 33 fan dance (if RBM allows)
etc
Unless anybody persuades me that AML is bust I'm holding. I would buy more/day trade but I don't have the liquidity/experience.
Herring for lunch ...mmmm
Sorry CK
I got thrown by your thread header "I told you so". I misunderstood as it seemed like you were massaging your own ego so I sought clarification as to what you were taking credit for.
On your other point - you keep encouraging me to study fundamentals but tell me that people that have been doing so for years found them useless today and they no help in predicting future movements up or down. Why would I waste my time on something that doesn't help me? You need to make a better case for fundamentals.
I know its not a competition - just a bit of fun. But as you've "no-showed" WG wins by walkover (as in horse racing) so he is the "I told you so" Champion.
Congrats WG you have won one of those fancy cigars you like so much. ( they're not too expensive are they? I've already lost a lot on AML today)
I won't bother you again if you find me tiresome.
HI CK
When I pressed you I thought you told me that you didn't predict dates or prices so I'm not clear what you mean. Hindsight is great but you can't claim bragging rights if you are not precise BEFOREHAND. WG seems to have called it week on week more or less since mid May when I started following. This week he said would be a losing streak. Its not 4:30 pm yet but I would say that was pretty accurate. .
You now have a massive advantage over him. 5 additional days trading data and 5 days less to predict and a price drop from 71.5p 0n the 19 June. His 77p prediction moving to 110p thereafter couldn't be further away today and even though he has reviewed it since, I am following it out of curiosity. If you would care to pit your judgement against his for a meaningless bit of fun to see who can say "I told you so" I am happy to see who is closest on the 10th July. If it helps you can pick the margin of error.
I am not in either of your league and I'm in the red here but holding as 50p 55p should be the start of the end of wave C which means the start of a new upward trend hopefully towards WG's prediction and back into profit. I would buy more but I've learned what liquidity means the last two days as don't have any more liquidity. The down side is that for wave C to finally complete we need a large number of people to behave predictably when the price drops which means panicking and selling at a loss. .
WG is the first to say it might be BS and I agree and he is the first to acknowledge his mistakes. Even today. C'mon it just a bit of fun