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AllahGr8
The waves point to that but as Oz keeps reminding us ONLY on positive news, orders, press, cash flow anything. We might get something at the next report.
Without that we stay on C. The max bottom of my C is around 40p, but what do I know not a lot. Someone else said 41p concrete bottom and 47p resistance.
More bad news we go through resistance towards concrete bottom any good news you're more right than wrong. No news we meander at 50
We just need a clearly positive event
I detect a strong change in sentiment on the BB.
Downward correction ending
Strong Positive upwards wave imminent
I have dyson ready to hoover up love
Hope we’re all LTI’s (thanks JT) in the new consensus
Good night
XXX xxx
MAC & Dunnie
I thought I would try and apply what I outlined to Dunnie about what waves mean in money terms before and now we are out of hours I thought I share it . Sorry to everyone else if you think I'm wasting time.
I decided to practice with £250 on the share you mentioned SOU which I know nothing about (so I'm not pushing it) and just go on patterns alone.
When I looked on Sunday I could not see anything whatsoever so I took a watching brief.
It opened up at 1.75 and started to oscillate wildly. At 8.50 it spiked to 1.95p and down again. By 9 am I thought I saw the start of a third wave and decided to go in at 1.8p on the expectation of a fitfh wave that would peak higher than 1.95p. It wouldn't let me buy and I pressed the wrong button and placed an order - price unquoted. This came back at 2p. I estimated wave 5 if it came would peak at 2.5p so it wasn't too bad. At 11.50am it peaked at 2.6p and started to come down. I was on a work call at that time and by the time I finished it was 2.4 so I sold.
Including, fees, mistakes and "interruptions" I made £23.82p about 9.5%. No fundamentals just pattern playing. With better execution (1.8 - 2.5) I could have done better and with a bit more practice I might do better still.
I don't know if it was just a one off so I will keep repeating the exercise on random shares without research with my 9% larger learning fund. until either it runs out or I make £1M
Sorry agas
Thanks AMANN
I will have a look at it.
AI systems are not very good at recognising patterns before they emerge but google's AlphaGo system recently beat the world champion at Go - the ultimate emerging pattern recognition game - 4-1 so better systems are definitely on the way.
Dimi I don't see it. The troughs today are too low. Also I think we are still in C so any Eliot waves should be reversed.
There might be one that started on Friday at 4pm and hasn't completed today yet, but marginal.
My view watching the price movement is that the overall sentiment about the placement is mixed (55% positive 45% negative). I would describe it as grudgingly positive. We've been made to take medicine that deep down we know we needed but it still doesn't taste nice, and so we are just meandering waiting for the next event to determine the direction. The next up wave is coming but I don't see it yet
Dunnie
A long winded answer to a short question.
The wave is about the zig-zag pattern of behaviour investors display on Reacting to unfolding events. The skill is working out where we are in the pattern
We’ve only been doing this a few days, but if we’ve worked out the pattern right we are nearing the end of a wave.
There are no time scales just events.
The start of the end of the wave was 49.5p which we passed on Friday
The absolute bottom of the wave is just below 40p but we don’t have to go there the wave could end on Monday or we could meander for a year
In money terms the nearer you are to 40p the safer you are until the next wave completes.
So No further reaction to Friday’ events and no other events we meander around 50p
Strong Negative reaction to Friday or other negative events we descend towards 40
Positive reaction to Friday or another event that gets a positive reaction and we start a new wave which must at least zig zag up past the previous wave peak of 80.7p and a good way beyond before that wave peaks and starts descending
Again the big if is have a handful of newbies got this right in a short time?
If we have struck it luckY the next thing is to alter our behaviour to benefit from the predictable, unfolding pattern
I’m new to investing but my understanding of the behaviour to adopt is that if we meander or descend take advantage of this to lower your average to as near to 40p as is possible/affordable as we know the pattern must rise we just don’t know when that event is coming
If In the other hand we start to rise to the a point at which we can say the next wave has started then you sell on the zigs and buy on the zags. As long as in buying we don’t average much above 80.7 again we will be relatively safe until that wave completes. If we can get every zig and zag right we will be in maximum profit and have sold before the wave descends.
Thats the theory anyway. Everyone else on the BB says not advice and dyor so I better say that too. I’m interested to see how this plays out
Hope that helps
Great Mac
So if we say
14 May - 22nd macro w 1-2
22bd - today macro w 3 -4
We know w4 can not encroach w1 so current bottom 40p
Anyone whose average is at least 40p is safe for some time.
I’m not sure I agree with you about the placement. My understanding is that there are just events- a placement, the price of petrol, a war, a strike - and investors react positively or negatively to events.
Timescales are not included
Positive events just slow the trend negative events accelerate trend
In terms of the placement if this had been a failure or taken a week to fill investor sentiment would have been different.
Because we are in a fractal all patterns are trapped at the micro and macro levels there are no resets or recalibrations.
If we agree we are in C then the price needed to drop to at least 49.5p which it did on Friday. The sooner to start macro 5.
All we know now is that touching 49.5 signals the beginning of the end of wave C
If people reflect over the weekend and feel cheated by the placement we may head to meander or head down to 40 mentioned above. If the reaction is positive we may have the actual end of C and the start of macro 5.
What do you think?
Where are you with sou and I’ll have a look for practice?
Dimi and MAC agreed
Exciting
As we are all new to this I still can’t decide if great minds think alike or fools seldom differ.Ha ha
Do you both see the wave starting on 22/5 as waves 3/4 of of macro wave started on 14/5?