Member Info for pandamonia

Thats rubbish tbh, Buffet always bought unloved stocks that had good economical cases. This is investing not trading.

I bought Shell at 900p its now over 2500p, Same with Tullow Oil at 8p. MCRO was 200p sold for 450p. Polymetal was 50p could have got out 350p. sold at 230p.

Grass is always greener on another stock when yours is down but in reality we all need oil and we all need houses. PSN has 80k plots which is 10 years of houses in the bank. They make their own bricks too which adds to margins. Reality in house building is that they all do well or none of them do because houses are a kind of commodity in demand or not. Demand is currently coiling up for no other reason than 1.5m immigrants in 2 years. In 2-3 years this stock will be over 2000p easily and dividend 2x where it currently is. The UK has one more boom left in it before we encounter larger problems, lets hope we all hold our nerve and cash out at the top of the next housing boom.

well im kinda going to diversify anyway as i got a 35k exit package coming this month and 20k is going in isa and the rest for bills until i start my new job next year.

im thinking phnx because their assets write downs are just bonds and they arent real losses and lower rates will rerate them and the dividend is amazing. plus family work there so i got a scoop if **** hits the fan there but i cant see it ever happening as its not a normal company as in it doesnt really sell anything.

the only thing i like about the idea of the dividends is that i could like almost risk free for a long time and in theory compound the dividends if i dont need to spend them. usually i have a good sales job but sales isnt the most secure job so it keeps me sane having my fu money invested.

Ok here is my dilemma.

Im betting that PSN will 3x in the next 5-10 years and return to 15% dividend and then i will derisk at next house price peak/boom

But today i could buy PHNX, AV, LGEN, VODA, MNG and few others and earn enough in dividends to live mortgage free for life at the expense of potential large capital returns if the house builders return to peak sales.

Im sure i might get some capital gain but it would be very limited compared to a beaten housebuilder market making a recovery and if it does the dividends could be even larger...

So what would you do?

10% dividend pretty secure for ever on around 150k ISA or go for the big win 450k and 15% in the future ..... maybe?

:D

Ill be honest i have not looked at Crest, sounds like a great buy over medium term. Im balls deep in UK stocks because they are just so cheap. Phoenix Groups 11% dividend also 30% down and 2013 price also. Its like buying at a lost decade price in UK stocks right now.

No thats in GBP.

I think its crazy this stock is priced like 2013 without any debt and 300-500m in cash and a huge 85k plot land bank. House prices just will not fall either and rates will subside towards 4% soon in 2024.

I only own 126k of them so its no big deal.... LOL

First stock i owned for ages that went up after a trading update ROFL

Well this is a painful holding experience so far but my 31k redundancy cheque will soften the blow for a while

Let me tell you a fact.

Local house prices have very little to do with new build house prices in reality. I can tell you this because i live in one and before this estate arrived the local area was significantly cheaper. a VERY big 4 bed here was around 300k 6 years ago. A new build large 4 bed here is up for 550-600k now. My medium sized 4 bed is up for 420k down from 440k and i paid 335k for mine.

If someone wants to buy some old crappy house with a E or F energy rating and a ton of work to be done to the property to modernise it then good luck to them. Ill take my B rated property any day of the week with warranty and nobody elses terrible decor to deal with when moving in.

I can tell you one thing. It does not cost 100k more to build my house today than 6 years ago. So there is plenty of margins in new builds and the builders will scale their cost bases accordingly to sales rates. Nobody can force a builder to build either. It would require massive changes to laws on land ownership which they cannot do without causing serious problems in other areas. The government has only a few levers to pull to sort out the housing problem.

Cut red tape - Green crap

Cut planning issues - Council crap

Help2buy - Either FTB or everyone.

Builders control none of the above so they will just match demand with building rates and the revenue will be what it is and the cost base will be cut accordingly. Either way when the government wants more houses they can get out of the way of the builders and let them build when rates become sensible.

If Help2Buy comes back it will come back to get first time buyers on the market and Persimmon are much more likely to benefit than Redrow who are selling huge houses and over priced entry level ones in a high rate environment.

So what the 250 and 350 are indexes which pension funds buy. They also outperform the 100 on its own and have done for 25 years. it would not materially change the share price.

Nothing good.

Someone explain how Redrow, Berkley, TW and Bellway are flat compared to a 14% decline in PSN since i started watching house builders?

They have zero debt also. So why do they need to sell shares to raise capital with a massive land bank and a dividend they can cut?

35% cut in building does what to building materials? It crashes the price. A fall in demand for land does what to land values? Crashes the price. A fall in demand for trades does what? Crashes wages.

After this the BOE will be forced to cut rates to stimulate the economy and the cycle starts again. Without new builds there are not affordable housing projects. All affordable housing is now built on new build estates.

Margins will have to be restored in house building by cutting costs and improving the mix of sales. Help2buy is likely the only lever the government will have to improve build rates and sales. Without improving house building rates you end up in Canadas situation where a 4 bed 1300ft house is 1.2m CAD. Its nearly impossible to get out of that problem once you are in it.

2008 was a mortgage liquidity crisis where banks didnt have any liquidity to lend and mortgage approvals dropped to near zero. Even in this financial crisis the prices of houses only fell 25%. There were sky scrapers half built where firms had gone bankrupt due to financing being pulled by the banks. Not every recession is 2008 lol. There are 5 bed houses selling on my new build estate for 600k right now and 2 old people live in them. The new build market appeals to other types of buyers and not 90% mortgage buyers on 7% rates.

Stargate. The last line about 20% yield being paid basically just sums up your knowledge of stocks. This invalidates everything said previously.

Please take your technical mumbo jumbo somewhere else.

PSN is a cycle play for future returns and dividends. There is an acute shortage of homes in the UK and net migration is at record highs. Had it not been for landlords selling up the demand would be even higher. A slump in housebuilding will cause material deflation eventually as companies cannot sell their materials to builders who have cut supply by 30-50% in a year.

Start investing and stop gambling. Buy FTSE100 companies like this on the bad days not in 2021 housing peaks and you will be rewarded.

There are always quality problems on some homes. They still got 5 stars though so its obviously the exception than the rule.

Also old houses are full of problems and low energy rating. Pick your poison.

House building goes in cycles and there is no way 6% can stay longer than needed as its economic contraction rate and zero growth will come at 6%

Global inflation is falling in the US and EU so did people really think the UK would somehow keep going up?

We are lagging two bigger markets due to poor energy policy and greedy companies.

UK suffers due to bad policy as usual

You are a clown if you think the share will hit 6 quid.

Zero debt with massive land bank. Mass immigration and shortage of housing. Rates will fall to 2-3% minimum This makes housing market move and HTB to get buyers on the market and encourage builders to build faster.

So why we up 4.5%

Everyone was saying we going to 6 quid?