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The reason they gave spud date of Q3 next year is it gives them the option of bringing it forward to Q2, which gives a longer period of the dry season to drill. They were basing this on the seismic being done this year, which gives them enough time to process it after Q3, while it's the wet season, ready for start in Q2 if they wanted or the stated Q3.

Even if they did seismic in Q2, They would still not have enough time.

Let's say they were drilling Chikumbi this year in Q3 or Q4 rather than next year. By your logic, you reckon they would also do the the 3D seismic in Q3 this year and interpret it ready for drilling in Q3 or Q4 in the same year. Not enough time.

I don't think so. The long dry season is June, July August, September and October. Plenty of time to get the 3D seismic in. After that, the rains come , November to late May. If they don't get approval for the seismic this year then they won't be drilling next year. That's not what the Government want, imo.

Putting it in a simpler way, if the Tanzanian Government are expecting the drill to take place next year as they want it to, and remember it's their gas they need out the ground due to the rising demand from users, then what are the Government going to say if one of it's departments hasn't given timely approval for the 3D seismic, if the well ends up not being drilled.

Yes, but you have to understand the Tanzanian Government have approved the budget and drilling for next year which means the 3D seismic comes first before the drill and it's programmed in for Q3 as approved by TPDC as necessary for the work programme. So timewise Q3 is logical, pending Tanzanian authorities approval of the tender and contact and contractor. Make perfect sense.

The Tanzanian Government giving approval to Chikumbi drilling in 2022 is a sign they want the well drilled next year. By virtue of this, one can say the seismic will be carried out as APT have said, which is in Q3. Could have been Q2 if the Tanzanian authorities had given approval sooner. I guess it just means approval is due any day.

The work programme has the 3D seismic for Q2-Q3. So it's already late, but this is in all liklihood due to the Tanzanian authorities yet to give approval. Hence on the timings and weather window of Q2-Q3, one would expect the approval to be sooner rather than later, but as we know it depends on the Tanzanian authorities, as ever.

The joint venture has agreed to a work programme and budget to acquire a 400km2 full fold (454km2 surface footprint) 3D survey in the second and third quarter of 2021 to align with the next available operational weather window in Tanzania. Currently the seismic database comprises of 2D lines of varying vintages and quality therefore by acquiring and processing a modern 3D seismic survey the joint venture will secure improved subsurface imaging of the project ahead of full field development. The seismic survey design has been updated by APT to optimise the imaging of the original interpretation as well as providing better resolution of upside potential. The alteration of the survey's footprint allows for optimisation of the data acquisition without increasing costs to the joint venture. The survey, which will be acquired through a combination of vibroseis and explosive sources to take account for surface topography and to minimise the impact of the survey on the local community, will provide critical technical information in designing the full field development plans for the Ntorya gas discovery.

3D seismic programme.

APT intends to engage immediately in the contracting and procurement of the relevant services to ensure that the survey is acquired in the next available weather window in Q2 2021. This will allow the joint venture to have sight of the early product processed data ahead of the spudding of the Chikumbi-1 well and reliance on the new data set for integration into the development planning for full field development. The acquisition of the 3D seismic is a critical path activity head of the investment decision on full field development and therefore a key determinant in the timeline to first gas.

I think they will want to do the 3D now while it's the dry season.

That's not true jono.

Yearly rates for the licences were agreed for the 3 year period before the last renewal, something like $250k per year, which CEG have offered to pay ($750k), however the Bahamas Government feel they are owed more due to the delays the Government caused which required licence extensions while CEG couldn't operate the licence. Obviously due to not being able to operate the licence, CEG rightfully say we aren't paying for the delays.

They already have licence fees set aside in the accounts. They even sent a cheque. But Bahamas Government want more as we know. This is currently being reconciled.

Equity raise was part of the company reset. RBL will be for asset development.

To add, $10m is available based on current 2P reserves of 1.3MMb.
If Saffron 2 appraisal proves up further reserves of 11MMB, then the RBL available will be considerably more.

Just on current production 450-500 bopd and current 2P reserves of 1.3MMb at $40 a barrel, oil production exists for 7 years with reserve base in excess of $50m. Given these production and economic characteristics, 2P reserves are a readily monetizable asset, and BPC has been approached by various financing providers requesting the Company to consider the suitability of a Reserve Base Lending (RBL) facility against its 2P reserves.

Reserve-based lending facilities: BPC has been approached by various financing providers requesting the Company to consider the suitability of an RBL facility against its 2P reserves. If successful up to $10 million could become available during 2021.

An asset proven to contain 11MMb should be enough to lend against. A pre payment loan based on future production is also possible. Obviously the faster you can produce more oil the faster the balance of the pre payment reduces. Depends if they want to borrow against the asset or against future production. A $10m RBL has already been negotiated with Trinidad Bank Republic Bank.

The well bore has been cased and will be in good condition, therefore optimal flow rates can be achieved. The reason there was no flow at saffron 1 was due to the poor downhole conditions caused by the heavy mud and the swelling of clay. A successful test of the Saffron 2 appraisal well will allow P2 reserves to be booked. Estimated to be 11MMb.

Too right I'd be having a robust conversation about that. Hypocrisy of the highest order when a government doesn't pay it's invoices but still expects Aminex to pay it's tax.

Why conflate two different issues. Aminex are owed money and are quite willing to pay taxes from the $7m they are owed. Aminex could say just pay us the £3m net that we are owed and you can keep the rest as your tax payment. I'm sure they have said to TPDC pay us our $7m on gas we first sold you then we can pay any tax that you say we owe. It's a bit rich for any government to say pay our tax on gas sales even though you haven't received any money for those gas sales.