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Further good news catalysts to come. Aminex has been so quiet so far this year, but the wall of news that operations on the ground have started will create interest, especially at this low sp.

We know they perforated 130ft of the lower cruse on 28th July and the well will take several days to clean up the drilling fluids. They then intend to perforate 200ft of the middle cruse after testing the lower cruse. Several days of clean up would be approximately a week or more, to around 4th August, so I expect they will be getting some initial flow rate and pressure data from the lower cruse. I doubt they will announce initial flow rates immediately as they will want to see how the well performs and see if there are any pressure declines and test the choke setting for sustainable production. I guess 10 days of production is an ideal period before reporting flow rates. I guess that would take us up to about todays date, so hopefully some news next week on the lower cruse.

Todays news is game changing in the context of moving forward with the work programme. A lot to come and the share is on it's arse. Either buy and hold or pay more in the future.

While nothing moves fast in Tanzania, it does move. Aminex have been waiting a long time and things are starting to get going. The low base that the sp is at leaves room for incremental increases as we go along, which when put together in 6-12 months time will mean a big increase.

A lot of news flow coming up that's all positive.

Licence fees are agreed at the beginning of the 3 year period and paid annually. The Bahamas Government created delays and are disputing the fees already agreed . The Government delays meant CEG could not operate the licence or meet it's obligations and extensions needed to be sought. The very granting of these extensions is an admission of guilt, which is why the environmentalists could not understand why if the Government says it is against oil drilling why it continued to grant extensions. These extensions meant that CEG needed longer than the 3 year period to drill Perseverance and The Government are of the opinion that CEG should pay more in licence fees for these granted extensions, even though CEG were unable to fully carry out operations due to The Government. Hence there is a difference in opinion on the amount of licence fees owed. The Bahamas Government want more money for the period they caused CEG not to be able to carry out their operations. An independent decision may be needed to resolve this, in which case The Bahamas Government may end up with less money than has already been offered/paid, if it is seen that they were the cause of the delays and the reason extensions were requested.
Incidentally, it is interesting they refer today in the RNS that the Perseverance well has been plugged and secured. The usual term is plugged and abandoned. This leads me to think that the Perseverance well will be re-entered at a later date by a partner to deepen the well and test the Jurassic intervals. It would be a cost effective option to gain more data and potentially confirm a Jurassic discovery. This would be in addition to drilling a second well. Plugged and secured for later operations, rather than totally abandoned.

jono44, I have not forgotten the outstanding licence fees, but as you know there is a reconciliation process going on which is addressing this. CEG are not refusing to pay their licence fee. In fact they have already sent a cheque for the outstanding fee to The Government but they chose to reject the amount. If reconciliation is not successful then it will go to arbitration. The Government will need a very good case to be successful in arguing they are owed more money than the licence terms stipulate and were agreed previously. The fees are only outstanding because the Government won't accept them. It's not the same as CEG haven't paid and have not met it's obligations. It's doing everything it possibly can to pay.

nathondo, thanks. It's a summary of where things are, without all the negative spin.

GarryGraham,
1. CEG are applying for the third 3 year period of licences that total a 12 year tenure. This period of renewal is not only if The Bahamas Government feels like it. It's a legally binding right that CEG have provided they have met all obligations, which they have. Political opinions do not come into it due to the legal requirements entered into by the Government, although with an election in May the current Government will want to delay as they will be concerned if the renew the licences they will lose votes. This could backfire, due to everyone knowing the Government says one thing and does the opposite. You will note obligations for the next 3 year period are being discussed and agreed with the Government. There is a requirement to relinquish 50% of the licence area, which is part of the licence terms, in order to be granted the 3rd 3 year period. The areas for relinquishment are identified as non prospective areas. The environmentalists have withdrawn entirely their legal action, which to them was more about clarifying the legal position on future drilling and the required approvals associated with it, post Perseverance. This does not mean drilling will not take place in the future. It's clear that substantial amounts of money will be needed as security for any future legal action. It's an expensive action to challenge legal oil drilling that has already been laid down in law by Parliament under the Petroleum Act 2016.
2. If you look at Guyana and what has happened successfully. This is not a barrier to The Bahamas now they have the prognosis from the Perseverance well, with oil in the Jurassic akin to Cuba and The East Gulf of Mexico. A major will want to consider the prospect of new oil in shallower waters so close to the Gulf of Mexico and therefore will do their due diligence. For sure, anti oil drilling voices will attempt to influence the current Government, and the Government will reciprocate voicing their opposition to oil drilling, but the reality is the Government had to allow CEG to drill Perseverance or else be sued for $130m. This is the legal position and advice from the Governments own attorney general.
3. Perseverance was never intended or designed to test the Jurassic. The decision to end the drilling at 3950m was due to the non commercial volumes of migrated oil. A better location where migration has taken place will be the next drill, with a direct target into the deeper Jurassic source as a test of the oil volumes in place.
4. The next 3 years will require a well to be drilled. This is known as drill or drop. ie a partner will be needed to drill the well. The fortunate thing is that any partner will know that the granting of the next 3 year period will involve a well and therefore permission from the Government to drill.
5. Zero chance was said by many about drilling a well. But they were all wrong.

A good update with Perseverance confirming the presence of oil in the Jurassic, with temperatures at depth cool enough for the oil window to have generated oil similar to Cuba and East Gulf of Mexico, ie not hot at depth and HC's in a gas phase. Reservoir porosity at depth excellent with high production reservoirs. This is music to the ears of majors. Due diligence confirmed as being carried out by potential partners. September confirmed as full prognosis of well result. Farmout by then would be optimistic, but depending on what CEG announce in the prognosis, this may have an impact on the timing of any partner decisions. At least, exclusive information will become public that may encourage further interest. It has already been established that interest has been generated with unsolicited approaches by potential partners post Perseverance. Current licence extension not a pressing requirement for farmout, but of course necessary for a second well to be executed. Some reference to obligations being agreed with the Government indicates a partner will be negotiating these with the Government as part of the farmout. A partner onboard before extension to licences would give impetus, although with elections next year, no Government is going to give the green light before an election, but with the opposition in favour of oil drilling, the current Government may be on the way out anyway. Would have liked to have had an update on the final costs for Perseverance, but with this not mentioned, the plus side is that Stena are not making time demands on payments. No doubt an acceptance of responsibility for dropping the down hole assembly, so something is mutually being worked on. Saffron 2 results are now the focus of news. Today's RNS timing would indicate CEG do not want any distractions from flow rate news.

I see Helium 1 didn't find any helium in their well only had shows.. There Mcap is £80m. What is it with the market and these wild valuations. AEX have discovered about 1Tcf of gas and ARA have upgraded the resource to 3Tcf after theyve reinterpreted the 2D seismic. Yet we are sat at £21m Mcap.

You'll find a lot of these shorters will say they are disappearing before the sp rises. I guess they don't like a company to do well and can't bear to be around if there is good news. They just move to where they can continue to be negative on another company. Takes some doing to be a troll like that. I would say there mental state must be a continuous depression, or bitterness.

Shameful so close to Saffron flow results. Wanting holders to sell.

I see all the derampers and trolls are out today. Nothing new.

Sentiment here is at it's lowest. I would agree there is money to be made at today's sp should Saffron 2 deliver the oil flow expected. I would say considerable gains to be made for those just buying in when sentiment changes and a route to production and revenue increase is established. For existing holders, they will be glad to get their money back. For the incessant bleaters and moaning minnies, I suspect they will never be happy. It's just their character trait of not understanding or agenda to be negative that either makes them feel better or they have a financial interest in the company failing.

davidbrent - the cry baby posts on here are all exactly about the fact Perseverance didn't find commercial oil. They wouldn't be crying like baby's otherwise. They would all be saying how wonderful the Company is for drilling Perseverance and what a great team everyone is, and oooh isn't it lovely Jeez!

Sorry toli, that was for Srdoddy.
Srdoddy. - The Company have stated the next licence renewal is a drill or drop 3 year period in which they aim to find a farm-in partner and drill the deeper Jurassic based on the results of Perseverance 1. If they don't get a partner then they won't drill. I have no idea if they will get a partner, but the type of well that needs drilling is reserved for oil majors rather than independents. Surely you've read the Company statements on the next steps in The Bahamans and their intentions?

toli. - The Company have stated the next licence renewal is a drill or drop 3 year period in which they aim to find a farm-in partner and drill the deeper Jurassic based on the results of Perseverance 1. If they don't get a partner then they won't drill. I have no idea if they will get a partner, but the type of well that needs drilling is reserved for oil majors rather than independents. Surely you've read the Company statements on the next steps in The Bahamans and their intentions?

An arbitrator can decide. If CEG go to arbitration, then The Bahamas Government have got to work out whether they would win or lose. If they lose, they may end up being paid less and have other costs to pay. So maybe they should come to a compromise.

BPC/CEG were never funded to drill the Jurassic. That costs too much. They were only ever funded to drill the Cretaceous. The hope was enough oil volume was present in the Aptian/Albian. They had oil, but not enough volume to be commercial. Jurassic drilling is for the oil majors.