Member Info for PageofCups

The main driver for the points below will be oil price. It's now in the zone for majors to start taking on new projects to bridge the deficit in oil investment and reserve depletion, brought about by Covid-19 and the seen to be going green fad.

It's over for those who have taken a loss. A number of things have changed for CEG.
1. Oil price on an upward trajectory to $100 a barrel.
2. New government in The Bahamas who are pro oil.
3. New field development strategy at Saffron, that now involves the middle and upper cruse, which was thought not to be commercial but has proven 80bopd, This brings in a improved cost and risk profile that allows for a number of funding scenarios as a stand alone field development.
4. Lower cruse proven to hold oil that is recoverable to surface, with the right well completion, now identified as an engineering solution.
5. Farmout now part of the funding mix, for the Saffron field.
6. Increasing production from Saffron 2, once well has cleaned up and upper cruse perforated and tested.
7. Licence fees to be resolved with agreed payment with new government and extension granted for another 3 years with permission for another well.
8. Perseverance report to be published.
9. New Bahamas government looking to stimulate economic activity that can tackle the economic deficit.
9. Farmout partner for the next well in The Bahamas.

Zag, it's dependent of the volume of oil in any field. A field with a long production profile and reasonable costs to extract with more of the production revenue being kept by the producer, makes for attractive investment.

I guess assume 450bopd. Gross cash generation of approximately £1m per month. T&T are implementing changes to attract investment from oil producers. Coupled with the oil price, makes for an ideal investing/funding environment for any projects with commercial oil.

Oil is doing very well. This must be boosting CEG cash position.

Lower cruse has an NPV circa $90m.
As for farmout, please read the following as already announced by the company.

The Company and Arena Investors LP continue to discuss funding options for a Saffron field development, with those discussions to be further advanced once the revised development plan for the Saffron field is finalised.

In parallel, based on the outcomes of Saffron-2, the Company has begun investigating options for a farm-out of the Saffron project, which, if achieved, would present a fundamentally different approach and risk profile for development of the project than has been considered to-date. The Company has also begun investigating various Reserve Based Lending options, as a potential debt component of any project funding plan.

Antha, If they sold any of their assets, then the ability to borrow against reserves would not be available. 2P reserves are 1.3MMb, with a RBL of $10m. If CEG decide to enter a RBL facility and can draw down as and when required, this will allow the development for example of the SWP shallow targets, middle and upper cruse. It is also CEG's intention to farmout the SWP and the Saffron development, which is more likely to target the lower cruse. So you see, retaining all of the oil producing assets is key to the funding.

What did they say about the website. Is there a reason why it's down?

When will they fix the website? Come on Aminex.

20th October, investor meeting for the LNG project. Lets hope the government pay the cash Aminex are owed for the gas. Wentworth seem to get paid. So why not Aminex.
https://dailynews.co.tz/news/2021-10-06615daf6ec22a1.aspx

Mick,
You do realise that what PWC are saying is that there are no exceptions relating to the audit and that all of CEG's books, and audit trail is correct and above board and complies with IOM accounting standards. In other words, a clean bill of health.

Report on other legal and regulatory requirements.
Adequacy of accounting records and information and explanations received.
Under the Isle of Man Companies Acts 1931 to 2004 we are required to report to you by exception if, in our opinion:
• we HAVE NOT received all the information and explanations we require for our audit;
• proper books of account HAVE NOT been kept, or proper returns adequate for our audit HAVE NOT been received from branches not visited by us;
• the company financial statements ARE NOT in agreement with the books of account and returns; and
• certain disclosures of directors’ loans and remuneration specified by law HAVE NOT been complied with.
We have no exceptions to report arising from this responsibility.

Obadhia, You do realise that what PWC are saying is that there are no exceptions relating to the audit and that all of CEG's books, and audit trail is correct and above board and complies with IOM accounting standards. In other words, a clean bill of health.

Report on other legal and regulatory requirements.
Adequacy of accounting records and information and explanations received.
Under the Isle of Man Companies Acts 1931 to 2004 we are required to report to you by exception if, in our opinion:
• we HAVE NOT received all the information and explanations we require for our audit;
• proper books of account have not been kept, or proper returns adequate for our audit HAVE NOT been received from branches not visited by us;
• the company financial statements ARE NOT in agreement with the books of account and returns; and
• certain disclosures of directors’ loans and remuneration specified by law HAVE NOT been complied with.
We have no exceptions to report arising from this responsibility.

Good to see the LNG projects will be starting asap. Huge investments from Shell and other oil and gas majors, gives confidence that Aminex, and our own big investor, are in the right place with the Tanzanian government now keen to get the gas flowing.

https://dailynews.co.tz/news/2021-10-06615d4c1766f03.aspx

matherdj

The Chikumbi-1 well is located within the Mtwara Licence of the Ruvuma PSA, in Southern Tanzania, approximately 4 km west of the successful 2017 Ntorya-2 appraisal well, in the onshore portion of the Ruvuma Basin.

Chikumbi-1, which will be drilled to a total true vertical depth of 3,485m, will fulfil one of two remaining exploration commitment wells and, upon success, is intended to be completed as a producing well in a future development programme.

The well will have two primary targets: to further delineate the Ntorya Gas Field (which is projected to encounter stratigraphically trapped Albian aged reservoirs, approximately 120 meters up-dip from Ntorya-2 and approximately 195 meters up-dip from the Ntorya-1 discovery well) and to test a deeper, stratigraphically trapped Late Jurassic Exploration target.

The importance of the 3D seismic moving straight to the CH-1 drill site will help improve the wells target definition and size, particularly seeing as CH-1 has been specifically chosen to test the deeper Jurassic oil target. It will be a major development if the 3D indicates an oil target, or an increased gas target.

Reserves don't become resources. It's resources, ie: CH-1 targeting 1,990 Bcf of resources, which then become proven reserves if successful. Obviously the 3D seismic can increase the estimated resource and identify a deeper oil target, which will be a material development. Indeed, if you read Scirocco's half yearly report, they mention the 3D seismic as being an important catalyst.
Extract from Scirocco:
We have also seen concrete progress in our most significant legacy asset at Ruvuma with the award of a two-year licence extension and the much-awaited seismic acquisition project being kicked off with the award of a contract to AGS. We expect this work programme to be an important catalyst for value as the project is better defined and derisked.

In Tanzania, the Company is very encouraged by the recent developments surrounding its working interest investment in the Ruvuma PSA, and believes that the 2-year extension granted by the Government is a clear indication of significant progress. The project is about to enter a period of significant activity, both on the operational and commercial fronts, and the Board continues to believe that the project represents a high-quality opportunity to develop indigenous gas into an existing infrastructure network and market. The planned seismic acquisition and drilling programmes are expected to offer a significant value catalyst and the Board continues to explore monetization opportunities for its legacy natural gas assets.

Must be on a few watchlists with the 3D seismic kicking off.

what on earth are they doing with the spread. 0.65 / 0.8p

From Scirocco half yearly report:

We have also seen concrete progress in our most significant legacy asset at Ruvuma with the award of a two-year licence extension and the much-awaited seismic acquisition project being kicked off with the award of a contract to AGS. We expect this work programme to be an important catalyst for value as the project is better defined and derisked.

'Imminent'

The Company is pleased to report that ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT") has made meaningful progress on the Ruvuma project within the last two months. APT has secured a two-year license extension under the Ruvuma PSA from the Ministry of Energy of Tanzania and awarded the Seismic Acquisition Contract. The seismic acquisition operations are scheduled to commence imminently. APT efficiently completed the procurement process and secured highly competitive acquisition rates that benefit the project with considerable financial savings. The Ntorya gas development is entering a period of operational activity by acquiring 3D seismic and well execution, representing significant steps towards monetising this large gas resource into existing infrastructure and an established market in Tanzania. APT has demonstrated focused determination and commitment to move the project forward, for which the Company is pleased.