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Redtrader - I appreciate what you are saying and I'd be more than happy to see gold in August but I would stick to the guidance that Shaun gave as around March 2024 until otherwise updated.
They can't continue on past the exploration stage of the decline without the Stage 2 approval. The revised Stage 2 proposal has not been issued on the EPA website for public comment yet. The approval may well be fast-tracked like the Stage 1 was but there is a lot more involved in the approval process this time - mainly the new haulage road that will cut through some of the sand-dunes on route to Telfer.
The decline and mine development will hit the required targets now once the approval process does not get held up any further - that's probably why they are making sure all the stakeholders, including the local indigenous people are onside before publishing it. That will minimise the risk of any objection which could cause a delay.
ATB - Paddy
Great news on the decline advancement but not real surprise - Shaun said they were accelerating all the time and bang on cue, they've done ~300m since the last update.
Makes no difference in it is actual decline metres or other development - it's the number that is impressive. If they keep this progress up (no reason to think they won't) then they will have the exploration part of the decline completed before they get sign off on Stage 2 of the plan which they need to begin the stope development anyway.
I emailed Greatland and received confirmation that the exploration permit allows them to create the drilling platforms on top of the ore-body so they will be able to get the UG drilling rigs into place and start drilling the "bejaysus" out of the Northern breccia and the NW Pod. We will start to see a lot of results from around July/August time.
All good - looking forward to the updates from Shaun next week.
ATB - Paddy
So in essence they will need to make all the data available to NEM so they can complete their due diligence but making it public won't serve any purpose as it would be valued purely on the data and not on market reaction - even if everyone and their dog was shouting about the 20Moz monster that is Havieron - if the data doesn't show it as that then it will be valued appropriately.
This is what Shaun used to our advantage in the 5% negotiations (as he managed to get up to date drill data included) and in theory it could become beneficial to us again as the valuation that could be placed on Havieron is going to be limited yet again.
So Newcrest / Newmont bean counters will have a valuation against the 70% of Havieron and I guess a valuation of Telfer. They can't dispose of the 70% of Havieron without giving us right of LAST refusal and if they were to do so then Telfer would in effect become a huge liability on their books.
So in my mind there are only three outcomes - Newmont/Newcrest continue with the 70% of Telfer and the JV as agreed, Newmont/Newcrest decide to sell lock, stock & barrel and we are in position to somehow take advantage of that or Newmont/Newcrest decide to offer Shaun & us an "eye-watering" amount for our share of Havieron, because even though the due diligence may place a value on our 30% we are under no obligation to accept it.
So all-in-all - it's precisely as it was prior to the takeover bid, but perhaps with a little more uncertainty on our major partner's side. I'm confident that Shaun & the team have all bases covered and I know for a fact that he stated if a offer were to be made for our 30% then he would be issuing an updated MRE immediately - because market sentiment would be far more powerful for us than either of the 2 majors.
Nice and relaxed about the coming weeks & months - let's see that mining proposal published on the EPA website soon hopefully.
ATB - Paddy
I wholeheartedly agree Dip - Shaun has secured the 30% of Havieron regardless of the outcome of the NCM / NEM takeover bid (although that is looking more & more likely to fly IMO) and that is what both he & Wyloo will have originally based their business plans on.
The revenue generated there will allow them to develop their strategy - remember his answer to my question after the AGM - he said that the asset they "might" look to bring in may not be a producing asset but would have a clear pathway to production - they obviously have been scouring WA for the right high quality asset to bring into the portfolio to sit alongside Havieron.
Then there are the 100% assets. He clearly loves EG but has also said that they want to walk Bromus & Panorama along the exploration curve too and we still need to interpret and formulate plans to 2023 for both Scallywag & Rudall, along with plans for the Juri.
Then there is the curveball of the possibility of getting 100% of Havieron, while I won't be upset if we don't get it - the possibility is certainly mouth-watering...
I'm looking forward to seeing what NCM have to say on Wednesday night even more now - the fact that they haven't engaged yet leads me to think that they are pretty confident of producing some excellent results, who knows we may even get an updated resource with the half-yearly, although it's NCM so I wouldn't hold my breath.....
ATB - Paddy
The last sentence in that paragraph only underlines that also TT,
" We retain our enthusiasm for depth extensions on top of that, but with much of the first-build negotiations coming to an end pending perhaps debt, the new team opens the door to an exciting new growth phase: M&A, as the buyer, not the seller."
M&A, as the buyer, not the seller....
ATB - Paddy
Have a look at Simon Tyrrell's LinkedIn page.
Scroll down through his previous experiences and see that he was the Chief Plant Metallurgist at Telfer for two years 2004-2005.
Look at his experience at Northern Star for the past 6 years and ask yourself why he's leaving this senior position at a mid-tier Aussie gold producer to come to a small AIM listed developer.
Well it ain't just for 30% of Havieron, IMO.
ATB Paddy
Great insights from Callum into the geology of the Paterson region and the techniques that they use and can apply to the results to hone in on the fluid trap areas. He seems very confident that there is a system in the Black Hills and we are very close to it - mega exciting.
Then the second half where he is prepared to chat openly about the options that are on the table and regardless of the outcome - it is a win/win for Greatland. He is smiling like a Cheshire cat. I suppose the idea of dividends on 85million shares is a nice thought to look forward too as you bob about in your boat off the Perth coast.
Good luck to him - he deserves all that's coming his way.
ATB - Paddy
Agreed Lazypunter - you know what I really, really love about this morning?
It's funny how the whole Newmont thing has gone full circle since 2018 - it's almost like Karma and the mining Gods are on our side this time.
Shaun is a very, very astute and sharp businessman, I wish he was here when the original farm-in / JV was penned but we got the next best thing when he was chosen (by Callum & Gervaise TBF) to take on this stage of the development. I agree that the banks & instos will be clamouring to get on board with this company once the updated MRE & DFS are out there. Most investors will look at the management team first and then look at the asset - as a good team can maximise a mediocre asset but a crap team can screw up even the best asset.
I think we have the best of both world's - bring it on....
The next thing that we should see any day now would be the mining proposal for Stage 2 submitted to the EPA which should be open for comments for 10 days. This will give us a view of the mining plan, the plans for the infrastructure, the road to Telfer, the modifications required at Telfer to treat the Havieron ore, etc, etc
This will show us the amount of work that has been done behind the scenes to keep the Havieron project on track for first ore in 2024. Shaun said this should be submitted early in the March quarter so expecting it to drop any day now.
ATB - Paddy
Some paragraph's from an article just published.
"Should Newmont succeed in devouring Newcrest, it will no doubt want to own and expand the Cadia mine in NSW.
It will probably like the mix of immediate cashflow and future potential at PNG’s Lihir and will want the long-term optionality offered by Canada’s Red Chris and PNG’s Wafi-Golpu.
But it is harder to see Newmont having the patience for the more marginal Telfer mine in WA, even though the discovery of the Havieron gold and copper deposit nearby has revived its fortunes.
An auction for Telfer would attract plenty of attention, not least from mining billionaire Andrew Forrest, who has personally invested in the small explorer that found Havieron in Telfer’s hinterland – Greatland Gold."
“To defend a potential takeover, the Newcrest board may release additional information to the market on key projects such as Havieron, Red Chris and Golpu,” he said, in reference to three of Newcrest’s pre-revenue growth options.
“Non core assets might be considered for sale, such as Telfer-Havieron ... or Newcrest’s 32 per cent stake in Lundin Gold.”
Mr Morgan said Newcrest’s stake in Lundin could be worth $1.2 billion while its stakes in the province around Telfer and Havieron could fetch $1.9 billion."
Seems like a bargain to me $1.9billion for Telfer & Havieron and to consolidate the whole of the Paterson region.
So there you go - it's out in the public in black & white. Now it's time for Shaun's B&D team to go to work in a big way. Opportunities like this don't come along very often.
GLA - Paddy
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fcompanies%2Fmining%2Fnewmont-takes-a-bite-mid-caps-wait-for-the-crumbs-20230206-p5cicu
Cheers Reddirt - great to hear for you. I'm not that active on here these days myself TBF.
Your summary of the possible outcome may well come to fruition - only time will tell, but Shaun has prepared and put the team in place to deal with any eventuality that presents itself. I like the cut of his jib -
"fail to prepare" - "prepare to fail"
ATB - Paddy
What do people seriously think - all these mining industry experienced professionals who are currently holding down senior positions at major Australian companies are coming to an AIM tiddler for a jolly?
Shaun is putting down the foundations & building blocks for what will be a major force in Australian mining - these people can see the opportunity to get in at the start of the journey that has been sold to them by Shaun and the new board. Of course it has it's risks and nothing is guaranteed but the drive and ambition of these people will propel us to the next level.
"Investors" in the company should be getting behind these developments and be providing the support that the team needs. Shaun has conveyed his vision clearly over the past couple of years at numerous Town Hall meetings and Q&A sessions - if this is coming as a surprise to anyone then they have not been paying attention.
Good on you cobber - here's to the next 35-40 years.
ATB - Paddy
Full funding is already in place - if by the end of CY23, Wyloo and the directors take up all their options priced between 10 & 12p then there will be another £64.6 million coming into the coffers.
There is also a substantial buffer built into the funding to allow for any additional costs due to inflation and/or increases to the mining plan.
Revenues will be forthcoming around the middle of CY24 - funding will not be an issue.
You are more than welcome to wait for 4p but at least get your facts right before posting.
ATB - Paddy
TBF @GGPThruandtru he did address that -
Shaun
But you know, we cannot be definitive on that (speaking about Enerst Giles) until we have the final access agreement. I think you're also going to see some activity on the ground around the other exploration assets, Panorama and Bromus, during the course of 2023. We want to start walking those opportunities along as well.
Hopefully we will get an outline of the activities that they intend to carry out at the various tenements. Havieron can pretty much look after itself now with Jimmy and the team all contributing to the FS - I agree that it's time to start putting some exploration dollars into the other prospects - if anything shows up at any of these then it would be a major coup for us.
ATB - Paddy
Hi Bablake - I think it was in reference to Panorama rather than Bromus but interesting indeed.
As Panorama is prospective for Gold, Copper. Nickel & Cobalt then I'm sure we can have a good guess who the major might be????
Anyone actually listening to the quarterly review with Shaun - loads of info and insights.
Interesting reply at about 40mins in to a question that he was asked about the Nickel content in the Eastern Breccia.
Also some insight into the way NCM might be constrained by their TSX listing in what reserves they can include in the feasibility study. Perhaps that is why they will be concentrating on the SE crescent now - to allow them to grow the reserves and make the FS as big as possible.
ATB - Paddy
What - the whole of our 30% or the whole 100% of Havieron and by extension Telfer? How long do you think it will take them to put something like that together? The MRE update would be issued immediately so the world would know what we are sitting on - NCM would be singing like a canary about the size and scale of it.
Sorry mate - your welcome to your opinion but it's not how I see it working out in the short term.
ATB - Paddy
Hostile take-over from who?
I can't see anyone wanting 30% of Havieron other than Newcrest but they would be opening a massive can of worms by going down that route. I think the time has passed for the opportunity for that to happen but even if it did - what would the counter offer from Wyloo be? - they understand the value of the project and wouldn't be prepared to let it go cheap.
We've been hearing about take-overs ever since I've been invested and it's less likely now than any prior time IMO.
It's just the usual, sell-on-news traders and probably a small chunk of short sellers taking advantage of the situation.
Personally I'm not too bothered - record decline development rates, resource still expanding with no edges found, ASX listing on track for H1, EPA mining proposal on track and due to be submitted soon, and while the delay to the FS is frustrating - when it delivers a much bigger and better mining plan with better economics due to the cost saving optimisations then it will be worth the wait, and crucially no change flagged to first ore, first gold and FCF.
All still looking good for 2024 and beyond IMO and that's without any left field news that our new "high-powered" board may generate.