XxxAccountant, if there was a RI this will be in the 20s or lower. I don't think a RI should be required even if the NA sale fails as they have enough liquidity to operate for the foreseeable at least. For me the fact that it's where it is atm is shocking. I hope this turns soon as it's becoming a real basket case investment. Personally i do think this duo at the top need to go & some new blood needs to take over. They can't seem to get the basics right. So many mistakes: Dividend then no dividend; poor outlook guidance; no due diligence on contracts etc... How can they justify their positions here?
Well, looking at the 30+ year SP chart the current SP looks compelling. Reading the RNSs i'm hearing the phrases 'onerous contract' and 'impairment' way too often. The fundamental business here hasn't really changed much at all. Taking on contracts they clearly haven't a clue about is downright incompetence. I think most people invested here thought it was a fairly safe & secure bet but the management don't exhibit that at all. The ROCE levels in certain parts of the business are atrocious & i'm interested to see what those new managers they put in place have done. They need new pricing strategies for a start in a time of inflation. Just seems to be endless excuses here: driver shortages; impairments; fuel costs; union strikes etc, etc... Garat & Stamp have to go. They've been paid huge salaries to oversee a fivefold decline in the company's market value!
I do think Cosmen has something up his sleeve with buying up the shares. He's been interested in buying this out for years. I do think at these levels it's a complete sitting duck. I'll be adding to my woes next week & adding a significant amount if it drops much more. Multi year outlook wise it looks a bit of a steal!
£375m mkt Cap for this is shocking. £3bn+ annual revenues. Totally bizarre but management entirely to blame for this & the market has no confidence. Got to question the due diligence which has gone into this German rail escapade. You'd think they'd learn to stick with what they know after the disaster of LNER in 2009. Amazingly poor performance. Come back Dean Finch!
Well, i've kind of been catching up on a few RNSs on this one. It seemed to be back on the up until the results were delayed. Seems a bit overdone to drop 30% due to the German Rail stuff.That represents less than 10% of group revenue. Liquidity headroom all seems acceptable with the bond refinanced, so can't see any capital raise needed. I think the NA sale would be a big game changer here. Hopefully they've got someone interested in that, if not i'd expect further weakness. I really think time for a management change here. They seem very sluggish especially over the German stuff.
Well, i took a sabbatical from these boards & SP watching for a few months but time to check in again as i got a new ISA allowance. Amazed where this SP is & looking to go further down by all accounts. What a farce this management really has become. I'm in this one up to my eyeballs & down mouthwatering amounts. Averaging sub £1 but it still hurts & no imminent signs of a recovery either. Fishbon. Yes i loaded on GNC @63p (it's my 2nd largest holding) it's more than double bubbled now. I remember i was buying these in the 1.20s when i was buying GNC & at the time had much higher expectations for this one. I'm mulling now whether to cash the GNC & stick it in here @ these prices. This is at an all time low nearly. The Cosmens buying up the shares is what gives me hope on this one!
People need to view their investments here in terms of the real world. I imagine most people commenting on here started buying here sub 120; then some more @ sub £1 etc. A few names have been in longer & tirelessly averaging down or getting concerned for their investments! Until about 3 months ago a sub £1 average on this share would have been unthinkable in the entire history of this company's trading history. There will be many holders out there who don't even know theses boards exist who probably bought these shares before covid or maybe in 2021 when it looked unstoppable going upwards. These people were buying this at £3-£4. 30p-40p down in context is nothing. This is a market. Noone catches the bottom all the time. Sometimes you can be lucky but trying to call a bottom on a share will drive you bonkers. We may have seen the bottom here at 55. Maybe it'll be revisited next week. Maybe we'll have a takeover RNS on Monday morning. None of us know. Remember why you bought the shares in the first place. That is the important thing. Yes, you'll get monthly or quarterly reports sometimes telling good news & more often here bad in recent times but the company continues on day to day. Today was a refreshing bit of respite but a long way to go to get to where we need to be but a rise is a rise on a dreadful market day!
What really puzzles me about this company is that they are producing consistently higher numbers on their revenues but the ebit numbers are not following suit. What i always lied about NEX/MCG as a long term investment is that their product/service offering is fairly demand inelastic & not hugely price sensitive. It is bizarre that they are achieving a ROCE of 20%+ in some areas but 4% in others. I thin this is really where the management have got this wrong.The pricing needs to be reviewed. Customers know they have to pay more when inflation & costs are increased & they will not switch to using the train @ 50-100% higher prices. MCG needs to up their game on this & in the end if people don't want to pay the prices then MCG should pull those routes or services. This is a business not a charity.
I really think some people need to stop daily watching the ticker price. These markets are really appalling & i know it's a big stresser & causes unnecessary panic selling. I alluded to this yesterday. Sometimes best to just take a step back & ask yourself. Has the day to day running of this company changed? Is it solvent?; will it still be trading in 10 years? if yo think the answer is yes to those questions just relax & allow things to play out. So many shares have been hit lately: SPT; SFOR; KCT; IBST; MSHL & so many more. I'd had those one's under my radar for last 3-6 months & all doing poorly. KCT has a t/o bid but most holders getting shafted there. Personally i bought my last tranche here @76 before last weeks dip so i thought i was sitting quite pretty & had expected this to be up near £1 by now. Obviously a rubbish RNS hits & here we are. In 7 days from hope to disaster. But that is it. 7 DAYS. This share like many others will need time to recover. It'll probably be years before these global conflicts & macro problems really calm down. None of us know what tomorrow will bring here but i concur with several on here this is not time to crystallize losses at all time low levels!