Was going to do a video on whether now or not, is a good time to invest in Shell.
A large part of the video covers the effects of the coronavirus in general. So part 1 relates to coronavirus and how that will affect your investments going forward. Including the real impact yet to be seen. https://youtu.be/0vcJ_NoXpnk
Part 2 which will reference this video follow shortly.
The results are out today. I've been through them several times, and rounded some things you may want to pay attention to. Or if you just looked at the headline results and didn't read the financial results in detail. I've picked out some highlights. NEW SUMMARY VIDEO just released. https://youtu.be/Lk-pnti8lRs
It's good to see, management are actioning a turn-around plan, and we are seeing results.
P & L -So no doubt revenue for the period from July to now will be adequate. Revenue is not Kiers problem. -The kitchen sink was thrown at exceptions in the FY result, so not expecting much extra-ordinaries, possibly a little more restructuring costs, or costs set against provisions. -Possibly some write-downs of intangibles (not affecting cash) So a profit will be announced or, a profit forecasted for H2
BALANCE SHEET -Cash flow positive, but how much depends on how much cash spent on the restructuring -Also dependent on how much asset sales there have been. -Chances are net dent has fallen. If not, then a forecast of Net debt falling in H2
KIER LIVING SALE Based on circumstantial evidence as per video below. -55% chance it has been or on cusp of being sold. -10% chance it was going to be sold, but buyer pulling out due to corona virus -35% chance the sale has been abandoned
The market has no idea what Kiers share price should should be, Its been yo-yoing between 80p and 150p for a while now, on no real news.
I have been preparing a video on "What to expect with Kiers H1 results" coming up 5 March, and have found something relating to cash-flow that no-one seems to be talking about. https://youtu.be/kxGWcZwAa-o
It may change or re-enforce your opinion on the stock.
Current situation: 162 million shares, 5.28% declared shorts (May be more under the threshold) That makes about 8.6 million shares short by my reckoning. Average daily volume about 1.4 mill.
So it would take 6 days of continuous buying and no-one else on the market doing so to clear the short backlog. (At average volumes). Each short bought back, cancels one out and reduces the supply. Exacerbating the situation.
At the moment, Blackrock - the shorts have been open for some time. These big rises in share price, are only small decreases in profit for now. But they have been reducing. GLG - have been adding shorts since September, so this movement is going to be hurting them. KUVARI PARTNERS LLP - are the most bearish, anh add a significant portion since June last year, they will start getting twitchy around this price. TT International - Have been steadily reducing their short since August last year. Seems they got the call right, and decided to take profits off the table and look for better prospects. The fact they have been reducing since August is a good sign.
Given the current lack of information, I guess they couldn't really go out on a limb and call which way this was going to go.
What was bloody interesting, is the writer thought "Kier Living" would go for between £200m-£250m. I assume that's after the debt was paid off. Not before, otherwise that would far exceed the market cap of the group.