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Why would Navitas delay SL FID now, assuming Shenandoah is progressing as planned?

I agree that a new JV partner is very likely

Daikihaku, the insurance only applies if the RoI annulment request is upheld (i.e. the RKH claim is 100% thrown out and the ICSID tribunal award is 100% thrown out too).

Otherwise the only options are a partial annulment, which would result in a reduced award, or the ICSID award is 100% confirmed by the ad hoc committee.

Most, including the insurers, believe the latter will be the decision (i.e. RKH's claim was 100% justified and the ICSID award is correct).

In that case, RKH would immediately receive €65M.

I am not aware of any further recourse available to the RoI once the ad hoc committee has announced their decision, which they are bound to do quite soon.

Why this delay? God knows, except that the process must be seen to have been scrupulously fair to all parties, the RoI is notoriously slippery in matters such as this, so no doubt there have been slippery goings on behind the scenes.

What is certain is that this is extremely frustrating, but if RKH had chosen to claim through the Italian Courts, things would have been much worse.

What do you have to say now Grim?

Surely you must have an intelligent comment to make at such a time?

Probably all of us are thinking 'If only I had sold/bought whatever', but we all know that would have been vanishingly unlikely at the time.

We're where we are now, so we should be asking 'What is the best thing I should do now?'.

The answer, before we do anything else is NOT to sell our RKH shares in a panic.

As I posted a few days ago, if you've got a bill you have to pay and no other means of raising the money, then OK, but otherwise DO NOT BE STAMPEDED INTO SELLING NOW.

As for all the things we might have done last week, forget about them, as we didn't do them and we can't wind the clock back. Maybe one thing though, is we can learn from the experience, whatever the lessons might be.

Agreed - there's a lot of headroom between the POO and what it costs to extract it from SL and as you rightly say, today's POO isn't as important as the POO in 3 years time, if anyone can be sure what that will be after Donald Duck's tariff bombshell.

But nothing quite as weird as this.

What I'm finding most unusual is the experts scratching their heads and admitting they haven't a clue where this might end. With this one, no one has a confidently clear vision of what they believe will happen next and where it might end.

In my experience, such an event is usually an opportunity for a bit of a shake out, providing buying opportunities for resilient investors.

As far as RKH is concerned, energy is always going to be needed, so we are invested in the right commodity.

I'm sitting tight on my main investment and trading the surplus shares.

Of one thing I'm certain, SL will go into production, with the rest of the FI region following.

Between now and then, there will be a lot of announcements to support the sp and Navitas & partner(s) will have a lot of work to do, and they know what to do and how to do it.

As someone else has posted, I see this as an enhanced opportunity for the RKH/Navitas JV, plus perhaps a couple of others.

But The Don said he was being 'nice'

I'm not saying it's unfair, but if someone asks such a question, they must have something in mind to have prompted it.

It would help us to know what those thoughts are, to be able to give a sensible answer.

MM, you ask what would be the options for RKH 'If unforeseen circumstances resulted in Navitas being unable to progress with Sealion'?

Do you have any 'unforeseen circumstances' to help us answer such a question?

All this speculation is likely to depend on who will be the new JV partner, which seems an almost inevitable development.

There could even be 2 new JV partners.

Invested, it's only 'hyper ramping' if there is no substance to it, but as we can all see, there is a colossal amount of substance, from increased oil reserves, to our current partner Navitas putting a lot of pre-FID effort and money into it, to FIG putting much of their administrative energy into meeting Navitas' timetable.

So don't dismiss all this as hyper ramping.

As for the BB euphoria, that's only because we've been waiting 15 years for this, so a bit of elation is not only very welcome, but perhaps, just for once, to be indulged and enjoyed?

'My underpants are starting to smoke. 51p!'

My kids say that means you are a liar. So what porkies have you been telling us?

I think we can let NN off, just this once, but don't do it again NN.

Quite a lot of market opening sellers, bagging their gains, which I understand, but OM could be announced any time.

BTW, B&Q don't have a branch in Port Stanley.

If you're buying your basins from B&Q, I wouldn't say that's in a 'safe & low tax jurisdiction' at the moment.

And if one sold now, with everything to come, where would one put that money to do as well, with reasonable certainty?

Unless there are some big bills which must be paid now.

Quite a few said they would be happy with 40p and as far as I know, they're still with us.

It's remarkable how one's definite plans can change either way, when circumstances change.

Whoever it was should be feeling rather smug at the moment !

Suggested the RKH sp might reach 50p by the end of March?

How ridiculous was that?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think it's even better than that.

If the annulment request is upheld and RKH receives €31M from the insurance, RKH will also only have to pay €3M to Zodiac to wind-up their Italian affairs.

If RKH receives the full €65M, it will have to pay Zodiac an additional €2.5M to wind-up their Italian business affairs.

So we win whatever happens, because Zodiac then take care of all Italian business interests.