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Agree with this. Will be interesting to see if Solg puts out a new forecast for when MRE 3 will be available. A few days delay won't make a difference but would be good to get a new deadline if it does not come today
Love your work Rich3R
I agree with every word
Addick, I think you are correct. The news flow has been particularly poor which can only be the result of a deliberate policy. I know some people on this BB thought Anna was poor at her job but she may have had her hands tied and left due to frustration
It has been a particularly poor year for news. Don't know why that has been the case. And it appears that the news re MRE3 will come very late in the year or next year. The market already knows the geology is very good. But we are also in the dark about funding and other drilling and other issues. It is genuinely frustrating but I do believe that patience will be rewarded and that there is a big upside here. I don't think things will start moving on the sp front for some considerable time. But when the price moves it may well move suddenly. BHP and Newcrest have no interest in the share price going up as they may want to take the company over as cheaply as possible. And while they remain significant share holders they may act as a deterrent to other major parties who otherwise would want a share of this. So while it was a big coup when they took a share of the company, their presence is not helping while the share price is low and they do not have any need to act. What needs to happen is for Solgold to demonstrate an ability to obtain funding on its own or to release some news which puts the onus on the majors to make a bid. I may be on the optimistic side but I believe 100p is readily achievable in the medium term. Good luck to all.
I know there are different views about whether Solg is headed for a complete buy out, or a buy out of Cascabel, or another option is being production. I have always held the view that NM will be motivated to get the very best result for the SP. But if this project is heading to production I would be interested in views as to whether NM as CEO has the necessary experience to set up and run an operating mine. I am not that familiar with his past history but thought his strong suit was as an exploration geologist who can make the big find and sell out at a high price. The geological results are now fabulous. But I wonder whether it is a mixed blessing having BHP sitting where it is now as one one view BHP has enough of an interest to deter other large miners and also to decide at its own time and price as to when to make any move. I am still of the view that Solg is seriously undervalued and has a big future. But I wonder sometimes if NM has got caught between a role as a explorer and a potential miner
Thanks for the news Padmaster. Can't help but feel this is the start of the upswing. Let's hope we get a bit of a real uplift out of this for all of the patient investors who have stuck with this. Good luck everyone
Looks like a very quiet day in trading so far. Not much will happen in my view until there is news about funding or a deal going forward. I am not sure that MRE3 being released will make any significant difference without the funding news as the market would have already priced in the fact that this is a great geological resource
Good points made by Not2sure. I have no idea why it could be in NM's interest to see the share price held down as BM suggested. Must be a very odd kind of reasoning behind this. From what I understand of people who have dealt with NM, he is incredibly driven and works very hard and wants Solg to be a big success story. Presumably he values his reputation and knows that many people are watching how Solg goes and that he is directly identified with it
I don't think we can expect a significant upward move until the Cornerstone mess is sorted out and until there is news about a funding arrangement (and no more sovereign risk issues arising in the meantime). This is obviously a great resource but I think we are looking at months rather than weeks before a big price rise. I am prepared to be patient but I don't think people should be disappointed if we don't see short term spikes in the SP
Thanks for the post DG.
Like you I think that patience will be rewarded. I believe NM will never stop trying. I also agree with you that there will be an upturn ahead and an end to the gloom but am unsure as to the timing. I think the Cornerstone issue has not helped and continues to be a problem (along with the others you have mentioned). I am also unsure, like so many on this BB, as to the dynamics of Newcrest and BHP and how their presence affects the SP. But the medium term looks very promising to me.
Thanks for your insights. I wish all long term holders, like myself, best of luck with this investment. Let's hope the dynamic changes sooner rather than later but it will change.
I fully agree.
Mogg, I agree that this is a likely interpretation. But even on this interpretation, Cornerstone would still be accruing a liability which it would have to reflect in its accounts. As the number gets higher so does the significance of the liability.
The other interpretation is that the provision is just providing that Solgold may directly recover the Cornerstone liability from its project cash flows; that is, Solgold can withhold cash flows (up to 90%) until the accrued liability is paid. This does not necessarily mean that Solgold cannot recover the liability in other ways. So, on the other interpretation it could recover the liability against whatever assets Cornerstone has and by just issuing a demand for repayment. The provision is just making clear that Cornerstone does not get to enjoy 90% of its cash flows until its accrued liabilities are paid back.
It is just another way of looking at the clause.
The last sentence of the quote in Mog's post says "Solgold may recover Cornerstone's carried costs to bankable feasibility study from 90% of Cornerstone's share of Cascabel project cash flows".
This suggests that Cornerstone is accruing a liability for 15% of the costs leading up to a bankable feasibility study which can be recovered from 90% of its cash flows after the time of the BFS. When the paragraph is read as a whole the meaning seems to be that Cornerstone has to stump up and pay ongoing expenditures (at 15%) from the time of the BFS but that Solgold is entitled to recover accrued expenditures that accrued leading up to the BFS once the BFS is extant. If that is correct then Cornerstone is accruing a liability now.
That is very useful information thanks Quady. Thanks for the explanation. I also see it as a long term play. There is no way that I can see NM selling out without extracting full value
Quade, I would appreciate your thoughts as to why there cannot be a takeover because of the distribution of the share register. Do you mean that NM has enough to block a hostile takeover? Also, I have a view that Cornerstone would be a problem for the majors and a mess they would not want to be dealing with. In any view, I am hoping we see a positive jump in the share price when the market opens
Fingers crossed. It is all good news. Let's hope the share price reacts.
I don't expect any dramatic increase in the sp until the Cornerstone problem is resolved in some way. That seems to be a real impediment to a breakthrough . It is however good to see that Solg is still working on the 100% owned resources
Monte and Addick, it is interesting what you are debating. I think there is no doubt about the quality and size of the resource. We know it is very significant. The only potential in geological terms is upside. I also have a view that NM is a highly driven, highly committed CEO. I think that any suggestion that he would be enjoying or indifferent to the current SP malaise is just wrong. He would want the SP as high as possible. What we are all facing now is simply sovereign risk. It has always been present to a real degree in an immature market like Equador. But with civil strife and a government having to move house, people will flee from a share. I am surprised the SP has not dived lower, as Monte says, towards 3p. If civil unrest dissipates and order is restored, this is a very valuable resource and company IMHO. We are experiencing bad timing as people are looking to the next fund raising just as civil unrest has broken out and the government is looking shaky. But anyone playing a long game like BHP is not going to ignore the potential here. The real problem is that this could be a cheap acquisition here and a major may take a long term view and pounce while the SP is low. As long as NM has the ability to block a hostile takeover then I would bet on NM toughing this out. Others on this BB will know whether NM can block a hostile takeover. I would be interested in what the views are about this. But while he can do that, I would very much doubt he will go cheaply because of what might be a short term political upheaval. I am still sanguine about this high quality resource. If the price gets really low I agree with Monte that it starts to become a real opportunity, albeit a speculative one.
Thanks for a useful insight Scrat
The claim by Archieee lacks any credibility. It is fairly juvenile stuff to hint darkly at having inside information, try to scare investors with it, and not reveal it or the source of it, all of this being premised upon alleged unlawful activity in relation to market sensitive information. It is very easy to come out when the share price is suffering and pretend to be Nostradamus.
I have been reading this BB for a long time and have only commented twice (including this comment). I find it useful when people express opinions and reveal their reasoning and evidence for them.
My personal view is that the data that is in to date, in terms of the size and quality of the resource, tell me that Solgold has a very valuable asset. That asset value is not reflected in the share price, perhaps because of the impending need to raise money, or perhaps because of the after effects of the court case and the untidiness of the Cornerstone situation. I am interested to read different views about it.
I am a long term investor and have a view (a personal view which I do not expect others to act on) that this share is going to be worth one pound at some in the future. It may be a long wait but I think it will get there. I think the best course in the short term is to be patient. Best of luck to those who are hanging in there.