Member Info for onsolidground

Knowbodyyou know you are correct - we were promised all that but then in the same breath there isn't a word of a lie in what Matt Moulding has been saying. His Pond scum post - highlighting the tripartite deliberate share price knocking and not giving back, "Overfishing", Too many unregulated Hedge Funds from all over the world plundering UK stocks to bargian prices, near zero FCA supervision (Too understaffed), No will to finalise reviews (now been is it 3 years in talking shop mode) etc etc etc.

But ultimately "one way or another" it resolves itself.

Write your own ending for what happens here. There are only so many clues that can be given.

AS1 I'm not surprised @ all @ the Lookfantastic calender selling out - I posted on here the Telegraph comparison of all the Beauty Calenders and it claiming the award of Best Value. That was then followed by other similar reviews. All it has to be said followed by the usual cynic posts back then.

Been a good buyer of @THG products myself in recent weeks. Got Xmas pressies from Cult Beauty and Lookfantastic and happy to report on excellent customer service and competitive prices without compromise on margin (Matching or just Undercutting Sephora for instance) and also a weekly Myprotein frozen ready meals regular weekly shop at Iceland.

The latest CityAM newspaper when I looked at it yesterday was also carrying a full page Glossybox advert for another value product and tell me how many cynics did we again have on the City AM purchase - when this provides FREE advertising to probably the biggest market in the UK - Londoners and those in the home counties.

I will openly stand corrected when facts prove me wrong and although only marginally - the THG share price this morning has actually gone up (thus far).

Here's an interesting snippet for you from a Share magazine article in the last couple of days as to why they think UK stocks are essentially ripe for takeovers and naming a few candidates (THG isn't on that list).

"Since June 2016, at the time of Britain’s vote to exit the EU, the S&P 500 index has doubled, Japan’s Nikkei is up 80%, the German blue-chip DAX index is up 44% and the French CAC is up 54%.

By contrast, the domestically focused FTSE 250 index is down by 1.4% while the FTSE 100 is up 15.5% and the FTSE AIM All-Share is up 14% demonstrating broad-based underperformance.

Heading into 2024, the analysts reckon many UK companies are in a position where their undervaluation will be addressed ‘one way or another’.

In 2023 alone over 40 takeover deals have been completed or are due to complete across various sectors suggesting broad-based cheapness rather than concentration in one or two industries."

My own take on the FTSE 250 statistic, through observation alone it has to be said, is that in recent weeks the Market Makers have been casino'ing shares in FTSE 250 companies to try and create volumes to make up for the loss in volumes elsewhere. Evident in large FTSE 250 swings and that being whilst leaving the FTSE 100 companies largely untouched.

The problem with this approach, and it has become clear here, is that it becomes self defeating as people have a good sense of the underlying values of the companies they invest in and the simply stick two fingers up and sit still and volumes then ultimately dry up to a trickle and creating even less volume.

Then yet another UK company falls victim to a takeover approach. 160% premium and what would have been a 275% premium off its recent low of 100p @ HOTC being the most recent and pertinent example.

The real groundhog day here is actually here we go again.

Another rant and guess what all and sundry come out the woodwork tonight and tomorrow and the posting levels increase and what was turning into a quieter bulletin board and an upward trending share price gets lively again, gets played on and the share price takes yet another dent and fall back, as is normally the case after such posts. then it dies down and the press then republish and its round 2. Surely by now he has realised this. There is no point criticising the "fast cash" when you are actually feeding it.

Although slightly hacked off I'm certainly not disputing in the slightest that there are some fairly valid points in both MM's, and IM's response, and particularly in pointing out the thinning volumes on the LSE. This also probably accounts for the large volatility, swings and imo Market makers naked shorting so many shares as they try to make up for those lost volumes. I call it casino markets with them essentially swinging decent shares 5% and 10% virtually daily to try and create volume and make up for lost income. THG we are all accustomed being one although it has to be said that with so much obvious undervalue it was recently trending down to all time daily trade lows and had become self defeating. Alternatively try Ocado, try PFC, BOO, Asos and many many others right now who have been swinging 5% to 10% daily on no adverse news. Ultimately though the trades dry up due to the point of obvious undervalue and what are good companies become appealing to foreign predators or they delist. In fact they virtually get gift wrapped.

I could go on all night but lets just dwell on one line in the post.

"Another 19 companies, each worth over £100m, have also confirmed plans to exit, with almost nobody planning to join."

Well stop #u$$y footing about and announce the intention to be Number 20.

Either that or lets have any Bids for the full THG group or any of the Divisions announced with the indicated price and accompanied by proper engagement rather than closing doors prematurely and saying "nothings for sale".

As I said earlier today - it wouldn't surprise if Mars were actually one of the two Bids that had been made for THG Nutrition. It's quite clear that they are on the acquisition trail.

Gives you the chance to reinvest the dividend in advance then if they are doubling the discount and you have the funds available.

*sitting duck*

Freudian slip that one. Apologies.

Kelso sum things up nicely Novice82 and it just serves to show how things can change overnight and in a flash. Recommended deal and not even a whisper leaked out to the market in advance. 150% instant gratification for shareholders.

THG Nutrition, unlike HOTC, is profit making and highly so presently given the massive reduction in whey prices and imvho would command a much higher sales / revenue multiple than the X2.5 attributed to the HOTC deal.

You don't even need a calculator or degree in rocket science to work out how undervalued the THG share price is.

Surely looking at the share price it can't be too long before the major II's start becoming vocal at these deals passing us by and without any real clear and committed to strategic update tor resurrect the share price.

Not surprised its bounced back a bit.

I did think it was looking oversold.

I'd be careful what you wish for JG68. PFC is a titting duck for a takeover at these levels and with an order book to die for.

Don't we just love how the FCA police the UK markets and create orderly markets.

48p yesterday to sub 40p one day later without any adverse company news. You actually couldn't make this up.

"are being accompanied by 3/4 % of a point falls. That says MM's to me."

Sorry about that typo

Manipulation at its finest. But use it to your advantage and if you believe so then buy in stages. All the shares being supposedly dropped onto the market are being accompanied by 3/4 % of s point falls. That says MM's to me. Nobody else. Maybe somebody across the back following the lead. But at some point, to make a profit it has to turn back upwards and even If alternatively there is a seller then they eventually run dry.

If you are not aware of everything that is wrong with the City and why companies are now delisting and heading to sunnier climbs and why there is a dearth of new listings then may I suggest you read this article by CityAM. It also highlights "naked shorting", some way down, who can do it and who has greenlighted it.

That in all probability is what is going on here. Hence my recent interest. Same I also think is happening at PFC and Ocado.

Alternatively if it is a seller, then they ultimately run dry and back up it goes.

https://www.cityam.com/why-2023-has-been-a-year-to-forget-for-the-london-stock-exchange-and-the-capitals-equity-markets/

Loss making in the last year and a Share price of 1.39p yesterday.

Recommended Bid today of £3.75 per share - so a substantial 150% premium in a flash overnight and the best bit is that none of it was leaked anywhere.

Picked up by Kelso on Linkedin and it's relevance to THG's MyProtein brand which in contrast to HOTC makes strong profits and would imvho command a revenue multiple far higher than 2.5%. The parent company THG of course being Kelso's biggest holding.

""We note the purchase today by Mars of Hotel Chocolat paying 375p a share against a 139p close last night, being around a 2.5x sales multiple and over a 150% premium. In our view this highlights the strategic importance to the biggest global brands from Beauty to Nutrition to Chocolate of the move to ‘Direct to Consumer’. In particular it highlights the importance of an omni-channel approach to distribution. Around 25% of Hotel Chocolat’s sales are online. The deal also highlights the significant value in UK smaller companies. Kelso’s biggest investment continues to be THG Plc the global D2C specialist in Beauty and Nutrition."

Just goes to show how shares and their prices can change in a flash.

When its moving up or down with the spread its The MM's. Probably a bit of naked going on across the back. But it becomes self defeating for it kills trading volume and ultimately their own commission or cut of any trades.

It's far too cheap for the cash it has on its balance sheet and a sitting duck for an approach.

So it's a keep adding at set price points and will add it to my monthly additions list and in that way I get to build a nice average.

Spk999 its handy to know that and probably worth posting anything relevant on here just to keep everyone abreast of whats happening and particularly if it is expansion, sales or new product related. @THG do similar and it's proven a good source for non RNS'able material.

PS I think the market makers are having a laugh with the share price after the excellent update the other day. They are shooting themselves in the foot for it is the surest fire way to absolutely kill the volume and their own living. Why on earth anyone would list on the Aim market is completely beyond me.

They did close all of their US operations after the pandemic as the expansion monies they spent on D2C didn't work out for them and unfortunately it looks like THG Ingenuity were actually a partner at the time. Pandemic now out the way might Mars be spying a better opportunity.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2022/09/hotel-chocolat-closes-us-website-as-it-directs-focus-on-uk-market/#:~:text=Hotel%20Chocolat%20has%20officially%20closed,warehousing%20and%20fulfilment%20support%20arrangements.

https://www.thg.com/news/thg-ingenuity-announces-5-year-partnership-with-hotel-chocolat

This is just being casino'd back and forth with large swings either way for no reason.

The city shaking out weak holders with only a short term or trading frame of mind.

Shame really as it has had some excellent contracts in recent months and one to die for.

Seems to be getting caught up in the Israel Gaza conflict but in truth doesn't operate in either country and if you know the legal basis of all contracts then its business as usual.

Yorek we used to carry just one of their products on the MyProtein website in the UK with I think two or three flavours which I bought one year as stocking fillers. Was discontinued though.

Can't comment on elsewhere and also on any wider THG Ingenuity partnership although Mars I believe is one company that we manufacture "own brand" for.

That should in all probability have been us imvho. (Mars did buy Kevin's Natural Foods around the same time we received two bids for THG Nutrition).

Frustrating though it is, if we receive more payback by seperate listing THG Nutrition elsewhere like the US then so be it.

Watched a documentary series once on Hotel Chocolat and you can't fail to be impressed by their credentials from their raw material sourcing to how they decide on new chocolate flavours and on the CEO. Got caught out with expansion in the US which affected their share price in the recent last couple of years or so, so it's a good price for them. Mars again on the acquisition trail although this time it's Chocolate itself as opposed to healthy and nutrition alternatives. Does lend the question - Might they have been one of the two bid approaches for THG Nutrition?

Yes he did categorically state "Nothing is for sale" and Moulding is perhaps the biggest stumbling block to a proper resurrection of the share price. Seems to be averse to routine flying in support of the business but yet clocks up a fair few foreign holidays each year. Courcheval, Dubai, Italian Lakes and yet we haven't even seen photos or had a visit to report on from the new New Jersey fulfilment facility, Bentley labs nearby or the office in New York.

And yes we are tied up with Hotel Chocolat as a THG Ingenuity partner although it has to be said, with limited product.

Pleased for HC and their shareholders as they have been through the mill.

And another bit of shrewd business being done by Hammerson by the looks of things. This ones behind a paywall so I can't elaborate further.

https://reactnews.com/article/hammerson-and-council-agree-land-sale-for-1500-home-leeds-masterplan/

In answer to the earlier question I watch the volumes cumulate on about 30 stocks all through the day on an active portfolio with Sharewatch through Shares magazine. Live prices. You have to pay for it. Alternatively you can just go into the Fundamentals tab above at the end of each day and add together the Buy and Sell volumes - total trade volumes can be relied on but which is which is never to be believed.

Dramatic switch around in its SP last 15 minutes.

Ocado providing Fulfillment technology to McKesson Canada