Member Info for onsolidground

Third Quarter update tomorrow

Will we get back over £6.00 again?

The recent placing subscribers were happy to pay the other side of 580p to pick up a swathe of stock.

Specimen

If you want any reply from me then I suggest you get yourself over onto the Kelso bulletin board, where you were clearly wrong and type me up an apology. Otherwise you are completely wasting your time typing anything to me.

Simples.

Unfortunately the mood here seems to be changing and with the recent 20%+ backward step in the share price off the Iain Mac episode only serving to add fuel to the fire.

If as an "elected" Board of Directors you can't yourselves bring about improved shareholder value (which is clearly there), whilst having rejected Bid approaches at much higher levels, or indeed listen to savvy stock market seasoned individuals with a wealth of stock market experience (Kelso) and their suggestions to enhance shareholder value, then I suspect quite a few of the present Directors stand a high chance of being voted against come next AGM, if not before.

Most investors, right now, large and small I suspect will be toying with pledging or will have already pledged the voting rights attached to their shares firmly into the Kelso corner. There are always plenty of other Directors, CEO's and Chairpersons out there who can ultimately deliver shareholder value on what is a publicly listed company.

So what next. Yes a numbers update but what also, with a high probability attached to it.

~Iain Mac in all probability won't be standing for re-election or will step down and be replaced.

~Kelso "next move" as they are after unlocking value - one way or another.

~Concessions

etc ...

The MM's are not going to get their 8 million traded per day down at these levels.

Not with the progress made to date and further talks ongoing, and especially with the workaround on performance guarantees and the large value and constant contracts that keep filtering through.

Won't matter if your invested for its what your shares will ultimately be worth in Euros and listed on far better regulated markets that is important. May even provide good top up opportunity if you can see that.

£4.00 post RI and so massively under TERP points to the LSE only having itself to blame.

Imvho.

They only have themselves to blame for the exodus with TUI.

TUI raised £1.1 Billion to pay down debt. Actually a good thing. TERP (Theoretical Ex Rights) was high 600's - yet the powers that be in the market took this share price down to 400p. I know as I bought. Hundreds of millions if not billions of shares traded in between. This despite an obviously recovering industry with EZJ, IAG, Ryanair, Wizz all announcing successive quarterly visible improvements. Partial recovery but not all. Announces intention to revue listing arrangements. back to about 630p on small volume. So many retail PI's but also II's and pension funds robbed of significant value. It's what happens when stocks get overfished and on that point I agree with Matt Moulding. MM's ultimately set the price so they learn the hard way as it will be no longer.

Why pay £10 million pound per year in LSE fees and all the bankers fees and underwriting fees for an RI just to be part of the sh #t show.

Its just one of the multiple dynamics presently applting @ THG with the share price so deeply undervalued. (despite 4 Bids)

Decisions need to be made and a way ahead plotted @ THG (Call it a strategy), or they will probably be forced, one way or another.

The latest non profit and revenue related 25% drop in share price off a decision to keep a Director in post - just adding more fuel to the fire @THG.

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/04/clear-advantages-to-quitting-london-stock-exchange-says-tui/

Hard to argue against the same @THG given the abject undervaluation of the THG share price and what in recent days was at one point a near 20p fall after an RNS which has no impact on daily business.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/04/clear-advantages-to-quitting-london-stock-exchange-says-tui/

Kelso are pointing out that its the going rate. Of course we can all pick our own preferred method of calculation but if that is the method and multiples being used then its hard to argue against it.

"Centred around the potential value of MyProtein, Kelso has been pleased to see two further industry developments in the last few weeks. First of all, on 5 July 2023, Mars Wrigley ("Mars") announced the acquisition of Kevin's Natural Foods for $800m, a business founded in 2019. Kevin's Natural Foods reportedly generated approximately $140m of revenue in 2022 up from approximately $100m in 2021, which implies a 5.7x historical sales multiple. THIS SALES MULTIPLE IS NOT DISSIMILAR TO OTHER RECENT SALES MULTIPLES ON ACQUISITION IN THE NUTRITION SECTOR..."

Just had a serving of the new MyProtein Waffles with Maple Syrup, MP Vanilla Ice-cream and a selection of fresh fruits and berries.

5 minutes in the oven to cook the waffles and bobs your banana.

Would thoroughly recommend.

Have a good evening.

Good Evening ProxLDM. Good point made on the goodwill side of things.

Here's what KELSO said on THG Nutrition. It's Kelso's working out and backed by the empirical fact of a recent deal.

" In particular, we believe that THG's Nutrition division with its main brand of MyProtein should be valued as a global consumer brand, given near $1bn sales, double-digit EBITDA margins and its increased product innovation in the current year. This division alone continues, in our view, to be worth more than the market capitalisation of THG. Kelso's RNS on 21 April 20232 highlighted this value and the names of some of the global brands that are increasingly shifting the balance of their product portfolios away from sugar and chocolate products to more healthy and nutritional ones. This is made clear when the 131 global consumer product companies, with an average market capitalisation of £85.3bn, that we believe could potentially have strategic interest in this division, trade on an average EV/Sales of 4.4x. THG remains valued on an EV/Sales of c.0.5x.

Centred around the potential value of MyProtein, Kelso has been pleased to see two further industry developments in the last few weeks. First of all, on 5 July 2023, Mars Wrigley ("Mars") announced the acquisition of Kevin's Natural Foods for $800m, a business founded in 2019. Kevin's Natural Foods reportedly generated approximately $140m of revenue in 2022 up from approximately $100m in 2021, which implies a 5.7x historical sales multiple. This sales multiple is not dissimilar to other recent sales multiples on acquisitions in the nutrition sector..."

Work out what valuation Mars would put on THG Nutrition with a 5.7 X Revenue multiple - that's a company that generated £675M of revenue in 2022.

Https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2024/01/boots-record-black-friday/

There was the Adobe data for both the UK and US for Black Froday -Cyber Monday and the month of November

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/uk-online-spend-rises-56-over-cyber-weekend-adobe-2023-11-28/

https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2023/Media-Alert-Adobe-Cyber-Monday-Surges-to-12.4-Billion-in-Online-Spending-Breaking-E-Commerce-Record/default.aspx

Seems to be on point and mirroring the previously mentioned Adobe Analytics online sales growth for November previously highlighted on here.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2024/01/boots-record-black-friday/

Yawn !!!

I was talking about seperate listing but so many permutations and things in the mix right now and all seeking truer Sum of parts values far higher than where we are at presently.

They're not inextricably tied to each other. As seperate entities they can do what they like. Makes sense though if present relationships work to keep things as they are

But the bit you can't seem to get your head around is that if MyProtein seperately lists with a valuation of £2 Billion plus , what then is the true value of THG Beauty (Generates about twice Nutritions revenues) and what is the true value of THG Ingenuity with all its global warehouses and infrastructure.

Go down the route of seperate listing one and you turn the focus onto the true value of the others.

Bit tiresome going round in circles with in the main the same non-holders and cynics but I have to say sub 71p was a steal imvho

Thats a falsehood Blinky

It wouldn't be the case if they all kept using THG Ingenuity.

Well that ones nicely in profit alrready...

Interesting that the share price is actually back to lower than where it opened on the last RNS update of the bumper contract and important performance guarantees and with further talks on that front already in progress for other contracts. 42p recent high to 29p no less and not a lot of accompanying volume today.

Might start again, in stages, to feed some some decent money in for the next update and spike.

Thoughts everyone?