RE: Rumours?11 Jan 2024 08:55
Every man and his dog knows THG Nutrition and Myprotein is doubly appealing for a takeover, partnership deal or seperate listing and that then starts the Sum of Parts value unlock. Personally for me Mars were one of the two suitors you mention Crafty. a) they would be serious and b) given their purchase of Kevins Natural Foods and Hotel Chocolat - just shortly after)
Never a time like the present for a Moulding and Co comprehensive update. It's what Kelso have been telling them
"Kelso believes that the stock market will not ascribe a sum of the parts valuation to THG until the board confirms, by way of an RNS announcement, that its stated intention is to demerge the three divisions. Demerging the businesses could be done via full, majority or minority disposals of each division, most likely sequentially (we refer to any of these options as the "demerger"). We do not propose to suggest the order of events, merely that it is made clear to shareholders that all options are being considered. Such an announcement would, in our view, help to close the valuation gap and so enhance the ability to achieve the true value in any of the demerger options. Our confidence in this approach was recently enhanced by the positive share price move resulting from the CEO Matthew Moulding's strategic optionality comments in the Q&A part of the Q3 trading statement. However, we believe comments alone do not go far enough, and that the market wants to hear formal confirmation of, and articulation of possibilities regarding the company's intention to demerge. THG's real strategic optionality is enhanced as the share price increases.
Furthermore, whilst the share price remains low, THG is susceptible to an opportunistic bid; this is a real risk without a supportive shareholder base. Another benefit is that such a statement will significantly reduce your share price volatility making THG a more attractive investment for traditional long only funds and stop hedge funds profiting from and driving the current volatility.
Liberum's price target is 225p per share but only when a sum of the parts valuation becomes relevant. We think that more analysts would consider increasing their target prices if a formal demerger intention announcement was made. We also believe that such a demerger would be highly advantageous to the valuation of Ingenuity in turning its internal revenues to external ones, enhancing its ability to win third party contracts.
In summary, we believe it would be extremely helpful to THG's valuation if it publicly included the following on an RNS announcement:
1. The board's intention is to demerge the businesses in the medium term.
2. The demerger could be by way of separate listings with THG retaining majority or minority ongoing control, or outright disposals potentially with THG retaining an interest.
3. The board is open to strategic partnerships as part of this strategy..."
Its not hard to get the share price moving. Strategy & Commu