@bebeto,
I would have thought that describing official proof of a mining license application, as a 'charade', is a stretch even for you....
@sw10000
Your comment, 'Let's not cherry pick , for people too lazy to read', definitely resonated with me sw10000. Particularly so as there were a number of 'cherries' in the Q&A. Most juicy for me personally though, the comments about 'condition precedents', was the single cherry that fully demonstrated to me, that Robbie has actually grown and moved on from being wrong footed by OCIM.
So IMO I would expand your comment, sw10000, and say, 'Let's not cherry pick , for people too lazy to read or listen'. As quite why any sensible LTH would outright refuse to listen to a Q&A session from the CEO of a company that they are invested in, just astonishes me.
Although Rick Rule was fair descriptive on the type of investor, when he described them as, 'I had a hunch, so I bet a bunch', individuals, who constantly misunderstand what is happening with their investment due to lack of interest in doing any company related research, who then get annoyed by apparent lack of progress.
Let's face it Caracal is a high risk investment, but has considerable potential, so IMO you are either in for the potential or out because of the risk. So like you sw10000, I believe that you should never pass up an opportunity to DYOR.
GLA & ATB
@roger65
Sorry to say roger65, but I have to disagree with your assertion about POW;
'Proves the model doesn't work unless one entity actually discovers something concrete. Just bits of paper worth very little otherwise'.
The 'model' is in fact working very well in delivering it's initial function, which is isolating POW shareholders from the cost of developing the assets from discovery through to the BFS stage. Without spinning out the various IPOs and decoupling the investment costs, POW would be constantly trying to raise new cash to develop it's assets to the next stage, or worse still selling them off partially developed and allowing someone else to reap 100% of the future value.
IMO not having to bear the costs associated with developing a wide portfolio of promising assets is a huge benefit in itself, and does add value to the POW model. So for me the 'model' has already delivered, and will continue to deliver, each time POW doesn't have to directly contribute to further development, but still has a stake in any future added value.
On the subject of Rick Rule's involvement with POW, if you haven't already viewed it, this presentation explains some of his investment strategy and rationale,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDOgfrgtA7k
Although Rick repeats a lot of what he has said many times before, and doesn't mention POW directly, my main takeaways are firstly the amount and depth of due diligence that he applies to his investments, AND, the level of return he is looking for, because he knows the risks involved. Because of this each investment he makes must have the potential to cover losses he might make elsewhere. As he says, he is not guaranteed to pick only winners, but he only chooses investments with a view to making 1,000% return.
So no guarantees, but at least his seal of approval on the potential of POW.
As ever DYOR,
GLA & GLA
A Producing gold mine at around 5 shares per penny. What could really be wrong with that? Unless, you are completely risk averse.
Assuming the much anticipated news starts to arrive, there will be room for an increase in the SP, IMO.
As always though, DYOR.
GLA
Obviously Folio, it is way too early to call, but I believe that Franck would be seriously upset with his CEO, if the term, 'potential World Class deposit', hadn't previously come up in the internal discussion.
Unfortunately the term doesn't necessarily mean Tier 1, but Robbie's suggestion that the 4.5K strike length, already confirmed by trenching, had the possibility of becoming a 200ozs/a Tanzanian style open pit mine. Only drilling will definitively show what lies beneath the near surface gold though.
What we do know is that once finance for the Kilimapesa upgrade is finalised, the drill rig will be heading back to the hill, and with $1.5 - 2M planned drilling budget, it will be months before they move on to VR again.
On the plus side that should mean that Kilimapesa will be well into 2000ozs/m production and will provide GCAT with financial stability, even if the POG drops significantly. Additionally the information from the drill results should allow detailed 3D mapping, which in turn should allow a detailed mining plan to be formulated.
GLA & ATB
@Gavster-NBC
Also there are two excellent prospects for an increase in MRE, Kilimapesa hill and VR.
The problem here Gavster-NBC, seems to be that if you mention anything positive, to try start a discussion you are apparently trying to ramp the SP, regardless of whether you mention SP or not. Then Lo and behold, the local flock of seagulls arrive to make statements based on half the facts, or to demand answers to apparently important questions.
Then should you try and answer the questions, or present the facts there is a complete refusal to discuss anything related the points raised and the perpertrators merely state that it is their right to state their opinions, because all opinions are of equal value. I happen to agree with that stance, but if someone is unwilling to defend a statement they made when challenged, where is the discussion? And how can any concensus be achieved?
As such it is hardly surprising that the Seagulls are suceeding in painting a picture on this BB of shareholder discord, when clearly some are not even shareholders.
GLA & ATB
@Bebeto,
Hi Bebeto, sorry I couldn't get back to you sooner, I hope you didn't think that I was ignoring your questions? Obviously if I could read minds I would have been able to anticipate your questions and added the answers into my last post.
Anyway I digress, as you were asking for help understanding the finance setup, 'One puzzle is that there is not a single potential funder willing to lend the full amount but multiple funders are needed'.
Which is a very sensible question to ask if you have little experience in these processes. Personally I find it easiest to think of the GCAT investment opportunity as a very tasty pie at the bakers. The baker (GCAT) would be happy for you to buy the whole pie, but most people (potential investors) are only interested in just a slice rather than the whole pie as they realise that they might want to try a variety of pies, or just not eat so much of one. Obviously some people might want a larger slice than others. The bakers problem is avoiding being left with a dried up slice which nobody wants. Hence Robbie's reference to options for the BoD to choose from is very encouraging, do you not think?
In many ways Bebeto, it's a bit like us share holders, why do people buy some shares in multiple companies, rather than all in just one? Or indeed why not just buy the whole company? Wonder why that is?
Bebeto you also mentioned that. 'Without funding the underground will stay mothballed' - This is 100% confirmed by Robbie, when he was outlining plans to reopen if post funding, but he did mention that the opencast mines were so successful at the moment, that the mine investment might be postponed for some time, whilst suitable ore was available elsewhere.
You also mention, 'the heap leach doesn't look to be capable of producing 1Koz per month'. Did I miss something? Has someone said that the existing plant 3, plus the single Pad of Plant 4 currently available, would be capable of producing 1000ozs/m?
Post upgrade projections, HL Plant 3 produces 2,343ozs/a and HL Plant 4 produces 9,585ozs/a which gives a total of 11,928ozs/a. Currently additional crushing and gold extraction capacity, is needed to maximise production from Plant 3 HL and the single operational pad in Plant 4 HL at 2,343ozs/a + 2396ozs/a = 4738ozs/a or just under 395ozs/m. All based on GCAT projections.
Finally Bebeto, you said, 'There's people here who think the 2koz per month pipe dream will happen straight after the funding'. I can honestly say I have not spotted a single person suggesting that 2000ozs/m will be achieved before the 6 month timeline. There might be ways of boosting areas of production sooner, but the new crusher is IMO the bottleneck to increased production? The potential to bring more HL capacity online should be unaffected by other areas of the plant being reconfigured.
Whilst your opinion is just that Babeto, the use of the term 'pipe dream' is surprisingly disparaging from a SH hoping to recoup losses
@Bebeto,
I'm fairly sure Bebeto, that little in my previous post came as a surprise to you, after all you are a LTH, aren't you? I mean you were posting here months before OCIM came and went and possibly even before Tanzania yielded, not one but two potential prospects for a spot of M&A, to add to GCAT's mining and exploring facets.
You probably even read the original prospectus and as a result realised how far GCAT would have to grow to fulfil, 'Its aim is to rapidly increase production to +50,000ozs p.a. and build a JORC compliant resource base of +3Moz'.
So, Bebeto did it at any time cross your mind that some additional funding might need to be raised along the way to achieve this, perhaps even causing dilution to take place? Maybe you were reassured by Robbie's statements as a major SH, that 'any dilution would be offset by additional value added to GCAT', that would more than offset the effects of dilution - such as the Tanzania purchase.
I know you have always been critical of Robbie, but you must have taken some comfort in that principal at least, otherwise, why on earth would you have stuck around holding shares? You did indeed stick around though, right up until a month after the 23 of January AGM vote. in fact you were quite prolific in posting in that period, which is why I am somewhat surprised that you seem to be approaching the AGM vote, to allow the board the ability to add a potentially large tranche of shares, as if you have just found out about it? And only now, you are both surprised and shocked in equal measure.
It does IMO, seem a trifle strange that you have reappeared so fortuitously, in time to warn us all of impending danger of this dilution. Just when are treading water still, but in much calmer waters. At a time when hopefully finalising a new finance deal, for output expansion, and possibly even landing a JV in Tanzania both seem within reach. As I say it is a strange coincidence, particularly as you clearly were not up to speed on any of the latest developments, but rather than DYOR, you just leapt in to share your opinions. Now your focus is purely on potential dilution, which all LTH's know is coming, but most of us think that $10-14M in non-dilutive finance, and possibly another $15-20M expenditure from a JV partner to fast track a New Tanzanian mine, might just offset by a few multiples any dilution brought about? Particularly those somewhat extreme measures to save the company from being sucked into the black hole left when OCIM pulled the plug on GCAT. Perhaps it's just me that thinks having shares in a still functioning company after the roller-coaster ride makes some dilution acceptable
Anyway Bebeto, it's always a pleasure to see your back, although you must be looking forward to your next holiday? I know that I am.
ATB & GLA
@Bebeto
I have to agree Bebeto that you are correct that Goldplat always found Kilimapesa to be a problem child, and if you read all of their annual reports during their ownership years it is easy to see why - namely UNDER INVESTMENT.
As a result the mine was put on care & maintenance every time the gold price dipped, because the processing plant output was too low to give enough margin on the AISC, but to increase output required investment in the mine to produce more ore, which Goldplat was reluctant to do, because if they invested their cash, that would have to cut their dividends. Plus an increase in mine output would have required a corresponding increase in processing capacity, which would in turn have required even more investment.
Yes they did tinker with capacity increases, mostly by shipping in second hand equipment from their other holdings, which is why the CIL tanks are wrongly sized and therefore inefficient at Kilimapesa. Goldplat's strategy was to search for a JV partner with deep pockets, or barring that an outright buyer.
So when GCAT took over and started tuning and improving what was there, the system soon ran out of steam. The crusher capacity was maxed out as was the Elution circuit, and the 2nd Ball Mill that Goldplat allocated had but never used, remained at the refitting workshop awaiting investment.
Hopefully it is not too big a surprise to you that there is actually a 2nd Ball Mill, as your last post overlooks completely the contribution of Ball mill No.1 - you know the one where all that higher grade ore from the open pit is processed to produce most of the monthly gold ozs currently.
I know I shouldn't be hard on you Bebeto, for not counting to one on the Ball mill tally, because Accuracy & Arithmetic are noticeably not your strong points. I cannot say they are mine either so I usually leave the number crunching to that select few on this BB that always like the challenge of actually working out what the GCAT quarterly report is telling us and trying to extrapolate past the obvious gaps in information. Personally I am content at this stage that Quarterly gold production is aimed at 1800ozs/Q or 600ozs/m and take note that GCAT team aims to up it's game on the HL front, even though the actual crushing capacity remains static for now.
The important points being that gold production is at an acceptable pre-finance level , with bills being paid and money going in to the bank. If the HL can increase on current levels, that would IMO be icing on the cake.
ATB & GLA
@sw10000
Thanks sw10000, I am much obliged to you for taking the trouble to post the information.
Without trying to read too much into it, the post almost implies that a new potential finance partner is having a close up look around, and is knowledgeable enough to know what they are looking at.
The best news IMO at this juncture though, is the focus on the HL, which in view of the crushing capacity constraints is very encouraging to hear, as Robbie did say, that currently it was the only way of increasing the gold produced above the 600ozs/m target.
Anyway, thanks once again, sw10000.
ATB & GLA
@sw10000
Sorry I don't use Twitter, and as such I cannot view this.
So is there any chance someone can post the contents on the BB, as it does sound intriguing - Thanks.
ATB & GLA
@SuePud1
Well then SuePud1, are you another LTH in the making, or just a Terminator sent through time by Skynet to erase GCAT from the future?
Seriously though, it's well known that you are, 'an avid investor in UK small caps, who tends to focus on biotechs, mining and oil'. So what is your interest in GCAT right now?.
Have you dropped in to share some pertinent technical insights, succinctly stated in your crisp journalistic style? Perhaps interspersed with links to additional 'share-talk' articles - or are you just delivering another round of altruistic lemon juice, liberally sprinkled on our collective papercuts?
I mean so far you have just dropped a one line comment that could be taken as yet another, 'me too' statement, rather than any real analysis of the potential financial consequences of the milestone steps GCAT hopes to complete.
What do you think would be the effect of GCAT completing a finance deal to quadruple it's current gold production capability, also perhaps, announcing a JV in Tanzania aimed at rapidly bringing another gold mine into operation, whilst at some stage, gaining approval for a new prospectus? How much of this, do you think that the Market has, good or bad, already baked in to the current SP?
New insights and analysis will always be welcome here.
ATB & GLA
@Zan_TM
Personally Zan_TM, I believe that what has been discovered at VR so far was a major factor which led the BoD to seriously consider a JV in Tanzania. I mean what would be the incentive to give up a substantial portion of a known gold deposit for someone else to exploit unless you knew that your resources would be stretched, because of commitments you wanted to pursue elsewhere. So IMO, once the drilling on Kilimapesa hill is finished, Franck and his team can concentrate their efforts on VR, so the gold deposit there can be defined rapidly, and if it is truly 'World Class', use the revenue stream from both an expanded Kilimapesa, together with GCAT's share of Tanzania to BFS.
As I say all IMO.
ATB & GLA
@Zan_TM
Vim Rutha
Nice to see that you are still hanging in here Zan_TM, as so many LTH's were squeezed out when OCIM pulled the plug. Anyway you tried to start a thoughts sharing discussion on Vim Rutha, but the thread was quickly hijacked before much VR chat was shared. so here is my attempt to restart it elsewhere, as IMO Vim Rutha could be the peice of the jigsaw that actually moves GCAT out of the junior minor category one day and elevates it to Mid tier - but I'm getting ahead of myself, lets stick to what we have been told.
13 Dec 2022 07:11 RNS Number : 4478J Results Confirm High-Grade Mineralisation on the Vim Rutha Prospect - a Parallel Structure to the Kilimapesa Hill Deposit.
Obviously there was lots of detail in the RNS, but Robbie said,
'It is very early stage at Vim Rutha but the thinking behind the exploration programme is to target a large open-pittable resource that could possibly support the development of a large Tanzanian/West African style gold mine. The 1m @ 84g/t Au in DD 005 is exciting as it is early confirmation that we have high grade potential at Vim Rutha, but I am most excited about the widths and grades in DD 003, 004, 007, 008, 009 and 010 and the fact that these results are consistent over 2km of strike'.
We know now that soon after this RNS the drilling programme was suspended, but trenching work continued, although without further independent assay results due to the financial constraints.
So the other bits of information that I am aware of is from Robbie's recent answers to questions specifically on Vim Rutha, whilst chatting to the Telegram group - which were:
1. VR is a potential prospect with a strike length shown just from trenching work to be 4.5 to 5Km in length.
2. The grades also revealed by trenching so far are in the 3.5 - 4g/t.
3. So the deposit COULD be in the 1-2Moz range.
4. The deposit is potentially exploitable by Tanzanian style open pit extraction.
5. Robbie also suggested that it had the potential to produce 200,000ozs/a
Robbie also said that the deposit had the potential to be 'World Class', but would take 4-5 years to bring into production.
Obviously although we do know that there is gold in the ground at VR, the actual deposit size is perhaps 1-2 years of drilling away from being fully confirmed. I was intrigued by Robbie using, but somewhat vague term 'World class', and did a little research. My initial thoughts that he might mean a Tier 1 deposit were quickly dispelled as as they are expected to produce 300K+ozs/a and normally 500k+, have a minimum LOM 20+ years, Lowest quartile AISC and often contain high grade gold. The trenching results are very encouraging, but how much gold is there at depth, will determine if it will elevate GCAT to the next level, or not.
Either way it is of interest.
ATB & GLA
I see ShadowCelt, that from your previous postings on other BBs, that you quite like asking questions. So why not ask your own questions, if you believe you know something that no one else does?
@JerseyCrew,
At the risk of being controversial JerseyCrew, if we end up with a new finance package AND a JV to accelerate the Tanzania mine development, freeing GCAT to focus on Killimapesa and VM exploration and development. I for one will be thanking OCIM for getting cold feet at a late stage. Even though it was a cruel blow at the time, which left so many of us LTH's high and dry, I will be able to see it as an overall benefit, with hindsight, and all the long months of being told how stupid we were to stay, will just fade away.
ATB &GLA
Also, one of the potential funders is behind the JV proposal, which would be a game changer in itself by funding the development of a mine In Tanzania, which was going to be 50,000ozs/a, if memory serves me correct. Some people focus solely on the dilution aspect, and ignore the significant gain in value that funding a new mine would bring to GCAT.
ATB & GLA
@mickey1122,
Here you go
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_wKOJni8UxY
ATB & GLA
Yes Watcher is a 'special', and ever-present 'contributor' on the PREM BB as well - you could almost say that he is to Prem, what Legalwolf is to GCAT, but of course not as analytical or supportive of PREM as Legalwolf is of GCAT.
In both cases they used to hold shares in the respective companies but now have strongly held reasons why they would not hold the stocks, which they both altruistically, feel a strong sense of duty to share regularly, and at length, with actual shareholders - and indeed everyone else.
I must admit that I have occasionally wondered what Stocks at this bargain basement end of of the price scale, they would actually recommend as being so risk free that they would be a 'must have' buy. Obviously everyone must make their own choices, but there must be something out there that ticks all the right boxes, even though I personally have never found it.
DYOR, ATB & GLA
Well I can see a 5,000,000 sell at 0.32 timed at 16:23:57. So congratulations for now Rob9 - who know one day you might just be kicking yourself for not holding longer......