Member Info for onedb

Sorry for the many typos . Touch screen to blame . "taking its time " not it's and finding not "findind" Haha . Plus the many other . Horror show that response .

Hey , it's taking it's time to rise adequately , but much like my QED trade , a mix of undervalued to NAV company and technicals showing the bottoming out of a very oversold position, make me get interested . I do seem to have a knack for findind reversals . . Maybe as the pattern is quite simple to spot vs other types . But as gold had broken the long term triangle and now stable around 1640 , VGM too is now breaking resistance easily so as this breakout is being confirmed then a good drive up to the 40s should be the minimum. Post that, back to the 60-70 range where I make it as the NAV level . Then this will need a good to improving update in Sept . Then .... Etc etc etc . But for me the late 20s was a massive overreaction . Poor results in companies tend to have enormous overreactions that can last for a while too . As this has . But volume on breakouts is always a good hint of a rise . Have to reach my target here , but also am keeping a eye out for similar stocks out there . Will as always post what I am doing next

Good to see the overwhelming buying pressure now , seem like only a minor trade or two went at the bid price or close to it .

There were 2 big buys today , but each and every time volume on the buy side increases they return the spread back down to 27.5-28 , it's a farce to allow the 7000 shares buyer to get in at 28p or sub that . VWAP ,has been higher on all days when volume increases , yet they peg the value back down ! Doesn't seem fair . Bet that when the 7000 AT trading is over this is then allowed to shoot up . So good if you want to hold for a month or more , but not so otherwise

Doesn't take much to shift this upwards or downwards lately/ Some nice trades came through over the week ! Finish today above 30p and finally the rally to the 40s ? About time

Cheers , for info . I've been quiet lately , trading has been slow past 2 weeks . At least for me , so enjoying the weather a bit . I'll take a look at SHFT . Gkp is nearing my entry point , last I checked I had 194 as my re-entry point based on probable support at that level , will re-look and see if it seems to still be the case . As for VGM , just noticed the 2 nice trades go through , 2 * 42k at 28.5 and 28.3 . Been a few days now that VWAP has been higher than the last traded price or bid ask . This will soon ease up , the constant doji's or white spinning tops are just proving the indecision , but my short term view of a bounce to retest 40-41p remains . Some big trades going through give comfort that someone shares the same view or knows that this share has bottomed out , and fair value regardless of any poor quarter is much higher . I make it around 60-70p with a break even quarter but improving development . I am keen now to see the next data update. Break even to minor profit with improving development will be great , another losing quarter and Paxo has to allow the Chinese to takeover and restore good management . It would benefit him too as he has 2.25milion shares .

Really crazy how influential a drop in 1p can be on sentiment , Till 14.00 yesterday volume was rising well as so was the price. 2/3 trades of mickey mouse size and the MMs reducing the bid ask . and bingo market dead for hours till now. One has to wonder why ? 10,600 shares traded today and totally killed post 2 o'clock yesterday. Are they on some order to allow the 7000share trader to buy at no more than 29p ? Or are they out enjoying a beer in the sun ? The market was taking this higher and should have been on its way to my short term target of 41p . So this is taking the mick in my book . Gold has picked up well too . 1618 right now

VWAP of 29.06 , and at 14.00 the market makers lower the bid offer to 28-28.5 , no more trades as a result and market stalls after a good trading volume day was in the making. So then to add insult to injury they close the market at 28,25 They probably left their desks to go outside and enjoy the weather or something ! the MMs have it too easy I say . They can simply take this stock up and down at will . I should have never left that world !!

Why is it a sad world ? seems a bit dramatic to me. ;-)) There are worst things in life than a Chinese mining company (quoted too ) investing a few million at 60p in a company that is currently trading at 29p ;-)) Especially when they invested only a few months ago and supported by Director buying too at even lower levels. . The way I see it , is that , if management keeps on disappointing , their time will be up and a takeover guaranteed. Wouldn't take too much for the Chinese firm to oust management ( as they are already showing intentions to double their stake) as am sure Sprott, the NY hedge fund , Blackrock and Bar Wealth would be keen to see a return on their investments . As the price is substantially below NAV, the discount is based entirely on negative PI sentiment. Not institutional . So as per usual in small caps you get a higher than justified optimistic or pessimistic swings. Had we been trading at say 60-80p and some one was ramping this stock I'd say , hold on, wait for the good quarters and the forever promises to materialise. But at 29p some bigger player could force there way into this and oust management.. Who knows. I saw Stratex (grades come out today) share price up close to 8%, market cap 24m . Now that is just a few mil less than VGM ! Go figure who is undervalued. Look at the last exploration grades for VGM and compare them to Stratex's. Its a bit farcical that we share a similar valuation . But this is AIM and hence the great 30/40% gains in relative short time can be achieved by spotting these inconsistencies. As they won't last forever but do take their time! Today price action is showing the predicted attempt at resistance ( 1st 29.5 then 2nd 30.5) . Watch if this breaks through as when it does it won't take long to hit 41pish. Just my view , no advice intended ,

The charts look like we hit what resembles a triple bottom the last few days, not an exact one, but it doesn't matter. Volume characteristics suggest lowering towards the bottom and now increasing volumes as price rises. Chart wise I like that. I'd expect more of a rise now and hopefully once we reach breakout level we'll see a decent rally. It could coincide with a decent, quarter update. But clearly from an oversold position a retrace is often the case . Candlesticks too are signaling a buy , MACD looking strong too . If we do get passed the 29.5-30.5 resistance then clearly another shot up to 41p is possible as there is no significant resistance till them. Certainly a good trade in the making. Lets see I am fairly optimistic that we can hit that level. Plus Gold is holding up well , moments ago at 1614. The reversal from a triple bottom can be strong so I'd be setting my target for at least 45-52p . Short term too. But as this is a small cap AIM stock all is possible. Would be good to see more insti buying. So restoring confidence even though we have so many onboard already. So maybe a good quarter at last !! Come on Pax ;-)) Even he holds a fair few now

Hi, I didn't say Property Plant & Equip are worth 3 times market cap , but our assets are. Infact its not me that says it , its the statement of Financial Position back in Feb 2012. Assets were around 90m . PPE are infact valued at just above 20m last I checked so indeed we are trading purely at poor levels because of cash flow sentiment. You ask why someone isn't buying , well infact the Chinese are at 60p . Plus someone seems to be placing continous orders of 7000 share lots. Equally I don't see Sprott , Zeisigler, Blackrock, Barclays Wealth selling. These institutions are in for the long term by nature of their remit . The mine was sold for peanuts because they knew that it was left totally flooded and in need of lots of capex. Indeed they are having the current low production because without development they are not going to be able to lower costs eventually and extract the 70-100k per annum needed . I also think that some inexperience in managing minor shareholders is to blame on Paxo . After all we were led to believe that 100k was coming last year !!! At last maybe managing expectations seems to be improving , 65,000 this year is in reach ( sept 11-aug12 ) though we have had the last quarter wobble due to more flooding, sept12-aug13 we are told that the target is 70k then the holy grail of 100k should be with us. VGM would have been cash positive without the flooding problem last quarter. So am expectating most of next quarters to really show improving returns. All this work and patience won't go to waste. I'll check BPC cheers. PLus note that its all my own views , I have now added a position and will look to add more post seeing improving quarters. I feel fairly bullish and feel we have limited downside here from now onwards. Restoring this to 60p is the minimun. Then from there upwards we'll have to see good production and lowering costs.

Gold at 500 ? You Obama and the ECB clearly are taking the same funny pills . US adding trillion upon trillion in debt . Remember only last year when we had the debt ceiling discussions ? The promise was to cut the deficit in 10 years by 1.2trillion . Well in just one year we've added it ;-)))))))))) HILARIOUS if it wasn't so tragic . Ask any saver , what the savings rate is these days . Money is printed at will , Gold No . Real rates are negative for all . But indeed keep your fiat currency . In the last 10 years you've obviously done soooooo well ;-))))) VGM at 29p is not even priced at the value of its trucks , equipment etc . The Chinese co invested at 60p . They are not fund managers or a broker fantasy rating , that is a real investment by a quoted mining company . If assets are worth around £90m and the market cap not even a third . We have a great disconnect , regardless of momentary cash flow wobbles, there are no debts too . Development phase will be the turn around for this 4.3m ounces probable resources . Not to mention that exploration was very successful and yielded results straight away , plus great grades . Gold the only currency they can't print . But found in great quantity in Fiji ...

Late pm interest . Interesting rally indeed . Didn't take much to move this 10%. Clearly they know this is far too low ! Close price of 28.25 was just booked at mid price , nothing traded there.

1615 now . Funny despite the accetable criticisms towards management , VGM is currently valued at around the value of Property Plant and Equipment , farcical really . If Paxo gets back to 1400$ ( as he stated post floods) for this year and the quarter is on target or close as he says then this valuation would be wrong on both NAV levels and cash flow levels . I can't see why a fairly big Chinese mining group with knowledge of the sector and post due diligence would invest at 60p and become a strategic partner . They are not some fund manager investing nor a view from a broker or analyst . Last Feb 2012 assets where around 90m and should still be. Today the firm is priced at 25 m . With the US and Europe are fighting to see who can print more cash , at some point gold will be worth more than $2000, the bull run for gold is probably starting , and usually buying comes in late Aug/ early Sept on its cyclical pattern. With over 4.3m resources and some of the best grades in gold mining all Vatty has to do is stick to its presentations and expectations . £3 will then become inevitable. How long will it take for the big investors to tell Paxo, that if he can't deliver it's time to move on and let someone taken over and deliver . At this price I am surprised that we have no takeover offer . But could be soon . A negative quarter again and patience will have touched its limit . Paxo out , new management in and we restore value here fast . The second option tranche from the Chinese was at 70p . So clearly they want in .

Bid has been rising ,slowly, indeed there are similarities with June's mini rally . Ichimoku both had weak buys signals that triggered a nice mini rally to 40p . With FED and ECB both meeting this week I sense that a combined bond buying could be on the cards. Gold rally would be inevitable Could be another opportunistic trade

I'll go check those stocks not sure I know them. Meantime any gold stock could see an imminent rally . Its a no brainer ( maybe) as its quite clear that FED and ECB combined will try to input more stimulus as fast as possible . Gold to pass 1626 barrier and I'd expect an rally in most Gold stocks , meantime its holding up nicely

that nice roughly 62k shares go through ! Thought that someone must be confident, yet now its all calm and dull. For those of you who like TA one slight comfort was Friday's Ichimoku Chikou Span Cross, which is a bull signal , weak one for now. But similar if not exactly the same as the one on the 21st of June that gave quite a good rally from around 29p to 40p mini rally . WIll history repeat itself ?

I never follow/knew MP but his TA made me realise that my chart time frame made me think of a descending symm triangle , whereas here its clearly ascending and bullish . Holding up at 1615 and bounced off the 1610 level in the hourly chart nicely late this afternoon. I took 4pips at a nice £/pip spread bet . Finished now. Hope we get a breakout above 1620. The idea of testing new gold highs and VGM sorting itself out( one way or another ), makes me quite excited as the profitability could really turn round very fast and the development phase in 12months will be well down the track. In his June interview post floods Paxton mentioned that come Sept 2012 the new expected target is 75,000 to Aug 2013. Up from this year's end of August 65,000 which he said (that despite the 2 cyclones flooding the mine )will be missed by not too much (let's see) .

True about the descending triangle if the candle forming is white to confirm the breakout then the theory holds around 75% of the times, but here we have a fundamental shift that could scupper all of that . Ie FED , ECB injecting even more funds next week or pretty soon. Figures today on jobs will force FED into action, ( remember Obama wants to be re-elected and the jobless figure is not in his favour). They'll do something for sure . At any rate my main support line is at 1550, easily seen on the 4hr charts and this is where institutional buying has kept that line . Resistance at 1620, if broken that will be great news for the bulls who seem to be taking over . In the next hour I see the bounce of the 1610 levels, ( 20sma) and then lets see if this has another go at 1620 tonight. Why did you get into SMLE . What is that got your attention ? Anyway nice tick up on VGM . Lets see if we get quite 3/4% gains on a daily basis . Mind you as I have been looking into some other miners , VGM sticks out like a sore thumb when you look at some typical mining ratios. Super low EV/P&P . Any management/production improvement would send this rocketing. I'd hope that some good buying would indicate that someone knows how they are doing, any positive drip drip upwards could be a telling sign .

that today's M3 figures coming out of the ECB of 3.2% and the last interest rate cut, make real interest rates very negative in Euroland. Another strong reason for going long Gold if anyone needed any by now. Same in the US.